Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W4 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7) | 15.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.8) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.4) | 16.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.4) | 15.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 8.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.7) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 24.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.0) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected +0.4) | 16.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.7) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 8.8 | 0.0 | −8.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 14.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 14.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.2) | 18.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 12.2 | 0.0 | −12.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.6) | 17.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.0) | 15.7 | 2.8 | −12.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 16.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.9) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.9) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 7.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.6) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 8.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.5) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.7) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 2.4 | −8.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.7) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.7) | 18.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | -1.9 | −4.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 8.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.8) | 8.7 | 3.0 | −5.7 | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse