Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 0.7 | 2.1 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.8 | 1.8 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zach DavidsonTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jack StollTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brandon SmithWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mac JonesQB JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 10.8 | 17.2 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 8.8 | 1.1 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | David BellWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 11.4 | 5.5 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kyle PhilipsWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 5.7 | 1.3 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tay MartinWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Treylon BurksWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 8.0 | 10.9 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 10.4 | 3.8 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 5.6 | 12.1 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 0.9 | 13.9 | +13.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 2.3 | 1.8 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 8.9 | 4.4 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jha'Quan JacksonWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Joshua CephusWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bryce OliverWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 4.7 | 7.0 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 15.0 | 23.9 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 8.7 | 11.7 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 13.2 | 15.4 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.6 | 7.1 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 3.8 | 5.4 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 11.1 | 13.8 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 22.3 | 20.5 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 7.1 | 4.7 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 9.3 | 8.4 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.5 | 4.5 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 9.5 | 4.6 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 8.7 | 10.5 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 7.8 | 11.9 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 16.9 | 15.3 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 12.7 | 6.7 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 9.4 | 8.6 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 13.3 | -0.4 | −13.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Blake BellTE KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 3.0 | 7.7 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 16.9 | 15.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Richie JamesWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 16.2 | 12.2 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 3.9 | 6.0 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 5.5 | 0.0 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | James ProcheWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 13.8 | 9.8 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse