Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
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first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
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no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W16 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 13.1 | 14.5 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 3.3 | 7.7 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 19.4 | 23.6 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 2.1 | 3.1 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 24.7 | 46.5 | +21.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Malachi CorleyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 1.4 | 6.1 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 1.0 | 1.6 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 1.7 | 7.0 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected −0.4) | 0.9 | 4.9 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 15.5 | 35.2 | +19.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 9.5 | 13.9 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Gage LarvadainWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | 4.3 | +3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Luther Burden IIIWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 4.8 | 7.6 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 6.9 | 10.1 | +3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4) | 2.2 | 10.7 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 13.7 | 15.3 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 12.6 | 19.7 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected −0.4) | 4.0 | 6.3 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 9.4 | 20.6 | +11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −0.4) | 2.4 | 19.0 | +16.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4) | 3.1 | 3.8 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 5.7 | 8.2 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Malachi CorleyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 1.3 | 2.9 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Savion WilliamsWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 2.5 | 4.3 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4) | 15.9 | 21.4 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4) | 13.5 | 16.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 10.8 | 13.9 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 5.6 | 7.3 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 2.1 | 4.6 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Van JeffersonWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | 8.1 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | 6.5 | +5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 10.4 | 13.5 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 2.0 | 3.3 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 6.3 | 8.0 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Malachi CorleyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 0.8 | 3.7 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chimere DikeWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected −0.4) | 5.2 | 16.9 | +11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4) | 18.5 | 31.8 | +13.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 4.3 | 5.3 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 14.7 | 17.9 | +3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 5.0 | 6.7 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 0.4 | 1.7 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 16.5 | 20.2 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 10.1 | 18.6 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 8.7 | 16.4 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 9.7 | 14.3 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 3.6 | 5.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 15.8 | 17.4 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 3.3 | 13.9 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 6.9 | 14.6 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 12.6 | 19.5 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | River CracraftWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.4 | 2.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 13.3 | 14.1 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 13.7 | 21.4 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 0.7 | 2.1 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.8 | 1.8 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 5.6 | 12.1 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 0.9 | 13.9 | +13.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 4.7 | 7.0 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 15.0 | 23.9 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 8.7 | 11.7 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 3.8 | 5.4 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.5 | 4.5 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 8.7 | 10.5 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 3.0 | 7.7 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs KC) | 14.0 | 21.8 | +7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs IND) | 5.3 | 6.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DEN) | 0.9 | 3.3 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 8.9 | 19.6 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 10.5 | 19.2 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 14.1 | 19.1 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 3.5 | 5.9 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV) | 2.1 | 4.8 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 16.3 | 18.6 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 7.1 | 8.7 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET) | 11.5 | 16.3 | +4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 17.7 | 20.5 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 6.6 | 12.2 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 5.7 | 24.8 | +19.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 2.4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB) | 9.3 | 22.9 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN) | 10.6 | 27.1 | +16.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI) | 3.1 | 12.2 | +9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 9.3 | 14.5 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs ARI) | 3.4 | 10.5 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 4.6 | 11.1 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL) | 8.4 | 11.5 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs ARI) | 11.2 | 13.2 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.9 | 6.0 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.4 | 2.8 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse