Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple LeafsNov 4, 2021

Final / OTThursday, Nov 4, 2021· Scotiabank Arena

away

Tampa Bay LightningTBL

1

@

home

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

2

Goals	1	2	3	OT	T		Shots	1	2	3	OT	T
TBL	1	0	0	0	1		TBL	9	8	8	0	25
TOR	0	0	1	1	2		TOR	9	13	7	5	34

: TBL 48TOR 63
: TBL 3.18TOR 3.81
PP goals: TBL 0TOR 1
Hits: TBL 20TOR 13
Blocks: TBL 19TOR 8
PIM: TBL 8TOR 4
: TBL 49%TOR 51%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Toronto Maple Leafs edge Tampa Bay Lightning 2–1 (OT)

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Tampa Bay Lightning 2–1 in overtime at home. Mitch Marner (TOR) led the scoring with 0G 2A. New look for TBL: Stamkos–Palat–Barré-Boulet skated 10:37 together at 5v5 as the L2 trio (50% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.

Points
Auston Matthews had 2 assists (2 points) on 2 shots in 24:25.Matthews
Points
Mitch Marner had 2 assists (2 points) on 4 shots in 25:27.Marner
New line
New look for TBL: Stamkos–Palat–Barré-Boulet skated 10:37 together at 5v5 as the L2 trio (50% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Stamkos Palat Barré-Boulet
Luck
TBL scored 1 goal on 3.18 expected goals (48 attempts), well short of its chances.
Usage
Erik Cernak (TBL) played 23:53, +4:49 up on his 19:04 season average over 54 games.Cernak
New line
New look for TBL: Bellemare–Joseph–Raddysh skated 10:28 together at 5v5 as the L3 trio (38.9% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Bellemare Joseph Raddysh
Usage
Mitch Marner (TOR) played 25:27, +4:38 up on his 20:49 season average over 71 games.Marner
Luck
TOR scored 2 goals on 3.81 expected goals (63 attempts), well short of its chances.

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TBL attacks left (bottom on phones)TOR attacks right (top on phones) →

TOR
TBL
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 111 of 111 attempts · TOR 63 · TBL 48

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

TOR
TBL
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

TOR pressure
TBL pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TBL 22% of the game, TOR 40%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

TOR

TBL

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TBL	TOR
	54	58
	3.38	2.93
	3.00	2.81
	13	11
	2	4
	23	34
	−0.025	+0.025
	22%	40%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Tampa Bay Lightning

L1Killorn – Point – Cirelli
12:1064% CF
L2Stamkos – Palat – Barré-Boulet
10:3750% CF
L3Bellemare – Joseph – Raddysh
10:2839% CF
L4Perry – Maroon – Colton
7:3733% CF
D1McDonagh – Cernak
16:4544% CF
D2Hedman – Rutta
13:4448% CF
D3Sergachev – Foote
7:0558% CF

PP1Killorn – Stamkos – Hedman – Point – Barré-Boulet
0:5850% CF
PP2Perry – Palat – Cirelli – Sergachev – Colton
0:52100% CF

Current TBL line combinations →

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Engvall – Kase – Kampf
9:1153% CF
L2Tavares – Kerfoot – Marner
7:3221% CF
L3Nylander – Bunting – Matthews
7:0454% CF
L4Spezza – Simmonds – Ritchie
5:3670% CF
D1Muzzin – Brodie
17:1447% CF
D2Rielly – Dermott
16:4344% CF
D3Liljegren – Sandin
13:3962% CF

PP1Tavares – Rielly – Nylander – Marner – Matthews
1:27100% CF
PP2Spezza – Ritchie – Bunting – Engvall – Sandin
0:31100% CF
PK1FKerfoot – Nylander
0:40
PK2FEngvall – Kase
0:26
PK1DMuzzin – Brodie
1:11
PK2DRielly – Liljegren
0:40

Current TOR line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

13:16
TBLPatrick Maroon (Corey Perry, Erik Cernak)wrist0.07 xG
TBL: Perry, Maroon, McDonagh, Point, FooteTOR: Spezza, Muzzin, Simmonds, Brodie, Ritchie
TBL 1 – 0 TOR

3rd period

19:18
TORJohn Tavares (Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews)wrist0.10 xG
TBL: Stamkos, Hedman, Palat, Point, SergachevTOR: Tavares, Nylander, Bunting, Marner, Matthews, Sandin
TBL 1 – 1 TOR

OT period

2:43
TORWilliam NylanderPP (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner)slap0.12 xG
TBL: McDonagh, Cirelli, SergachevTOR: Tavares, Nylander, Marner, Matthews
TBL 1 – 2 TOR

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Tampa Bay Lightning

TBL skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Anthony Cirelli C	L1	0	0	0	0	2	0.18	0	3	0	21:08	—	—	55	61
Brayden Point C	L1	0	0	0	0	3	0.60	0	0	0	19:15	—	—	62	75
Alex Killorn L	L1	0	0	0	0	2	0.26	0	0	0	18:49	—	—	62	61
Ondrej Palat L	L2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.05	1	1	0	16:04	—	—	52	58
Steven Stamkos C	L2	0	0	0	-1	4	0.88	1	2	0	16:03	—	—	48	57
Alex Barré-Boulet C	L2	0	0	0	0	0	0.07	2	0	0	13:56	—	—	47	57
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L	L3	0	0	0	0	2	0.13	2	0	0	16:27	—	—	38	23
Mathieu Joseph R	L3	0	0	0	0	2	0.32	1	1	0	14:26	—	—	48	61
Taylor Raddysh R	L3	0	0	0	0	0	0.10	0	0	0	12:14	—	—	40	33
Patrick Maroon L	L4	1	0	1	+1	1	0.10	2	0	0	10:35	—	—	35	43
Corey Perry R	L4	0	1	1	+1	1	0.09	2	1	0	10:17	—	—	33	41
Ross Colton C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.24	0	0	2	9:52	—	—	31	33
Ryan McDonagh D	D1	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	3	1	0	25:12	—	—	51	62
Erik Cernak D	D1	0	1	1	0	0	0.03	4	5	0	23:53	—	—	42	43
Victor Hedman D	D2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	0	2	4	25:43	—	—	42	44
Jan Rutta D	D2	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	1	2	0	15:46	—	—	54	54
Mikhail Sergachev D	D3	0	0	0	-1	3	0.07	0	0	2	22:41	—	—	45	47
Cal Foote D	D3	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	1	1	0	9:48	—	—	65	74

TBL goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Andrei Vasilevskiy(start)	O	34	32	2	.941	3.81	62:43

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
David Kampf C	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	0	0	2	12:40	—	—	47	36
Ondrej Kase R	L1	0	0	0	0	3	0.30	0	0	0	12:14	—	—	53	44
Pierre Engvall L	L1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	11:59	—	—	58	50
Mitch Marner R	L2	0	2	2	+1	4	0.47	0	0	0	25:27	—	—	34	21
John Tavares C	L2	1	0	1	+1	5	0.52	2	2	0	21:32	—	—	48	36
Alexander Kerfoot C	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	1	1	0	14:51	—	—	44	23
Auston Matthews C	L3	0	2	2	+1	2	0.23	1	1	0	24:25	—	—	45	44
William Nylander R	L3	1	0	1	+1	4	0.34	0	0	0	21:28	—	—	59	53
Michael Bunting L	L3	0	0	0	+1	3	0.45	1	0	2	17:56	—	—	52	46
Jason Spezza C	L4	0	0	0	-1	2	0.45	0	0	0	10:45	—	—	68	57
Nick Ritchie L	L4	0	0	0	-1	1	0.14	0	0	0	8:25	—	—	75	83
Wayne Simmonds R	L4	0	0	0	-1	4	0.53	2	0	0	8:13	—	—	63	56
Jake Muzzin D	D1	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	0	20:34	—	—	49	47
TJ Brodie D	D1	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	0	19:26	—	—	50	46
Morgan Rielly D	D2	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	25:35	—	—	45	44
Travis Dermott D	D2	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	17:40	—	—	44	43
Rasmus Sandin D	D3	0	0	0	+1	3	0.18	1	0	0	18:02	—	—	62	53
Timothy Liljegren D	D3	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	1	2	0	16:07	—	—	59	47

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Jack Campbell(start)	W	25	24	1	.960	3.18	61:19

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.