Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W10 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 22.6 | +10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 14.2 | 19.4 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Davis MillsQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.6) | 11.7 | 27.7 | +16.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 11.6 | 23.9 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 17.7 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 1.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 12.9 | 18.4 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 15.1 | 27.7 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 17.5 | 22.4 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | 3.3 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 8.7 | 17.2 | +8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 3.4 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 13.4 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 18.4 | 40.5 | +22.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | 3.9 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 14.3 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | George HolaniRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 9.1 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | 11.5 | +8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 8.4 | 14.5 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 11.7 | 14.3 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 7.4 | 9.3 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 11.1 | 13.6 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 7.4 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Malachi CorleyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 3.2 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 7.0 | 9.5 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 15.2 | +11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 7.5 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 9.6 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 16.1 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaxson DartQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 15.9 | 26.3 | +10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dillon GabrielQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.6) | 12.1 | 20.1 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 10.5 | 28.0 | +17.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Joe FlaccoQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 30.7 | +13.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 11.1 | 12.6 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Geno SmithQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.6) | 13.7 | 26.3 | +12.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.6) | 17.2 | 24.8 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 1.9 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 10.9 | 16.6 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 23.6 | 25.6 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 8.4 | 9.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 17.9 | 20.0 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 14.4 | 20.5 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | 14.1 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 21.6 | 27.7 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 12.3 | 33.1 | +20.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 2.5 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 13.2 | 14.5 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | 4.4 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3) | 17.1 | 21.2 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 9.9 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 9.6 | 11.8 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 2.2 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 17.5 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 10.0 | 10.6 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 9.0 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 10.3 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Skyy MooreWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 3.1 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 11.6 | 15.3 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 8.0 | 9.1 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 9.8 | 17.0 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 5.7 | 18.0 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 4.4 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 3.7 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 11.1 | 17.7 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 6.0 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 16.4 | 18.6 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 6.4 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 10.0 | 43.3 | +33.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | 11.4 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 9.3 | 11.7 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 11.6 | 22.6 | +11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3) | 13.1 | 22.7 | +9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | J.J. McCarthyQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3) | 13.8 | 18.9 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 13.9 | 19.9 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 10.9 | 11.8 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaxson DartQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3) | 17.8 | 27.2 | +9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 3.8 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Joe FlaccoQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 18.1 | 24.3 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 5.3 | 15.9 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 6.9 | 13.7 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 13.7 | 17.8 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 4.3 | 8.8 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 21.2 | 23.2 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 8.6 | 10.3 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 24.2 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 25.2 | 37.4 | +12.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 14.8 | 23.5 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6) | 20.5 | 25.4 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 13.5 | 20.9 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 10.5 | 14.9 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 17.4 | 33.6 | +16.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 11.0 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 9.3 | 16.5 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 17.9 | +9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 4.0 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 11.0 | 12.9 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 16.3 | 20.1 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.6) | 16.5 | 21.7 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 21.2 | 23.8 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 18.4 | 26.3 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse