Colorado Avalanche vs. Buffalo SabresFeb 4, 2020

FinalTuesday, Feb 4, 2020· KeyBank Center

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Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
COL	2	4	0	6		COL	8	10	9	27
BUF	1	0	0	1		BUF	8	8	8	24

: COL 53BUF 48
: COL 1.88BUF 2.10
PP goals: COL 0BUF 0
Hits: COL 12BUF 16
Blocks: COL 13BUF 13
PIM: COL 4BUF 0
: COL 57%BUF 43%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Colorado Avalanche rout Buffalo Sabres 6–1

Colorado Avalanche beat Buffalo Sabres 6–1 at BUF. Andre Burakovsky (COL) led the scoring with 1G 3A. COL scored 6 goals on 1.88 expected goals (53 attempts), finishing well above its chances.

Points
Andre Burakovsky had a goal and 3 assists (4 points) on 1 shot in 15:16.Burakovsky
Points
Valeri Nichushkin had a goal and 2 assists (3 points) on 3 shots in 14:47.Nichushkin
Points
Nazem Kadri had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 4 shots in 15:19.Kadri
Points
Nikita Zadorov had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 2 shots in 19:13.Zadorov
Luck
COL scored 6 goals on 1.88 expected goals (53 attempts), finishing well above its chances.
New line
New look for BUF: Skinner–Girgensons–Rodrigues skated 10:03 together at 5v5 as the L3 trio (23.5% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Skinner Girgensons Rodrigues
Usage
Conor Sheary (BUF) played 20:09, +7:09 up on his 13:00 season average over 62 games.Sheary
Usage
Joonas Donskoi (COL) played 12:17, −4:01 down on his 16:18 season average over 64 games.Donskoi

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← COL attacks left (bottom on phones)BUF attacks right (top on phones) →

BUF
COL
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 101 of 101 attempts · BUF 48 · COL 53

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

BUF
COL
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

BUF pressure
COL pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: COL 28% of the game, BUF 25%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

BUF

COL

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	COL	BUF
	64	50
	2.26	2.05
	2.23	1.90
	10	11
	7	8
	14	13
	+0.031	−0.031
	28%	25%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Colorado Avalanche

L1Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen
13:5759% CF
L2Kadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin
11:2161% CF
L3Donskoi – Nieto – Jost
9:4062% CF
L4Calvert – Compher – Bellemare
8:1550% CF
D1Johnson – Girard
16:1355% CF
D2Graves – Makar
16:0850% CF
D3Cole – Zadorov
14:5763% CF

PP1Cole – Landeskog – MacKinnon – Zadorov – Rantanen
0:21
PP2Cole – Donskoi – Nieto – Zadorov – Jost
0:15
PK1FCalvert – Bellemare
2:18
PK2FNieto – Compher
1:36
PK1DJohnson – Cole
1:15
PK2DZadorov – Girard
0:39

Current COL line combinations →

Buffalo Sabres

L1Vesey – Reinhart – Eichel
15:5163% CF
L2Frolik – Johansson – Sheary
13:3348% CF
L3Skinner – Girgensons – Rodrigues
10:0324% CF
D1Bogosian – McCabe
9:1947% CF
D2Montour – Jokiharju
7:3740% CF
D3Ristolainen – Pilut
6:5643% CF

PP1Johansson – Skinner – Ristolainen – Reinhart – Eichel
2:34100% CF
PP2Vesey – Sheary – Montour – Rodrigues – Pilut
0:59

Current BUF line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

13:12
COLSamuel Girard (Ryan Graves, Joonas Donskoi)wrist0.07 xG
COL: Donskoi, Nieto, Graves, Jost, GirardBUF: Skinner, Girgensons, Ristolainen, Rodrigues, Pilut
COL 1 – 0 BUF
13:57
COLAndre Burakovsky (Nazem Kadri, Nikita Zadorov)wrist0.09 xG
COL: Kadri, Graves, Burakovsky, Nichushkin, MakarBUF: Bogosian, Vesey, McCabe, Reinhart, Eichel
COL 2 – 0 BUF
19:59
BUFSam Reinhart (Jake McCabe, Jack Eichel)tip-in0.05 xG
COL: Johnson, Kadri, Burakovsky, MacKinnon, GirardBUF: Bogosian, Vesey, McCabe, Reinhart, Eichel
COL 2 – 1 BUF

2nd period

1:00
COLNazem Kadri (Valeri Nichushkin, Andre Burakovsky)wrist0.02 xG
COL: Johnson, Kadri, Burakovsky, Nichushkin, GirardBUF: Frolik, Bogosian, Johansson, McCabe, Sheary
COL 3 – 1 BUF
4:23
COLNikita Zadorov (Andre Burakovsky, Valeri Nichushkin)backhand0.14 xG
COL: Cole, Kadri, Burakovsky, Nichushkin, ZadorovBUF: Bogosian, Skinner, Miller, Girgensons, Rodrigues
COL 4 – 1 BUF
10:58
COLValeri Nichushkin (Andre Burakovsky, Cale Makar)wrist0.05 xG
COL: Kadri, Graves, Burakovsky, Nichushkin, MakarBUF: Bogosian, Skinner, Miller, Girgensons, Rodrigues
COL 5 – 1 BUF
12:59
COLMikko Rantanen (Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog)snap0.10 xG
COL: Landeskog, Graves, MacKinnon, Rantanen, MakarBUF: Frolik, Johansson, Ristolainen, Sheary, Pilut
COL 6 – 1 BUF

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Colorado Avalanche

COL skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Nathan MacKinnon C	L1	0	1	1	0	4	0.17	2	0	0	19:36	—	—	51	50
Mikko Rantanen R	L1	1	0	1	+1	1	0.18	0	0	0	16:44	—	—	59	51
Gabriel Landeskog L	L1	0	1	1	+1	2	0.24	2	1	0	16:35	—	—	56	54
Nazem Kadri C	L2	1	1	2	+3	4	0.33	0	0	2	15:19	—	—	56	72
Andre Burakovsky L	L2	1	3	4	+3	1	0.12	0	1	0	15:16	—	—	50	59
Valeri Nichushkin R	L2	1	2	3	+4	3	0.14	1	0	0	14:47	—	—	60	68
Tyson Jost C	L3	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	1	0	0	13:23	—	—	58	20
Matt Nieto L	L3	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	0	0	0	12:52	—	—	62	24
Joonas Donskoi R	L3	0	1	1	+1	2	0.07	1	0	0	12:17	—	—	65	27
Matt Calvert L	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	0	0	13:32	—	—	56	58
J.T. Compher L	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	0	0	13:23	—	—	50	58
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	0	11:56	—	—	54	48
Erik Johnson D	D1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	21:25	—	—	54	29
Samuel Girard D	D1	1	0	1	+1	1	0.07	0	3	0	20:03	—	—	56	59
Ryan Graves D	D2	0	1	1	+4	1	0.00	2	4	2	20:43	—	—	51	47
Cale Makar D	D2	0	1	1	+3	1	0.07	0	0	0	19:07	—	—	51	63
Ian Cole D	D3	0	0	0	+1	2	0.20	1	1	0	19:49	—	—	64	61
Nikita Zadorov D	D3	1	1	2	+1	2	0.24	0	0	0	19:13	—	—	63	59

COL goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Philipp Grubauer(start)	W	24	23	1	.958	2.10	60:00

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk		PP	SH
Jack Eichel C	L1	0	1	1	0	4	0.29	0	0	20:47	—	—	60	60
Sam Reinhart C	L1	1	0	1	0	5	0.68	0	1	20:20	—	—	61	63
Jimmy Vesey L	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	2	0	19:42	—	—	60	63
Conor Sheary L	L2	0	0	0	-2	2	0.03	0	0	20:09	—	—	46	57
Marcus Johansson L	L2	0	0	0	-2	2	0.03	0	0	19:17	—	—	41	45
Michael Frolik R	L2	0	0	0	-2	0	0.06	2	1	17:18	—	—	45	44
Jeff Skinner L	L3	0	0	0	-3	3	0.29	0	1	17:33	—	—	17	25
Evan Rodrigues C	L3	0	0	0	-3	0	0.00	0	1	14:24	—	—	20	30
Zemgus Girgensons C	L3	0	0	0	-3	1	0.09	1	0	13:49	—	—	27	35
Jake McCabe D	D1	0	1	1	-1	0	0.00	1	2	17:49	—	—	36	24
Zach Bogosian D	D1	0	0	0	-3	2	0.17	2	1	17:09	—	—	49	38
Brandon Montour D	D2	0	0	0	0	0	0.14	1	2	17:12	—	—	48	84
Henri Jokiharju D	D2	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	0	1	15:34	—	—	46	51
Rasmus Ristolainen D	D3	0	0	0	-2	1	0.01	0	2	18:25	—	—	37	42
Lawrence Pilut D	D3	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	2	1	14:38	—	—	48	45
Colin Miller D	—	0	0	0	-2	0	0.02	3	0	15:23	—	—	46	43
Jean-Sebastien Dea C	—	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	10:07	—	—	33	32
Rasmus Asplund C	—	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	1	0	9:35	—	—	46	45

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Carter Hutton(start)	L	13	8	5	.615	1.10	30:26
Jonas Johansson	—	14	13	1	.929	0.78	29:34

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.