Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W2 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 22.9 | 23.3 | +0.4 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W17 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 2.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Samaje PerineRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 5.3 | 5.4 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 17.1 | 17.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 2.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 1.7 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | 2.8 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 4.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | AJ DillonRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 2.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.1 | 2.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 12.3 | 12.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.5 | 1.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 12.5 | 12.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 5.5 | 5.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 5.4 | 5.9 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 2.6 | 2.3 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 2.9 | 2.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.3 | 0.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 3.0 | 3.1 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 0.8 | 0.5 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse