Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Missed tackles: every call

Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.

2024 backtest

461–500–67

48.0% vs 50.7% baseline

Win rate 48.0% (95% 44.8%–51.1%) vs baseline 50.7%

2025 backtest

345–372–50

48.1% vs 50.1% baseline

Win rate 48.1% (95% 44.5%–51.8%) vs baseline 50.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

59–66–9

47.2% vs 49.7% baseline

Win rate 47.2% (95% 38.7%–55.9%) vs baseline 49.7%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB568–625–7647.6%50.9%
WR176–187–2748.5%49.8%
TE62–60–1450.8%48.0%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5478–526–8747.6%51.0%
0.5–1219–234–2248.3%50.0%
1+109–112–849.3%48.9%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Missed tackles calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W15Mecole HardmanWR BUFFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Myles GaskinRB SEABoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Craig ReynoldsRB DETFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Patrick TaylorRB SFFade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15J.K. DobbinsRB DENFade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.8)11.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15AJ DillonRB PHIBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Cam AkersRB SEABoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jaret PattersonRB LACFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.6)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Najee HarrisRB LACFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −1.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Bam KnightRB ARIBoost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4)8.7-0.2−8.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ronnie RiversRB LARFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Hassan HaskinsRB LACFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Quentin JohnstonWR LACFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3)7.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Scott MatlockRB LACFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kenny McIntoshRB SEABoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4)7.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4)10.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15George HolaniRB SEABoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Isaac GuerendoRB SFFade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Sione VakiRB DETFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Trey BensonRB ARIBoost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Cam SkatteboRB NYGBoost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.7)10.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Amari CooperWR BUFBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Michael BurtonRB DENBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Ezekiel ElliottRB DALFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Curtis SamuelWR BUFBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14James ConnerRB ARIFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.3)12.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Dare OgunbowaleRB HOUFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3)1.16.5+5.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Joe MixonRB HOUFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −1.3)9.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Alexander MattisonRB LVFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Mecole HardmanWR BUFBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Miles SandersRB DALFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5)6.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14J.K. DobbinsRB DENBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.4)13.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Elijah MooreWR BUFBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Dameon PierceRB KCBoost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Sincere McCormickRB LVFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Zamir WhiteRB LVFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Deuce VaughnRB DALFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14British BrooksRB HOUFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Jaydon BlueRB DALFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Bhayshul TutenRB JAXBoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3)5.2-1.5−6.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nelson AgholorWR BALBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Ameer AbdullahRB INDBoost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3)3.70.0−3.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Ezekiel ElliottRB DALFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13James ConnerRB ARIFade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3)12.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Austin EkelerRB WASFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5)9.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Joe MixonRB HOUBoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +1.1)10.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Mike BooneRB CARFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYGFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Miles SandersRB DALFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.6)5.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13J.K. DobbinsRB DENBoost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.7)13.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Antonio GibsonRB NEFade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tylan WallaceWR BALBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Eric GrayRB NYGFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Deuce VaughnRB DALFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4)9.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Malik NabersWR NYGFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4)11.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13DJ GiddensRB INDBoost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jaydon BlueRB DALFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Cam SkatteboRB NYGFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.2)9.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Samaje PerineRB CINFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12D'Onta ForemanRB CLEBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.9)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.4)6.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.7)20.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Tyler GoodsonRB INDFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4)1.80.0−1.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Pierre StrongRB CLEBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Eric GrayRB NYGFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Malik NabersWR NYGFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3)11.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Kyle WilliamsWR NEBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)2.82.8+0.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W12DJ GiddensRB INDFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Cam SkatteboRB NYGFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.8)11.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Cordarrelle PattersonRB PITBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Michael BurtonRB DENFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ezekiel ElliottRB DALBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11James ConnerRB ARIFade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.5)12.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Joe MixonRB HOUBoost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.3)11.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Miles SandersRB DALBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4)6.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Scott MillerWR PITBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)1.30.0−1.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W11JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5)7.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Cam AkersRB SEAFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Khalil HerbertRB NYJFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Trey SermonRB PITBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Dameon PierceRB KCFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Deuce VaughnRB DALBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kenny McIntoshRB SEAFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jayden ReedWR GBFade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3)6.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Braelon AllenRB NYJFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Trey BensonRB ARIFade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3)7.4––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 2 of 8 · 772 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse