Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Aaron RodgersQB PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +1.0)14.222.0+7.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4DK MetcalfWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)12.516.5+4.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jerry JeudyWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)5.36.6+1.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Pat FreiermuthTE PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.7)6.510.7+4.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Darnell WashingtonTE PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.7)5.011.7+6.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Roman WilsonWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)6.316.4+10.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.7)8.911.7+2.8❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.2)9.721.6+11.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Denzel BostonWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)9.512.9+3.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4KC ConcepcionWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)8.811.4+2.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Austin HooperTE ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.7)2.69.1+6.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jordan LoveQB GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +1.0)16.918.5+1.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Drake LondonWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)12.028.4+16.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Brian RobinsonRB ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.2)5.811.0+5.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Skyy MooreWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)3.16.1+3.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Christian WatsonWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)15.922.6+6.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Bijan RobinsonRB ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.2)19.335.3+16.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Matthew GoldenWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)11.521.0+9.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3J. Michael SturdivantWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)1.15.2+4.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jared GoffQB DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +1.0)16.729.8+13.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Josh AllenQB BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +1.0)23.640.8+17.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Dawson KnoxTE BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.7)6.58.5+1.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)18.235.2+17.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Josh PalmerWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)4.811.3+6.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2James CookRB BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.2)19.920.9+1.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Dalton KincaidTE BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.7)8.922.5+13.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)10.817.2+6.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Keon ColemanWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)7.612.3+4.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Isaac TeSlaaWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)3.94.6+0.7❌Backtest (after the fact) ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse