Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W8 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 15.1 | 13.6 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 14.7 | 14.9 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 3.2 | 1.3 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.3 | 3.2 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 8.9 | 5.6 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 16.1 | 22.2 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 5.3 | 1.9 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 13.2 | 18.6 | +5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 18.5 | 39.6 | +21.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.7 | 2.3 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 9.6 | 25.1 | +15.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 16.6 | 7.4 | −9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 8.0 | 3.3 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 8.8 | 7.4 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 10.4 | 21.4 | +10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 4.7 | 3.7 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 10.3 | 8.3 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 16.8 | 23.6 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 8.5 | 14.1 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 2.1 | 3.3 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 9.1 | 23.1 | +14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 2.5 | 1.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 14.8 | 7.3 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 5.0 | 0.6 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 15.1 | 26.4 | +11.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 8.2 | 3.8 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 15.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 3.9 | 0.2 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.2 | 2.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 12.0 | 0.0 | −12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 16.3 | 5.3 | −10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.3 | 2.5 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 13.8 | 13.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 17.1 | 12.5 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Damien WilliamsRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 13.2 | 19.7 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 3.0 | 8.1 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 14.9 | 6.6 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 7.5 | 0.8 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 12.8 | 27.2 | +14.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.5 | 6.6 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 7.5 | 6.7 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 10.0 | 4.3 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 15.7 | 12.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 6.3 | 4.6 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Juwann WinfreeWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse