Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
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first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
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no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W6 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 16.7 | 7.9 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Hunter RenfrowWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 6.4 | 1.7 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 8.8 | 1.8 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4) | 9.3 | 1.8 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Brycen TremayneWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 12.8 | 8.6 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 23.4 | 4.8 | −18.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 8.9 | 3.1 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | LaJohntay WesterWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 16.3 | 12.7 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Josh ReynoldsWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 7.0 | 0.0 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 5.0 | 1.8 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | 1.1 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 12.2 | 7.8 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 7.0 | 4.1 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Arian SmithWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | James ProcheWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 15.2 | 12.3 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 8.6 | 6.6 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 13.4 | 9.7 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 5.4 | 3.4 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 6.2 | 5.3 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh ReynoldsWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 6.7 | 1.9 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mason KinseyWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 7.2 | 6.7 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Devin DuvernayWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 3.1 | 1.4 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 8.8 | 1.1 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 11.4 | 5.5 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 5.7 | 1.3 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bryce OliverWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 7.1 | 4.7 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 9.3 | 8.4 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 16.9 | 15.3 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 9.4 | 8.6 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 16.2 | 12.2 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 5.5 | 0.0 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | James ProcheWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 13.8 | 9.8 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 9.7 | 1.9 | −7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 6.6 | 2.7 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 9.6 | 0.0 | −9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 10.3 | 6.2 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 9.6 | 0.0 | −9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 6.0 | 2.9 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 5.6 | -3.0 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | David MooreWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 6.7 | 4.5 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 22.0 | 8.3 | −13.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dan ChisenaWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 4.8 | 1.5 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 9.1 | 5.9 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | River CracraftWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 12.5 | 8.8 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 9.9 | 5.7 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 7.2 | 6.5 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 2.2 | 1.2 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 5.0 | 1.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 5.5 | 3.2 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 11.5 | 6.8 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 7.3 | 0.0 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Isaiah WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 4.8 | 0.0 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 10.5 | 4.9 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 10.8 | 5.7 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 14.5 | 11.2 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 8.1 | 0.0 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 6.8 | 4.1 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 9.4 | 7.9 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 9.8 | 2.0 | −7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Amari CooperWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL) | 13.7 | 3.6 | −10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs ARI) | 11.8 | 3.5 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs ARI) | 8.6 | 2.9 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 18.7 | 13.6 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL) | 9.7 | 3.9 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 3.1 | 2.2 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 8.1 | 7.5 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL) | 7.6 | 1.3 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 2 of 2 · 194 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse