Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | 1.6 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 12.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | 0.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Adam ThielenWR PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 3.4 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 8.7 | 8.6 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris MooreWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | 2.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 13.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 7.1 | 6.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.5) | 12.8 | 13.0 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Quintin MorrisTE JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | 1.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 12.3 | 12.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 9.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | 1.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.4) | 7.8 | 7.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 8.0 | 8.5 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 2.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.7) | 13.4 | 13.1 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.8) | 17.0 | 17.1 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 6.7 | 7.1 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Olamide ZaccheausWR CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 8.2 | 8.7 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 10.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 3.9 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 8.3 | 8.6 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 11.0 | 11.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 6.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 11.4 | 11.4 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.4) | 12.5 | 12.1 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 11.3 | 11.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | 1.4 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 15.3 | 14.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 12.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 5.9 | 5.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.9) | 7.8 | 8.0 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 3.4 | 2.9 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +1.4) | 21.7 | 21.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | 4.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.9) | 12.5 | 12.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 5.6 | 5.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.7) | 13.2 | 12.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 9.2 | 9.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 16.1 | 16.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | 2.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 14.6 | 14.1 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 14.6 | 15.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.8) | 14.5 | 14.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 7.7 | 8.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 5.9 | 5.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 12.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Johnny MundtTE JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | 1.9 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Hunter LongTE JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | 3.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 13.5 | 14.0 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 12.0 | 12.0 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 16.8 | 16.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 17.5 | 17.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 12.9 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 13.8 | 13.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Arian SmithWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | 2.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 13.0 | 12.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 15.1 | 15.1 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Malik HeathWR GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | 1.9 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.6) | 10.6 | 10.6 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 7.4 | 7.7 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 15.6 | 15.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 15.1 | 15.2 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 6.8 | 7.2 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected −0.3) | 16.0 | 16.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 17.1 | 17.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 12.6 | 12.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected −0.3) | 18.3 | 18.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 11.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 12.9 | 12.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 12.8 | 13.2 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 19.9 | 20.3 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 18.6 | 18.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse