Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W11 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 12.5 | 22.6 | +10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 12.7 | 9.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 11.9 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 9.8 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 11.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 14.8 | 15.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 12.9 | 12.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.7) | 17.7 | 9.8 | −7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 3.4 | −10.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | 1.4 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 9.7 | 4.9 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 18.1 | 5.6 | −12.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 13.9 | 19.8 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.6) | 20.3 | 21.6 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 15.1 | 18.7 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 16.4 | 10.7 | −5.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 7.0 | 7.7 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 11.0 | 16.1 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 15.2 | 29.7 | +14.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.4) | 14.6 | 12.7 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 12.8 | 13.2 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 10.4 | 12.6 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 13.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.5) | 13.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 18.2 | 8.7 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 11.8 | 10.2 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 6.7 | 7.9 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 8.3 | 3.1 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 11.5 | 13.5 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.5) | 12.4 | 7.5 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.6) | 13.9 | 2.3 | −11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | 2.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.4) | 10.6 | 2.1 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 10.7 | 21.1 | +10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 17.9 | 13.7 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 11.1 | 17.7 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 16.7 | 15.2 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 20.1 | 11.4 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 15.8 | 13.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | 4.9 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 13.2 | 8.2 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 17.0 | 20.8 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 16.3 | 23.1 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 15.4 | 7.0 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 11.2 | 6.6 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected −0.3) | 23.9 | 19.0 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 9 of 9 · 847 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse