Colorado Avalanche vs. Toronto Maple LeafsDec 4, 2019

FinalWednesday, Dec 4, 2019· Scotiabank Arena

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Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
COL	0	1	2	3		COL	10	13	7	30
TOR	0	1	0	1		TOR	12	11	16	39

: COL 59TOR 60
: COL 3.82TOR 2.67
PP goals: COL 1TOR 0
Hits: COL 24TOR 17
Blocks: COL 11TOR 19
PIM: COL 2TOR 6
: COL 35%TOR 65%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Colorado Avalanche beat Toronto Maple Leafs 3–1

Colorado Avalanche beat Toronto Maple Leafs 3–1 at TOR. Nathan MacKinnon (COL) led the scoring with 1G 1A. COL's first power-play unit (Kadri, Donskoi, MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar) scored 1 power-play goal on 2 attempts in 3:15 together.

Points
Nathan MacKinnon had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 2 shots in 20:52.MacKinnon
PP1
COL's first power-play unit (Kadri, Donskoi, MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar) scored 1 power-play goal on 2 attempts in 3:15 together.Kadri Donskoi MacKinnon Rantanen Makar
New line
New look for TOR: Tavares–Marner–Mikheyev skated 9:53 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (57.9% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Tavares Marner Mikheyev
New line
New look for COL: Calvert–Nichushkin–Bellemare skated 12:22 together at 5v5 as the L2 trio (66.7% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Calvert Nichushkin Bellemare
Goalie
Philipp Grubauer (COL) faced 39 shots and stopped 38 (.974), +9 against a season average of 29.6; the win.Grubauer
New line
New look for COL: Tynan–Jost–O'Connor skated 6:00 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (25% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Tynan Jost O'Connor
New line
New look for TOR: Spezza–Engvall–Timashov skated 4:30 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (27.3% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Spezza Engvall Timashov
Luck
TOR scored 1 goal on 2.67 expected goals (60 attempts), well short of its chances.

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← COL attacks left (bottom on phones)TOR attacks right (top on phones) →

TOR
COL
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 119 of 119 attempts · TOR 60 · COL 59

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

TOR
COL
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

TOR pressure
COL pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: COL 36% of the game, TOR 35%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

TOR

COL

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	COL	TOR
	60	61
	2.92	2.37
	2.48	2.33
	13	12
	8	6
	25	18
	−0.106	+0.106
	36%	35%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Colorado Avalanche

L1Donskoi – MacKinnon – Rantanen
13:1047% CF
L2Calvert – Nichushkin – Bellemare
12:2267% CF
L3Kadri – Nieto – Compher
10:0235% CF
L4Tynan – Jost – O'Connor
6:0025% CF
D1Zadorov – Girard
14:5255% CF
D2Graves – Makar
14:0938% CF
D3Cole – Rosen
10:3648% CF

PP1Kadri – Donskoi – MacKinnon – Rantanen – Makar
3:1550% CF
PP2Tynan – Compher – Nichushkin – Jost – Girard
1:10100% CF
PK1FNieto – Nichushkin
1:13
PK2FCalvert – Bellemare
0:43
PK1DCole – Graves
1:56

Current COL line combinations →

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Tavares – Marner – Mikheyev
9:5358% CF
L2Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews
9:3933% CF
L3Hyman – Kerfoot – Kapanen
8:0152% CF
L4Spezza – Engvall – Timashov
4:3027% CF
D1Barrie – Rielly
18:4741% CF
D2Muzzin – Holl
14:0857% CF
D3Ceci – Dermott
11:2057% CF

PP1Tavares – Barrie – Nylander – Marner – Matthews
1:08100% CF
PP2Spezza – Hyman – Rielly – Kerfoot – Kapanen
0:4850% CF
PK1FHyman – Engvall
1:23
PK2FKapanen – Marner
1:15
PK1DHoll – Rielly
1:56
PK2DCeci – Dermott
1:16

Current TOR line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

2nd period

10:52
COLNathan MacKinnonPP (Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar)wrist0.06 xG
COL: Kadri, Donskoi, MacKinnon, Rantanen, MakarTOR: Muzzin, Hyman, Ceci, Mikheyev
COL 1 – 0 TOR
12:42
TORZach Hyman (Alexander Kerfoot, Cody Ceci)deflected0.13 xG
COL: Kadri, Nieto, Graves, Compher, MakarTOR: Hyman, Ceci, Kerfoot, Kapanen, Dermott
COL 1 – 1 TOR

3rd period

6:40
COLValeri NichushkinSHwrist0.16 xG
COL: Cole, Nieto, Graves, NichushkinTOR: Spezza, Hyman, Rielly, Kerfoot, Kapanen
COL 2 – 1 TOR
18:41
COLJoonas DonskoiEN (Matt Calvert, Nathan MacKinnon)wrist0.83 xG
COL: Calvert, Donskoi, Graves, MacKinnon, ZadorovTOR: Tavares, Barrie, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews
COL 3 – 1 TOR

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Colorado Avalanche

COL skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Nathan MacKinnon C	L1	1	1	2	+1	2	0.08	1	0	0	20:52	—	—	52	69
Joonas Donskoi R	L1	1	0	1	+1	4	1.17	2	1	0	19:19	—	—	48	36
Mikko Rantanen R	L1	0	1	1	0	1	0.05	1	1	0	18:49	—	—	46	37
Valeri Nichushkin R	L2	1	0	1	+1	5	0.65	1	0	0	17:36	—	—	69	72
Matt Calvert L	L2	0	1	1	+1	2	0.26	3	1	0	15:17	—	—	67	67
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L	L2	0	0	0	0	3	0.21	0	0	0	15:01	—	—	67	67
Nazem Kadri C	L3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.04	2	0	0	17:27	—	—	36	38
J.T. Compher L	L3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.04	0	0	2	17:06	—	—	33	39
Matt Nieto L	L3	0	0	0	0	0	0.14	1	1	0	15:50	—	—	30	28
Tyson Jost C	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.10	0	0	0	9:45	—	—	35	29
T.J. Tynan C	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	7:44	—	—	40	61
Logan O'Connor R	L4	0	0	0	0	2	0.48	0	2	0	7:30	—	—	40	61
Samuel Girard D	D1	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	1	1	0	22:00	—	—	55	61
Nikita Zadorov D	D1	0	0	0	+1	1	0.05	6	1	0	21:45	—	—	58	52
Cale Makar D	D2	0	1	1	-1	4	0.12	0	0	0	23:39	—	—	38	26
Ryan Graves D	D2	0	0	0	+1	2	0.18	3	1	0	20:01	—	—	50	56
Ian Cole D	D3	0	0	0	+1	0	0.12	2	2	0	16:29	—	—	44	63
Calle Rosen D	D3	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	0	0	0	11:50	—	—	48	62

COL goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Philipp Grubauer(start)	W	39	38	1	.974	2.67	60:00

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mitch Marner R	L1	0	0	0	-1	1	0.24	1	2	0	22:53	—	—	62	57
John Tavares C	L1	0	0	0	-1	8	0.60	0	0	0	20:43	—	—	53	48
Ilya Mikheyev R	L1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	15:51	—	—	63	49
Auston Matthews C	L2	0	0	0	-1	5	0.36	0	2	0	21:45	—	—	50	42
William Nylander R	L2	0	0	0	-1	2	0.18	0	2	0	18:09	—	—	51	43
Andreas Johnsson L	L2	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	12:00	—	—	32	25
Zach Hyman L	L3	1	0	1	0	6	0.70	2	0	0	17:18	—	—	56	54
Kasperi Kapanen R	L3	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	4	0	0	16:16	—	—	56	47
Alexander Kerfoot C	L3	0	1	1	0	0	0.08	1	1	0	13:37	—	—	55	47
Jason Spezza C	L4	0	0	0	-1	1	0.07	0	1	0	8:27	—	—	33	17
Pierre Engvall L	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	0	0	7:11	—	—	27	17
Dmytro Timashov L	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	2	5:12	—	—	27	17
Morgan Rielly D	D1	0	0	0	-2	6	0.15	2	1	0	25:35	—	—	45	33
Tyson Barrie D	D1	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	2	4	0	22:09	—	—	41	32
Jake Muzzin D	D2	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	2	4	18:46	—	—	63	73
Justin Holl D	D2	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	0	0	0	18:10	—	—	50	61
Cody Ceci D	D3	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	2	2	0	17:31	—	—	54	50
Travis Dermott D	D3	0	0	0	+1	3	0.05	1	1	0	16:00	—	—	62	54

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Frederik Andersen(start)	L	29	27	2	.931	2.99	57:50

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.