Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W12Joshua KelleyRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Cam AkersRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12DeeJay DallasRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Tim JonesWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Shane ZylstraTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Elijah MitchellRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Dyami BrownWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)7.50.0−7.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jermar JeffersonRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Tutu AtwellWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Trey SermonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Britain CoveyWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Kevin Austin Jr.WR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)6.30.0−6.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Dameon PierceRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Nick MuseTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Raheem BlackshearRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Velus Jones Jr.RB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Xavier SmithWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Zavier ScottRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)3.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Kenny McIntoshRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Brayden WillisTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ronnie BellWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Elijah CooksWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jacob SaylorsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)9.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)12.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Johnny WilsonWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Kendall MiltonRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12George HolaniRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jonathon BrooksRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Isaac GuerendoRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Sione VakiRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Keilan RobinsonRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Joshua CephusWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jermaine JacksonWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ainias SmithWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Rasheen AliRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Anthony GouldWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Javon BakerWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jacardia WrightRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Kyle WilliamsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)2.82.8+0.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Kaleb JohnsonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Dominic LovettWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jackson MeeksTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ben YurosekTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Efton Chism IIIWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Trevor EtienneRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Andy DaltonQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)10.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jordan MatthewsTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jamison CrowderWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Chris ConleyWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Alex EricksonWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)12.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Trent TaylorWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)12.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11David MooreWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Noah BrownWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)5.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)10.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Joe MixonRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)11.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11River CracraftWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mike BooneRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Russell GageWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11DJ CharkWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mike GesickiTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Malik TurnerWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Hunter RenfrowWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Trenton IrwinWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)4.90.0−4.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)0.9-0.2−1.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Alex BachmanWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mitchell WilcoxTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tony JonesRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Patrick TaylorRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Dan ChisenaWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11J.J. TaylorRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)7.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11K.J. OsbornWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jalen ReagorWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 7 of 28 · 2,793 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse