Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W8 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Anthony FirkserTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.9 | 13.6 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 12.6 | 17.1 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 9.3 | 9.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.0 | 13.2 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 8.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.3 | 11.0 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 7.3 | 5.2 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.9 | 7.0 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 8.7 | 3.7 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.0 | 18.5 | +15.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.7 | 2.3 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.1 | 3.0 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.6 | 7.8 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.4 | 1.4 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 7.5 | 3.9 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 9.6 | 25.1 | +15.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.1 | 2.8 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.9 | 3.3 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cole TurnerTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Rod WilliamsTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.4 | 3.8 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.9 | 4.4 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 9.6 | 29.1 | +19.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.5 | 3.9 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.1 | 7.3 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 9.3 | 13.1 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 3.4 | 10.9 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 8.2 | 16.8 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 6.7 | 1.7 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.2 | 5.4 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 10.6 | 14.0 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.9 | 0.0 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Darrell DanielsTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 5.1 | 22.6 | +17.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 11.2 | 8.5 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.4 | 1.2 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 6.3 | 10.5 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Noah TogiaiTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jack StollTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 7.3 | 7.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 9.3 | 13.5 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse