Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 0.8 | 3.7 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 8.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 18.0 | 4.0 | −14.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 16.4 | 13.2 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ronnie BellWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 16.6 | 17.8 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 4.9 | 11.5 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 3.2 | 4.0 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 4.8 | 2.6 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 11.9 | 24.3 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 3.5 | 1.9 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 7.5 | 10.6 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 5.5 | 5.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Robbie ChosenWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 13.2 | 20.3 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 5.7 | 0.4 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 15.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 17.6 | 16.9 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kenyan DrakeRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 7.0 | 6.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 14.8 | 11.8 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 10.2 | 21.3 | +11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | River CracraftWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Braxton BerriosWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 1.7 | 1.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 12.3 | 23.7 | +11.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.4 | 3.5 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 6.1 | 2.3 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyree JacksonTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 7.2 | 2.8 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 12.8 | 15.4 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 18.8 | 21.7 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jakob JohnsonRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James RobinsonRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 13.0 | 21.3 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Lawrence CagerTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 14.6 | 25.2 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 16.5 | 19.0 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 13.0 | 9.4 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 7.7 | 5.6 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 18.1 | 5.9 | −12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 10.0 | 11.3 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jack StollTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 2.9 | 2.3 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 17.1 | 12.3 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Samori ToureWR GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 13.3 | 9.6 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James MitchellTE DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 8.2 | 6.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 4.3 | 9.5 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 8.2 | 2.6 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 10.4 | 8.7 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 7.4 | 7.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Henry PearsonTE GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tommy DeVitoQB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse