Carolina Hurricanes vs. Toronto Maple LeafsMar 17, 2023

FinalFriday, Mar 17, 2023· Scotiabank Arena

away

Carolina HurricanesCAR

2

@

home

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

5

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
CAR	1	1	0	2		CAR	11	10	13	34
TOR	3	1	1	5		TOR	11	5	8	24

: CAR 79TOR 40
: CAR 2.77TOR 2.29
PP goals: CAR 0TOR 1
Hits: CAR 20TOR 26
Blocks: CAR 9TOR 22
PIM: CAR 2TOR 6
: CAR 44%TOR 56%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Carolina Hurricanes 5–2

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Carolina Hurricanes 5–2 at home. Zachary Aston-Reese (TOR) led the scoring with 2G 0A. TOR scored 5 goals on 2.29 expected goals (40 attempts), finishing well above its chances.

Points
Zachary Aston-Reese had two goals (2 points) on 3 shots in 13:38.Aston-Reese
Points
Morgan Rielly had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 4 shots in 17:14.Rielly
Points
Calle Jarnkrok had 2 assists (2 points) in 16:46.Jarnkrok
Points
John Tavares had 2 assists (2 points) in 16:25.Tavares
Luck
TOR scored 5 goals on 2.29 expected goals (40 attempts), finishing well above its chances.
Usage
Noel Acciari (TOR) played 5:39, −8:47 down on his 14:26 season average over 76 games.Acciari
New line
New look for TOR: Lafferty–Aston-Reese–Kampf skated 6:39 together at 5v5 as the L3 trio (42.9% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Lafferty Aston-Reese Kampf
Usage
Erik Gustafsson (TOR) played 15:13, −4:37 down on his 19:50 season average over 69 games.Gustafsson

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← CAR attacks left (bottom on phones)TOR attacks right (top on phones) →

TOR
CAR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 119 of 119 attempts · TOR 40 · CAR 79

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

TOR
CAR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

TOR pressure
CAR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: CAR 43% of the game, TOR 21%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

TOR

CAR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	CAR	TOR
	86	43
	3.06	2.38
	2.95	2.31
	17	12
	6	5
	23	14
	−0.035	+0.035
	43%	21%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Carolina Hurricanes

L1Teravainen – Necas – Kotkaniemi
11:4965% CF
L2Staal – Fast – Martinook
11:3653% CF
L3Aho – Puljujarvi – Jarvis
11:1667% CF
L4Stepan – Noesen – Drury
8:3261% CF
D1Burns – Slavin
18:4872% CF
D2Skjei – Pesce
17:0158% CF
D3Gostisbehere – Chatfield
13:0073% CF

PP1Burns – Noesen – Teravainen – Aho – Necas
3:5280% CF
PP2Gostisbehere – Puljujarvi – Kotkaniemi – Drury – Jarvis
1:43100% CF
PK1FStepan – Martinook
0:41
PK1DSkjei – Pesce
0:41

Current CAR line combinations →

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Jarnkrok – Marner – Matthews
9:1555% CF
L2Tavares – Nylander – Bunting
7:2022% CF
L3Lafferty – Aston-Reese – Kampf
6:3943% CF
D1Brodie – Rielly
9:1545% CF
D2McCabe – Liljegren
6:0550% CF
D3Giordano – Gustafsson
6:0431% CF

PP1Tavares – Rielly – Nylander – Marner – Matthews
0:41100% CF
PK1FMarner – Kampf
2:02
PK2FKerfoot – Lafferty
1:35
PK1DGiordano – Brodie
2:49
PK2DMcCabe – Liljegren
2:02

Current TOR line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

2:54
TORZachary Aston-Reese (Erik Gustafsson, Calle Jarnkrok)tip-in0.07 xG
CAR: Stepan, Noesen, Gostisbehere, Chatfield, DruryTOR: Jarnkrok, McCabe, Gustafsson, Aston-Reese, Kampf
CAR 0 – 1 TOR
12:30
TORMitch Marner (Michael Bunting, John Tavares)wrist0.07 xG
CAR: Skjei, Teravainen, Pesce, Necas, KotkaniemiTOR: McCabe, Bunting, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren
CAR 0 – 2 TOR
14:37
CARBrady Skjei (Jordan Martinook, Brett Pesce)wrist0.03 xG
CAR: Staal, Fast, Skjei, Martinook, PesceTOR: Schenn, Rielly, Kerfoot, Lafferty, Acciari
CAR 1 – 2 TOR
17:38
TORAuston MatthewsPP (John Tavares, Morgan Rielly)deflected0.10 xG
CAR: Stepan, Skjei, Martinook, PesceTOR: Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews
CAR 1 – 3 TOR

2nd period

10:45
CARMartin Necas (Teuvo Teravainen, Jesperi Kotkaniemi)wrist0.04 xG
CAR: Burns, Teravainen, Slavin, Necas, KotkaniemiTOR: Giordano, Brodie, Tavares, Kerfoot, Nylander
CAR 2 – 3 TOR
14:59
TORZachary Aston-Reese (Sam Lafferty)wrist0.06 xG
CAR: Skjei, Teravainen, Pesce, Necas, KotkaniemiTOR: Giordano, Gustafsson, Lafferty, Aston-Reese, Kampf
CAR 2 – 4 TOR

3rd period

8:56
TORMorgan Rielly (Calle Jarnkrok, TJ Brodie)wrist0.10 xG
CAR: Skjei, Teravainen, Pesce, Necas, KotkaniemiTOR: Brodie, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews
CAR 2 – 5 TOR

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Carolina Hurricanes

CAR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Martin Necas C	L1	1	0	1	-2	2	0.41	1	0	0	17:38	—	—	70	71
Teuvo Teravainen C	L1	0	1	1	-2	2	0.06	0	1	0	17:34	—	—	65	62
Jesperi Kotkaniemi C	L1	0	1	1	-2	2	0.15	3	0	0	17:15	—	—	73	69
Jordan Martinook L	L2	0	1	1	+1	3	0.15	1	0	0	14:52	—	—	65	55
Jordan Staal C	L2	0	0	0	+1	2	0.13	2	0	2	13:28	—	—	56	36
Jesper Fast R	L2	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	1	0	13:18	—	—	53	32
Seth Jarvis R	L3	0	0	0	0	4	0.40	0	0	0	17:51	—	—	74	60
Jesse Puljujarvi R	L3	0	0	0	0	4	0.23	4	0	0	17:46	—	—	68	54
Sebastian Aho C	L3	0	0	0	0	4	0.42	2	0	0	17:43	—	—	66	54
Stefan Noesen R	L4	0	0	0	-1	2	0.20	1	0	0	14:12	—	—	65	53
Jack Drury C	L4	0	0	0	-1	4	0.26	0	1	0	13:22	—	—	68	57
Derek Stepan C	L4	0	0	0	-1	2	0.08	2	1	0	10:36	—	—	68	51
Brent Burns D	D1	0	0	0	+1	1	0.08	2	0	0	24:28	—	—	68	65
Jaccob Slavin D	D1	0	0	0	+1	0	0.11	1	0	0	20:12	—	—	74	72
Brett Pesce D	D2	0	1	1	-2	0	0.00	1	3	0	19:50	—	—	57	38
Brady Skjei D	D2	1	0	1	-2	1	0.04	0	1	0	18:29	—	—	56	41
Shayne Gostisbehere D	D3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	0	0	0	16:00	—	—	73	55
Jalen Chatfield D	D3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.03	0	1	0	14:45	—	—	69	45

CAR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Pyotr Kochetkov(start)	L	24	19	5	.792	2.29	60:00

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mitch Marner R	L1	1	0	1	+1	1	0.07	0	0	0	20:43	—	—	30	44
Auston Matthews C	L1	1	0	1	+2	5	0.78	0	1	0	18:57	—	—	57	78
Calle Jarnkrok C	L1	0	2	2	+2	0	0.01	0	1	2	16:46	—	—	50	76
William Nylander R	L2	0	0	0	0	2	0.33	0	3	0	17:32	—	—	31	41
John Tavares C	L2	0	2	2	-1	0	0.07	2	2	0	16:25	—	—	17	12
Michael Bunting L	L2	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	1	2	2	16:08	—	—	27	31
Sam Lafferty C	L3	0	1	1	0	2	0.07	2	1	0	17:52	—	—	36	46
David Kampf C	L3	0	0	0	+2	3	0.35	1	0	0	17:35	—	—	32	37
Zachary Aston-Reese L	L3	2	0	2	+2	3	0.21	4	1	2	13:38	—	—	46	55
TJ Brodie D	D1	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	1	3	0	21:04	—	—	37	62
Morgan Rielly D	D1	1	1	2	0	4	0.14	3	1	0	17:14	—	—	35	48
Jake McCabe D	D2	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	2	0	0	19:13	—	—	30	31
Timothy Liljegren D	D2	0	0	0	+1	2	0.04	4	0	0	16:14	—	—	46	41
Mark Giordano D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	0	16:34	—	—	33	49
Erik Gustafsson D	D3	0	1	1	+2	0	0.02	0	2	0	15:13	—	—	38	48
Luke Schenn D	—	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	4	0	0	13:56	—	—	17	32
Alexander Kerfoot C	—	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	3	0	13:14	—	—	22	23
Noel Acciari C	—	0	0	0	-1	1	0.20	2	0	0	5:39	—	—	40	54

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Ilya Samsonov(start)	W	34	32	2	.941	2.77	60:00

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.