Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.6) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 14.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.6) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.7) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.4) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.6) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.7) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.5) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.6) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.9) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.2) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 11.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.6) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.7) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.8) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 7.3 | 1.3 | −6.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 8.9 | 2.1 | −6.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.9) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.8) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.9) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.6) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.6) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.6) | 11.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.8) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 5.0 | 1.4 | −3.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.1) | 13.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 12.5 | 0.5 | −12.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Velus Jones Jr.RB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.9) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse