Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

Position	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
WR	211–119–21	63.9%	63.7%
TE	104–73–33	58.8%	60.9%
RB	122–71–21	63.2%	61.8%
QB	29–39–5	42.6%	50.4%

Expected effect (PPR)	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
flag	241–151–41	61.5%	61.4%
0.25–0.5	214–130–35	62.2%	62.4%
0.5–1	11–21–4	34.4%	50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll 2024 2025 2026

SourceAll Backtest Backtest (after the fact)Live

PositionAll QB RB WR TE

ResultAll ✅ Win ❌ Loss Push Void Not graded

Short week calls, newest first
Week	Player	Call	Proj	Actual	Margin	Result	Source · made
2026 W4	DK MetcalfWR PIT	Fade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)	12.5	16.5	+4.0	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-01 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Jerry JeudyWR CLE	Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)	5.3	6.6	+1.3	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-01 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Roman WilsonWR PIT	Fade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)	6.3	16.4	+10.1	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-01 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	Denzel BostonWR CLE	Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)	9.5	12.9	+3.4	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-01 22:45 UTC
2026 W4	KC ConcepcionWR CLE	Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)	8.8	11.4	+2.6	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-01 22:45 UTC
2026 W3	Drake LondonWR ATL	Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)	12.0	28.4	+16.4	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-24 22:45 UTC
2026 W3	Skyy MooreWR GB	Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)	3.1	6.1	+3.0	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-24 22:45 UTC
2026 W3	Christian WatsonWR GB	Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)	15.9	22.6	+6.7	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-24 22:45 UTC
2026 W3	Matthew GoldenWR GB	Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)	11.5	21.0	+9.5	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-24 22:45 UTC
2026 W3	J. Michael SturdivantWR GB	Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)	1.1	5.2	+4.1	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-24 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET	Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)	18.2	35.2	+17.0	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Josh PalmerWR BUF	Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)	4.8	11.3	+6.5	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Keon ColemanWR BUF	Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)	7.6	12.3	+4.7	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC
2026 W2	Isaac TeSlaaWR DET	Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)	3.9	4.6	+0.7	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-17 22:45 UTC

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse