Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Gunner OlszewskiWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4)2.318.2+15.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Gabe DavisWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)4.915.1+10.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Justin JeffersonWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)16.318.4+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Jalen NailorWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)6.87.9+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Alec PierceWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)8.429.2+20.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Michael WilsonWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)12.320.9+8.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)12.219.7+7.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Brycen TremayneWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.44.7+3.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Josh DownsWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)7.19.6+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Ryan FlournoyWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)6.511.8+5.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)4.27.4+3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Jalen CokerWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)8.116.7+8.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Keon ColemanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)7.68.9+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Stefon DiggsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)20.422.1+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Tyler LockettWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)5.98.9+3.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.75.1+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Dante PettisWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.26.3+4.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Scott MillerWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.35.5+4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.84.3+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)21.025.0+4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Michael BandyWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.03.4+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Kevin Austin Jr.WR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.915.2+11.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Chris OlaveWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)18.525.9+7.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Xavier SmithWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)4.010.7+6.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Quentin JohnstonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)9.014.8+5.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)10.719.0+8.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Andrei IosivasWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)6.28.1+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Shedrick JacksonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.34.0+2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jordan AddisonWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)11.212.5+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Kyle WilliamsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)4.05.0+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jahdae WalkerWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)3.15.0+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Theo Wease Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.213.3+9.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Efton Chism IIIWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.712.0+11.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)2.43.2+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Luther Burden IIIWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)10.127.8+17.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Adam ThielenWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)2.68.9+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kalif RaymondWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.616.2+12.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Demarcus RobinsonWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)5.210.3+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Scott MillerWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)0.74.9+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jauan JenningsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)15.218.1+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kevin Austin Jr.WR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.63.8+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Chris OlaveWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)16.936.8+19.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Alec PierceWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)11.624.6+13.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Skyy MooreWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.53.3+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Quentin JohnstonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)8.920.4+11.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Tyrell ShaversWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.13.1+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Josh DownsWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)8.911.8+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Xavier WeaverWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.43.9+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Mason TiptonWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.08.1+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Ladd McConkeyWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)13.214.3+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Tetairoa McMillanWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)12.619.3+6.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Elic AyomanorWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)7.38.8+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Isaac TeSlaaWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)4.015.2+11.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Chimere DikeWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)7.413.0+5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Tre HarrisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)4.89.4+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)3.38.9+5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15DJ MooreWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)10.722.9+12.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Darius SlaytonWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)7.79.3+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15DK MetcalfWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)13.414.5+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Terry McLaurinWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)13.015.9+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Rashid ShaheedWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)8.512.1+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tyquan ThorntonWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)4.36.7+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)14.716.4+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)7.38.3+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Puka NacuaWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)25.327.9+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)11.517.1+5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jaylin LaneWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.66.0+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.48.6+7.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tre HarrisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.37.9+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Luther Burden IIIWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)6.814.4+7.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Cooper KuppWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)8.711.5+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Jaylen WaddleWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)12.718.1+5.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Bo MeltonWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)2.811.5+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Rashid ShaheedWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)7.516.7+9.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Christian WatsonWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)12.624.9+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)19.428.1+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Jayden ReedWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)5.49.3+3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.310.4+8.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Davante AdamsWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)17.221.8+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Courtland SuttonWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)12.817.2+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jakobi MeyersWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)11.121.3+10.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13David SillsWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.99.5+5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Marquise BrownWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)7.810.0+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13A.J. BrownWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)15.535.2+19.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Deven ThompkinsWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.24.8+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13John Metchie IIIWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.25.7+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Xavier SmithWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.711.2+8.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Kayshon BoutteWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)8.413.5+5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Rashee RiceWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)17.829.4+11.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Devaughn VeleWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)5.923.3+17.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Mason TiptonWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.44.9+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)11.312.9+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Adonai MitchellWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.924.2+18.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Kyle WilliamsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)2.210.3+8.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Pat BryantWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)5.17.2+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Davante AdamsWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)17.023.2+6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Kalif RaymondWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)4.75.7+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Jakobi MeyersWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)13.515.0+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Ashton DulinWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.65.8+4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W12A.J. BrownWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)14.725.0+10.3✅Backtest ·

Page 1 of 5 · 479 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse