Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Missed tackles: every call

Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.

2024 backtest

461–500–67

48.0% vs 50.7% baseline

Win rate 48.0% (95% 44.8%–51.1%) vs baseline 50.7%

2025 backtest

345–372–50

48.1% vs 50.1% baseline

Win rate 48.1% (95% 44.5%–51.8%) vs baseline 50.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

59–66–9

47.2% vs 49.7% baseline

Win rate 47.2% (95% 38.7%–55.9%) vs baseline 49.7%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB568–625–7647.6%50.9%
WR176–187–2748.5%49.8%
TE62–60–1450.8%48.0%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5478–526–8747.6%51.0%
0.5–1219–234–2248.3%50.0%
1+109–112–849.3%48.9%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Missed tackles calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Trey McBrideTE ARIFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3)14.613.5−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Evan EngramTE DENFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3)7.06.1−0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Trey McBrideTE ARIBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.0)16.023.6+7.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16George KittleTE SFBoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4)14.224.5+10.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)10.714.5+3.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5)4.85.6+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Dallas GoedertTE PHIBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)9.625.0+15.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Dalton KincaidTE BUFFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4)7.66.4−1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Dalton SchultzTE HOUFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3)8.95.2−3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)6.517.3+10.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Trey McBrideTE ARIFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5)18.510.8−7.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Dalton KincaidTE BUFBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7)6.814.1+7.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Brock BowersTE LVFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3)15.414.6−0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)3.17.3+4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Isaiah LikelyTE BALBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4)6.412.5+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jake FergusonTE DALFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3)10.88.6−2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4)4.56.9+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6)11.824.5+12.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Noah FantTE CINFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3)6.21.9−4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Cade OttonTE TBFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3)9.06.1−2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Tyler WarrenTE INDFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.6)12.09.5−2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Darnell WashingtonTE PITBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)4.910.7+5.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Brock BowersTE LVFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3)13.93.7−10.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8George KittleTE SFBoost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3)8.114.3+6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Mason TaylorTE NYJBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)10.414.4+4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Jonnu SmithTE PITBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5)8.411.8+3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Pat FreiermuthTE PITBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)6.028.1+22.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)11.312.3+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Jake FergusonTE DALBoost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4)12.023.9+11.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W18Jonnu SmithTE MIABoost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4)11.218.6+7.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W18Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)8.315.2+7.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W17Trey McBrideTE ARIBoost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3)14.330.3+16.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W17Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4)8.37.3−1.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W17Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.4)13.414.6+1.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W16Dalton KincaidTE BUFFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3)9.15.5−3.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W15Jonnu SmithTE MIABoost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5)10.919.8+8.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W14Jonnu SmithTE MIABoost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4)11.413.4+1.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W13George KittleTE SFFade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.6)11.21.7−9.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W13Jonnu SmithTE MIABoost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3)10.221.3+11.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W12George KittleTE SFBoost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.4)9.720.2+10.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W12David NjokuTE CLEFade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4)10.23.9−6.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W12Pat FreiermuthTE PITBoost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3)6.29.9+3.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W12Brock BowersTE LVFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3)13.77.8−5.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W11Travis KelceTE KCFade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5)13.62.8−10.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W11Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3)9.112.3+3.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W11Jonnu SmithTE MIABoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5)8.328.1+19.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W11Cole KmetTE CHIBoost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3)6.37.2+0.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W10Gerald EverettTE CHIFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3)2.20.0−2.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W10Cole KmetTE CHIFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4)7.03.3−3.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W10Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4)9.715.6+5.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W9Mike GesickiTE CINBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)7.027.0+20.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W9Drew SampleTE CINBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)2.811.4+8.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W9Isaiah LikelyTE BALFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3)8.30.0−8.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W8Travis KelceTE KCBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8)10.325.0+14.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W8Noah GrayTE KCBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4)4.25.3+1.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W7Evan EngramTE JAXFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3)11.28.5−2.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W7David NjokuTE CLEBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3)11.323.6+12.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W7Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7)13.619.3+5.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Cole KmetTE CHIBoost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3)7.98.7+0.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5)8.124.8+16.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Isaiah LikelyTE BALFade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3)7.83.6−4.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3)8.65.6−3.0✅Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse