Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 20.1 | 20.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W17 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected −0.5) | 16.7 | 16.5 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.5) | 16.6 | 16.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.5) | 16.4 | 16.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.5) | 19.1 | 18.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 14.0 | 13.7 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 13.8 | 13.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 13.7 | 13.7 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 14.4 | 14.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse