Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 1.6 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 4.9 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 2.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 1.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2) | 1.9 | 2.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | CJ DippreTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 8.6 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Giovanni RicciTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 1.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jelani WoodsTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 1.4 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Nick KallerupTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Giovanni RicciTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | 1.3 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Quintin MorrisTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 1.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Feleipe FranksTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 1.1 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Carter RunyonTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | 3.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 1.4 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 6.7 | 7.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | 2.9 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 9.4 | 9.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 2.2 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 10.3 | 10.4 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josiah DeguaraTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 6.3 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | 3.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Hayden RucciTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Nick KallerupTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 8.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Nick VannettTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 8.6 | 9.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Josiah DeguaraTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | 1.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 16.1 | 16.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael MayerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 5.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Hayden RucciTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Thomas Fidone IITE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Stephen CarlsonTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 4.9 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 6.9 | 6.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 12.3 | 12.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 1.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 4.0 | 3.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Gunnar HelmTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 3.8 | 3.5 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Feleipe FranksTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 8.1 | 7.9 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 6.6 | 6.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 3.4 | 3.6 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.0 | 4.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.2 | 1.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | 1.8 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 2 · 194 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse