Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Pre-snap motion: every call

Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.

2024 backtest

84–83–9

50.3% vs 48.6% baseline

Win rate 50.3% (95% 42.8%–57.8%) vs baseline 48.6%

2025 backtest

550–530–68

50.9% vs 50.8% baseline

Win rate 50.9% (95% 47.9%–53.9%) vs baseline 50.8%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

44–51–3

46.3% vs 53.8% baseline

Win rate 46.3% (95% 36.6%–56.3%) vs baseline 53.8%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR316–306–3450.8%50.5%
RB205–209–2549.5%50.6%
TE113–98–1853.5%50.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5455–443–6250.7%50.2%
0.5–1163–151–1451.9%51.0%
1+16–19–145.7%53.1%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Pre-snap motion calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W5Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3)8.711.0+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Mark AndrewsTE BALFade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3)9.24.2−5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Noah GrayTE KCFade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3)4.30.0−4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Mason TaylorTE NYJBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4)8.517.7+9.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Zach ErtzTE WASFade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3)11.76.1−5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Jonnu SmithTE PITFade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.6)7.92.6−5.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Trey McBrideTE ARIFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.5)14.912.2−2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Jake FergusonTE DALBoost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5)8.821.2+12.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W16Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.6)13.220.9+7.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W14Travis KelceTE KCFade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3)13.69.5−4.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W13Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)6.817.1+10.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W12Brock BowersTE LVFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4)13.77.8−5.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W10Hunter HenryTE NEFade (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected −0.3)8.22.4−5.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W10Dallas GoedertTE PHIBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)7.510.5+3.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W10T.J. HockensonTE MINBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)9.015.2+6.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W10Josh OliverTE MINBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)3.39.2+5.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W9T.J. HockensonTE MINFade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3)9.25.7−3.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W8George KittleTE SFBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5)11.224.8+13.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W8Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)8.316.8+8.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W7Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)7.817.2+9.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W6Cole KmetTE CHIBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)8.524.0+15.5✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 2 of 2 · 121 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse