Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W3 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 7.3 | 7.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | 1.6 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 8.7 | 8.6 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 13.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 7.1 | 6.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Quintin MorrisTE JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | 1.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 2.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 10.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 11.3 | 11.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | 1.4 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 3.4 | 2.9 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 5.6 | 5.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 16.1 | 16.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 7.7 | 8.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 12.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Johnny MundtTE JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | 1.9 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Hunter LongTE JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | 3.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.6) | 10.6 | 10.6 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse