Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brandin CooksWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 16.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.6) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 15.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 16.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −1.1) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 12.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3) | 15.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 13.6 | 8.2 | −5.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hunter LongTE JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.9) | 20.3 | 1.5 | −18.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.7) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 7.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −1.0) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NE, expected −0.4) | 13.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +1.0) | 17.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected +0.3) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +1.0) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.7) | 14.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 4.0 | 1.5 | −2.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Robbie ChosenWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.8) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.6) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.4) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | River CracraftWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.7) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | 3.5 | −1.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 7.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 8.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.7) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.1) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 8.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaylin LaneWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Devin NealRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.7) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse