Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Chris EvansRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cole TurnerTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Justyn RossWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David BellWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Velus Jones Jr.RB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Skyy MooreWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Henry PearsonTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tommy DeVitoQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Terrell BynumWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | MarShawn LloydRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Erick AllTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 10.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Willie SneadWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ty MontgomeryWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kenyan DrakeRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Byron PringleWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David SillsWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Juwann WinfreeWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Daniel JonesQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | James RobinsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Anthony McFarlandRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Mike StrachanWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse