Colorado Avalanche vs. Toronto Maple LeafsMar 15, 2023

Final / SOWednesday, Mar 15, 2023· Scotiabank Arena

away

home

Goals	1	2	3	OT	SO	T		Shots	1	2	3	OT	T
COL	1	0	0	0	1	2		COL	9	10	6	4	29
TOR	1	0	0	0	0	1		TOR	7	4	7	0	18

: COL 66TOR 39
: COL 3.28TOR 1.82
PP goals: COL 1TOR 0
Hits: COL 22TOR 21
Blocks: COL 12TOR 22
PIM: COL 6TOR 8
: COL 46%TOR 54%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Colorado Avalanche edge Toronto Maple Leafs 2–1 (SO)

Colorado Avalanche beat Toronto Maple Leafs 2–1 in a shootout at TOR. Mikko Rantanen (COL) led the scoring with 1G 0A. COL's first power-play unit (Compher, MacKinnon, Nichushkin, Rantanen and Makar) scored 1 power-play goal on 7 attempts in 6:42 together.

PP1
COL's first power-play unit (Compher, MacKinnon, Nichushkin, Rantanen and Makar) scored 1 power-play goal on 7 attempts in 6:42 together.Compher MacKinnon Nichushkin Rantanen Makar
New line
New look for TOR: Jarnkrok–Marner–Matthews skated 11:19 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (41.7% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Jarnkrok Marner Matthews
Usage
Mitch Marner (TOR) played 29:10, +7:59 up on his 21:11 season average over 79 games.Marner
Luck
COL scored 1 goal on 3.28 expected goals (66 attempts), well short of its chances.
New line
New look for COL: Compher–Nichushkin–Malgin skated 8:41 together at 5v5 as the L3 trio (81.8% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Compher Nichushkin Malgin
Usage
Cale Makar (COL) played 30:34, +4:15 up on his 26:19 season average over 59 games.Makar
Usage
Auston Matthews (TOR) played 26:52, +6:41 up on his 20:11 season average over 73 games.Matthews
Usage
Calle Jarnkrok (TOR) played 18:28, +4:08 up on his 14:20 season average over 72 games.Jarnkrok

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← COL attacks left (bottom on phones)TOR attacks right (top on phones) →

TOR
COL
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 105 of 105 attempts · TOR 39 · COL 66

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

TOR
COL
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

TOR pressure
COL pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: COL 46% of the game, TOR 10%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

TOR

COL

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	COL	TOR
	56	35
	2.43	1.25
	2.37	1.23
	10	4
	1	2
	18	16
	−0.052	+0.052
	46%	10%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Colorado Avalanche

L1Cogliano – Eller – O'Connor
10:3562% CF
L2MacKinnon – Rantanen – Rodrigues
10:0852% CF
L3Compher – Nichushkin – Malgin
8:4182% CF
L4Nieto – Galchenyuk – Newhook
2:4360% CF
D1Toews – Makar
11:4770% CF
D2Girard – Byram
9:2865% CF
D3Johnson – Hunt
2:5333% CF

PP1Compher – MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen – Makar
6:42100% CF
PP2Toews – Rodrigues – Girard – Byram – Newhook
1:58100% CF
PK1FCogliano – O'Connor
1:56
PK2FCompher – Nichushkin
1:33
PK1DToews – Makar
2:06
PK2DJohnson – Girard
1:28

Current COL line combinations →

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Jarnkrok – Marner – Matthews
11:1942% CF
L2Tavares – Nylander – Bunting
8:3717% CF
L3Acciari – Aston-Reese – Kampf
5:010% CF
D1Holl – McCabe
11:0336% CF
D2Brodie – Rielly
8:4838% CF
D3Giordano – Liljegren
5:4225% CF

PP1Tavares – Rielly – Nylander – Marner – Matthews
4:1786% CF
PP2Jarnkrok – Gustafsson – Kerfoot – Lafferty – Bunting
0:40100% CF
PK1FMarner – Kampf
2:33
PK2FJarnkrok – Acciari
1:51
PK1DBrodie – Holl
4:07
PK2DGiordano – McCabe
1:53

Current TOR line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

3:41
TORMorgan Rielly (Mitch Marner, Calle Jarnkrok)wrist0.01 xG
COL: MacKinnon, Rantanen, Rodrigues, Girard, ByramTOR: Brodie, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Marner, Matthews
COL 0 – 1 TOR
14:08
COLMikko RantanenPP (Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon)wrist0.10 xG
COL: Compher, MacKinnon, Nichushkin, Rantanen, MakarTOR: McCabe, Kerfoot, Lafferty, Liljegren
COL 1 – 1 TOR

Decided in the shootout: COL 2 – 1 TOR.

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Colorado Avalanche

COL skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Lars Eller C	L1	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	1	0	0	15:46	—	—	75	82
Logan O'Connor R	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	0	1	0	15:04	—	—	59	72
Andrew Cogliano C	L1	0	0	0	0	2	0.31	2	0	0	14:49	—	—	60	68
Mikko Rantanen R	L2	1	0	1	-1	5	0.45	2	1	0	25:02	—	—	59	53
Nathan MacKinnon C	L2	0	1	1	-1	2	0.19	4	0	0	24:52	—	—	56	51
Evan Rodrigues C	L2	0	0	0	-1	2	0.42	1	1	4	15:48	—	—	55	53
J.T. Compher L	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.13	1	0	0	23:43	—	—	55	63
Valeri Nichushkin R	L3	0	0	0	0	4	0.61	0	1	0	22:12	—	—	65	79
Denis Malgin C	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.19	1	0	0	11:28	—	—	75	82
Alex Newhook C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.17	0	1	2	8:45	—	—	70	100
Matt Nieto L	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	8:14	—	—	67	76
Alex Galchenyuk C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	2	0	0	3:22	—	—	71	100
Cale Makar D	D1	0	1	1	0	4	0.35	1	0	0	30:34	—	—	64	51
Devon Toews D	D1	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	3	4	0	26:37	—	—	65	57
Samuel Girard D	D2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	1	1	0	21:08	—	—	59	78
Bowen Byram D	D2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.12	1	1	0	20:46	—	—	61	72
Jack Johnson D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	14:16	—	—	50	64
Brad Hunt D	D3	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	0	0	0	6:34	—	—	78	86

COL goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Alexandar Georgiev(start)	W	18	17	1	.944	1.82	65:00

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mitch Marner R	L1	0	1	1	+1	1	0.05	0	4	0	29:10	—	—	50	45
Auston Matthews C	L1	0	0	0	+1	5	0.69	2	1	0	26:52	—	—	47	46
Calle Jarnkrok C	L1	0	1	1	+1	1	0.14	4	1	0	18:28	—	—	40	44
William Nylander R	L2	0	0	0	0	3	0.23	0	0	0	21:12	—	—	38	27
John Tavares C	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.20	2	2	0	19:57	—	—	33	34
Michael Bunting L	L2	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	2	15:04	—	—	27	30
David Kampf C	L3	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	1	0	2	13:58	—	—	25	9
Noel Acciari C	L3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	13:12	—	—	21	8
Zachary Aston-Reese L	L3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	7:04	—	—	27	19
Jake McCabe D	D1	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	2	4	0	18:14	—	—	32	45
Justin Holl D	D1	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	0	0	16:54	—	—	44	59
Morgan Rielly D	D2	1	0	1	+1	3	0.18	1	2	0	20:43	—	—	38	31
TJ Brodie D	D2	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	0	3	2	19:27	—	—	40	21
Timothy Liljegren D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	14:13	—	—	40	38
Mark Giordano D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	1	2	14:01	—	—	37	17
Erik Gustafsson D	—	0	0	0	0	0	0.16	0	1	0	16:13	—	—	38	23
Alexander Kerfoot C	—	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	11:36	—	—	57	29
Sam Lafferty C	—	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	1	0	10:04	—	—	31	17

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Ilya Samsonov(start)	O	29	28	1	.966	3.28	64:19

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.