Carolina Hurricanes vs. Toronto Maple LeafsMar 16, 2024

Final / SOSaturday, Mar 16, 2024· Scotiabank Arena

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Goals	1	2	3	OT	SO	T		Shots	1	2	3	OT	T
CAR	0	2	2	0	1	5		CAR	9	16	13	2	40
TOR	0	3	1	0	0	4		TOR	9	14	11	6	40

: CAR 75TOR 73
: CAR 3.88TOR 6.00
PP goals: CAR 1TOR 0
Hits: CAR 25TOR 37
Blocks: CAR 15TOR 16
PIM: CAR 8TOR 10
: CAR 48%TOR 52%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Carolina Hurricanes edge Toronto Maple Leafs 5–4 (SO)

Carolina Hurricanes beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5–4 in a shootout at TOR. Sebastian Aho (CAR) led the scoring with 2G 1A. CAR's first power-play unit (Burns, Guentzel, Aho, Svechnikov and Jarvis) scored 1 power-play goal on 6 attempts in 4:02 together.

Points
Sebastian Aho had two goals and an assist (3 points) on 4 shots in 25:15.Aho
Points
John Tavares had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 3 shots in 17:18.Tavares
Points
Brent Burns had 2 assists (2 points) on 1 shot in 24:57.Burns
Points
Jake Guentzel had 2 assists (2 points) on 5 shots in 20:22.Guentzel
Points
Morgan Rielly had 2 assists (2 points) on 2 shots in 23:26.Rielly
PP1
CAR's first power-play unit (Burns, Guentzel, Aho, Svechnikov and Jarvis) scored 1 power-play goal on 6 attempts in 4:02 together.Burns Guentzel Aho Svechnikov Jarvis
New line
New look for CAR: Guentzel–Aho–Jarvis skated 5:53 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (55.6% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Guentzel Aho Jarvis
New line
New look for TOR: Tavares–Robertson–Knies skated 8:52 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (30.8% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Tavares Robertson Knies

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← CAR attacks left (bottom on phones)TOR attacks right (top on phones) →

TOR
CAR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 148 of 148 attempts · TOR 73 · CAR 75

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

TOR
CAR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

TOR pressure
CAR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: CAR 25% of the game, TOR 37%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

TOR

CAR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	CAR	TOR
	64	43
	2.95	2.23
	2.77	2.08
	18	10
	1	5
	26	10
	−0.020	+0.020
	25%	37%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Carolina Hurricanes

L1Guentzel – Aho – Jarvis
5:5356% CF
L2Kuznetsov – Necas – Svechnikov
4:41100% CF
L3Noesen – Lemieux – Kotkaniemi
4:2244% CF
L4Staal – Fast – Martinook
4:1879% CF
D1Burns – Slavin
13:5459% CF
D2Skjei – Pesce
13:1642% CF
D3Orlov – Chatfield
11:5065% CF

PP1Burns – Guentzel – Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis
4:02100% CF
PP2Kuznetsov – Noesen – Skjei – Necas – Kotkaniemi
1:4375% CF
PK1FStaal – Jarvis
1:57
PK2FFast – Aho
0:42
PK1DSkjei – Pesce
2:31
PK2DBurns – Slavin
2:08

Current CAR line combinations →

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Tavares – Robertson – Knies
8:5231% CF
L2Bertuzzi – Matthews – Holmberg
8:5135% CF
L3Gregor – Kampf – Dewar
8:3538% CF
L4Domi – Nylander – McMann
8:2248% CF
D1Edmundson – Liljegren
13:0441% CF
D2Rielly – Lyubushkin
12:3744% CF
D3Brodie – McCabe
12:3215% CF

PP1Tavares – Rielly – Nylander – Matthews – Liljegren
3:20100% CF
PP2McCabe – Bertuzzi – Domi – Robertson – Knies
1:35100% CF
PK1FKampf – Dewar
2:51
PK2FNylander – McMann
1:01
PK1DBrodie – McCabe
3:14
PK2DEdmundson – Lyubushkin
1:27

Current TOR line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

2nd period

4:47
TORJohn Tavares (TJ Brodie)wrist0.16 xG
CAR: Burns, Noesen, Slavin, Kotkaniemi, SvechnikovTOR: Tavares, Rielly, McCabe, Robertson, Knies
CAR 0 – 1 TOR
6:27
TORWilliam Nylander (Morgan Rielly)backhand0.16 xG
CAR: Staal, Orlov, Martinook, Chatfield, JarvisTOR: McCabe, Domi, Nylander, Liljegren, McMann
CAR 0 – 2 TOR
12:03
TORNick Robertson (John Tavares, Timothy Liljegren)wrist0.17 xG
CAR: Staal, Fast, Martinook, Slavin, PesceTOR: Tavares, Rielly, Liljegren, Robertson, Knies
CAR 0 – 3 TOR
13:27
CARJordan Martinook (Brent Burns, Jesper Fast)wrist0.19 xG
CAR: Burns, Staal, Fast, Martinook, SlavinTOR: Brodie, McCabe, Bertuzzi, Matthews, Holmberg
CAR 1 – 3 TOR
19:57
CARSeth JarvisPP (Jake Guentzel, Sebastian Aho)backhand0.11 xG
CAR: Burns, Guentzel, Aho, Svechnikov, JarvisTOR: Brodie, Edmundson, Kampf, Dewar
CAR 2 – 3 TOR

3rd period

2:55
TORDavid Kampf (Morgan Rielly)snap0.13 xG
CAR: Burns, Noesen, Slavin, Lemieux, KotkaniemiTOR: Rielly, McCabe, Gregor, Kampf, Dewar
CAR 2 – 4 TOR
18:28
CARSebastian Aho (Jake Guentzel, Dmitry Orlov)wrist0.11 xG
CAR: Burns, Orlov, Guentzel, Aho, Svechnikov, JarvisTOR: Edmundson, Matthews, Lyubushkin, Dewar
CAR 3 – 4 TOR
19:53
CARSebastian Aho (Brent Burns, Evgeny Kuznetsov)tip-in0.12 xG
CAR: Burns, Kuznetsov, Skjei, Aho, Necas, SvechnikovTOR: Brodie, Tavares, McCabe, Nylander, McMann
CAR 4 – 4 TOR

Decided in the shootout: CAR 5 – 4 TOR.

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Carolina Hurricanes

CAR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Sebastian Aho C	L1	2	1	3	+1	4	0.37	3	1	0	25:15	—	—	52	52
Seth Jarvis R	L1	1	0	1	-1	2	0.30	1	3	0	22:42	—	—	41	45
Jake Guentzel C	L1	0	2	2	0	5	0.60	1	0	2	20:22	—	—	59	59
Martin Necas C	L2	0	0	0	+1	6	0.57	1	0	0	20:07	—	—	84	83
Andrei Svechnikov R	L2	0	0	0	0	2	0.20	0	0	0	19:33	—	—	71	73
Evgeny Kuznetsov C	L2	0	1	1	+1	3	0.20	1	0	0	16:57	—	—	88	94
Jesperi Kotkaniemi C	L3	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	0	0	8:42	—	—	39	37
Stefan Noesen R	L3	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	1	0	7:27	—	—	33	28
Brendan Lemieux L	L3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	0	6:09	—	—	57	56
Jordan Staal C	L4	0	0	0	-1	2	0.20	2	2	2	17:22	—	—	61	60
Jordan Martinook L	L4	1	0	1	-1	3	0.47	1	0	2	14:10	—	—	56	49
Jesper Fast R	L4	0	1	1	0	1	0.22	4	1	2	13:23	—	—	71	70
Brent Burns D	D1	0	2	2	0	1	0.12	2	1	0	24:57	—	—	63	48
Jaccob Slavin D	D1	0	0	0	-2	2	0.18	1	2	0	21:08	—	—	62	47
Brady Skjei D	D2	0	0	0	+1	2	0.05	2	3	0	25:06	—	—	50	60
Brett Pesce D	D2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	0	1	0	19:47	—	—	44	54
Dmitry Orlov D	D3	0	1	1	-1	2	0.18	4	0	0	17:02	—	—	70	73
Jalen Chatfield D	D3	0	0	0	-1	4	0.22	0	0	0	13:08	—	—	67	68

CAR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Pyotr Kochetkov(start)	W	40	36	4	.900	5.58	61:26

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
John Tavares C	L1	1	1	2	+1	3	0.58	1	0	2	17:18	—	—	38	42
Matthew Knies L	L1	0	0	0	+2	1	0.11	2	0	2	11:51	—	—	33	40
Nick Robertson L	L1	1	0	1	+2	2	0.79	2	0	0	11:08	—	—	33	40
Auston Matthews C	L2	0	0	0	-1	7	1.45	1	1	0	23:47	—	—	43	43
Tyler Bertuzzi L	L2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.30	0	0	0	15:42	—	—	40	37
Pontus Holmberg R	L2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	0	11:52	—	—	38	35
David Kampf C	L3	1	0	1	+1	1	0.13	2	0	2	16:58	—	—	33	38
Connor Dewar C	L3	0	0	0	+1	2	0.04	4	1	2	13:28	—	—	39	38
Noah Gregor L	L3	0	0	0	+1	1	0.08	4	1	0	9:43	—	—	36	37
William Nylander R	L4	1	0	1	0	3	0.88	0	1	0	21:11	—	—	48	49
Bobby McMann C	L4	0	0	0	0	5	0.37	3	0	0	17:31	—	—	46	51
Max Domi C	L4	0	0	0	+1	7	0.81	0	0	0	15:55	—	—	45	54
Timothy Liljegren D	D1	0	1	1	+2	5	0.07	2	1	0	20:53	—	—	45	54
Joel Edmundson D	D1	0	0	0	0	0	0.03	2	4	0	18:47	—	—	40	45
Morgan Rielly D	D2	0	2	2	+3	2	0.36	2	2	0	23:26	—	—	55	62
Ilya Lyubushkin D	D2	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	7	2	0	15:49	—	—	42	47
TJ Brodie D	D3	0	1	1	-2	0	0.00	0	0	0	22:23	—	—	23	12
Jake McCabe D	D3	0	0	0	+1	0	0.02	4	2	2	21:33	—	—	26	35

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Ilya Samsonov(start)	O	40	36	4	.900	3.88	65:00

Goal anatomy

Animated replays from NHL EDGE tracking, with the entry, passes and shot speed for each goal.

John Tavares (TOR) 2nd 4:47 · assists TJ Brodie · Odd-man rush · carried in · 1-on-0 at the blue line · 34.3 mph shot · 2.2 s from entry to goal.

John Tavares · 2nd 4:47 · TOR

Play: odd-man-rush
Entry: carry
Odd man: 1-on-0
Passes: 1
Shot: 34.3 mph
Distance: 18 ft
Entry to goal: 2.2 s

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

William Nylander · 2nd 6:27 · TOR

Play: odd-man-rush
Entry: carry
Odd man: 2-on-0
Passes: 0
Shot: 19.6 mph
Distance: 6 ft
Entry to goal: 3.0 s

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Nick Robertson · 2nd 12:03 · TOR

Play: odd-man-rush
Entry: carry
Odd man: 1-on-0
Passes: 0
Shot: 41.7 mph
Distance: 10 ft
Entry to goal: 4.6 s

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Jordan Martinook · 2nd 13:27 · CAR

Play: turnover-forecheck
Passes: 3
Shot: 9.3 mph
Distance: 15 ft

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Seth Jarvis · 2nd 19:57 · CAR PP

Play: rebound
Passes: 0
Shot: 28.4 mph
Distance: 6 ft
Type: rebound

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

David Kampf · 3rd 2:55 · TOR

Play: odd-man-rush
Entry: carry
Odd man: 2-on-1
Passes: 1
Shot: 60.4 mph
Distance: 23 ft
Entry to goal: 2.1 s

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Sebastian Aho · 3rd 18:28 · CAR

Play: turnover-forecheck
Passes: 0
Shot: 24.1 mph
Distance: 4 ft

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Sebastian Aho · 3rd 19:53 · CAR

Play: deflection
Passes: 2 (royal road)
Shot: 30.1 mph
Distance: 3 ft
Type: deflection

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.