Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
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first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
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no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W16 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 8.0 | 1.2 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 6.3 | 2.0 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 8.6 | 4.1 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected +0.5) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 7.2 | 0.0 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected +0.5) | 8.0 | 0.0 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected +0.5) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 11.5 | 8.8 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 5.2 | 1.6 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected +0.5) | 5.1 | 2.4 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 9.6 | 4.7 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 5.1 | 0.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 6.6 | 5.8 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | 2.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 7.9 | 0.0 | −7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 6.2 | 1.7 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected +0.5) | 10.7 | 4.4 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected +0.5) | 6.7 | 3.3 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 4.7 | 2.8 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 7.1 | 2.9 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected +0.5) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 5.4 | 3.5 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cade OttonTE TB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 8.3 | 4.8 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | 0.9 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5) | 9.0 | 6.6 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected +0.5) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 8.1 | 4.6 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected +0.5) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected +0.5) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 11.8 | 4.0 | −7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5) | 4.3 | 1.5 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 10.0 | 7.3 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected +0.5) | 7.6 | 0.0 | −7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | 1.1 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected +0.5) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 11.0 | 7.6 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 9.3 | 6.6 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | James MitchellTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 4.1 | 2.6 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 13.4 | 12.3 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 2.9 | 1.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 2.5 | 1.7 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 11.0 | 9.5 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 5.1 | 3.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 7.7 | 6.8 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.9 | 1.1 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 4.7 | 1.4 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 8.9 | 4.4 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 9.5 | 4.6 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 12.7 | 6.7 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 2.2 | 1.3 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 2.6 | 1.1 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ben SimsTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 8.9 | 4.8 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR) | 8.9 | 6.4 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 2 · 108 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse