Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
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first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
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no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 0.4 | 2.6 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 11.0 | 9.5 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 7.0 | 18.0 | +11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 11.9 | 15.4 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 5.1 | 3.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 7.7 | 6.8 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 1.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 0.9 | 7.7 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.9 | 1.1 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 1.8 | 7.8 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 10.5 | 11.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 6.1 | 21.7 | +15.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 6.3 | 10.9 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 4.7 | 1.4 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zach DavidsonTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jack StollTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 8.0 | 10.9 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 2.3 | 1.8 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 8.9 | 4.4 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.6 | 7.1 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 11.1 | 13.8 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 9.5 | 4.6 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 7.8 | 11.9 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 12.7 | 6.7 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Blake BellTE KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 3.9 | 6.0 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 3.5 | 10.0 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 5.4 | 10.1 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 3.1 | 7.7 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 2.9 | 2.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 1.4 | 8.5 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jared WileyTE KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Noah TogiaiTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 5.4 | 7.3 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 6.7 | 10.6 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 8.3 | 28.1 | +19.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 2.2 | 1.3 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jack StollTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 2.2 | 4.8 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | John ShenkerTE LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 12.4 | 31.3 | +18.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 2.6 | 1.1 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 2 · 139 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse