Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple LeafsMay 14, 2022

FinalPlayoffsSaturday, May 14, 2022· Scotiabank Arena

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Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TBL	1	1	0	2		TBL	8	11	6	25
TOR	0	1	0	1		TOR	6	8	17	31

: TBL 45TOR 74
: TBL 2.33TOR 3.24
PP goals: TBL 0TOR 0
Hits: TBL 37TOR 39
Blocks: TBL 26TOR 13
PIM: TBL 6TOR 4
: TBL 39%TOR 61%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Tampa Bay Lightning edge Toronto Maple Leafs 2–1

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Toronto Maple Leafs 2–1 at TOR. Nick Paul (TBL) led the scoring with 2G 0A. Brayden Point (TBL) played 5:51, −14:32 down on his 20:23 season average over 8 games.

Points
Nick Paul had two goals (2 points) on 4 shots in 22:03.Paul
Usage
Brayden Point (TBL) played 5:51, −14:32 down on his 20:23 season average over 8 games.Point
New line
New look for TBL: Stamkos–Kucherov–Cirelli skated 9:22 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (41.2% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Stamkos Kucherov Cirelli
New line
New look for TBL: Killorn–Palat–Paul skated 6:42 together at 5v5 as the L2 trio (37.5% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Killorn Palat Paul
Luck
TOR scored 1 goal on 3.24 expected goals (74 attempts), well short of its chances.
Usage
Erik Cernak (TBL) played 26:24, +7:24 up on his 19:00 season average over 22 games.Cernak
New line
New look for TBL: Bellemare–Colton–Hagel skated 4:26 together at 5v5 as the L3 trio (10% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Bellemare Colton Hagel
Usage
Nick Paul (TBL) played 22:03, +3:55 up on his 18:08 season average over 22 games.Paul

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TBL attacks left (bottom on phones)TOR attacks right (top on phones) →

TOR
TBL
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 119 of 119 attempts · TOR 74 · TBL 45

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

TOR
TBL
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

TOR pressure
TBL pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TBL 21% of the game, TOR 45%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

TOR

TBL

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TBL	TOR
	40	68
	1.62	2.39
	1.62	2.30
	11	13
	8	4
	22	19
	−0.132	+0.132
	21%	45%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Tampa Bay Lightning

L1Stamkos – Kucherov – Cirelli
9:2241% CF
L2Killorn – Palat – Paul
6:4238% CF
L3Bellemare – Colton – Hagel
4:2610% CF
L4Perry – Maroon – Point
0:00
D1Hedman – Cernak
15:5723% CF
D2Sergachev – Foote
9:2025% CF
D3McDonagh – Bogosian
7:5855% CF

PP1Perry – Killorn – Stamkos – Hedman – Kucherov
3:36100% CF
PP2Perry – Palat – Paul – Sergachev – Colton
0:15
PK1FPaul – Cirelli
3:24
PK2FKillorn – Bellemare
1:54
PK1DMcDonagh – Cernak
3:36
PK2DHedman – Sergachev
1:55

Current TBL line combinations →

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Bunting – Marner – Matthews
12:1689% CF
L2Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander
8:4456% CF
L3Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev
7:0343% CF
L4Spezza – Blackwell – Kase
3:1243% CF
D1Muzzin – Brodie
11:2778% CF
D2Giordano – Holl
9:4842% CF
D3Rielly – Lyubushkin
9:4664% CF

PP1Tavares – Rielly – Nylander – Marner – Matthews
4:35100% CF
PP2Spezza – Giordano – Brodie – Bunting – Mikheyev
0:35100% CF
PK1FKase – Kampf
1:03
PK2FKerfoot – Mikheyev
1:00
PK1DBrodie – Holl
0:48
PK2DGiordano – Muzzin
0:34

Current TOR line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

18:24
TBLNick Paul (Ross Colton, Cal Foote)backhand0.01 xG
TBL: McDonagh, Bogosian, Paul, Colton, HagelTOR: Giordano, Rielly, Engvall, Kampf, Mikheyev
TBL 1 – 0 TOR

2nd period

13:25
TORMorgan Rielly (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner)wrist0.05 xG
TBL: Hedman, Palat, Paul, Cernak, ColtonTOR: Holl, Rielly, Bunting, Marner, Matthews
TBL 1 – 1 TOR
16:32
TBLNick Paulwrist0.18 xG
TBL: Killorn, McDonagh, Palat, Paul, SergachevTOR: Muzzin, Brodie, Bunting, Marner, Matthews
TBL 2 – 1 TOR

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Tampa Bay Lightning

TBL skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Anthony Cirelli C	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.19	3	4	0	20:41	—	—	30	42
Nikita Kucherov R	L1	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	0	0	0	18:43	—	—	38	46
Steven Stamkos C	L1	0	0	0	0	3	0.42	2	0	2	16:59	—	—	41	39
Nick Paul L	L2	2	0	2	+1	4	0.55	2	1	0	22:03	—	—	43	54
Alex Killorn L	L2	0	0	0	+1	3	0.40	2	0	0	22:00	—	—	38	35
Ondrej Palat L	L2	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	3	2	16:21	—	—	31	45
Brandon Hagel L	L3	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	1	0	2	14:22	—	—	39	27
Ross Colton C	L3	0	1	1	0	1	0.01	5	1	0	14:14	—	—	38	37
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	0	0	13:48	—	—	29	32
Corey Perry R	L4	0	0	0	0	3	0.39	0	2	0	7:35	—	—	46	67
Brayden Point C	L4	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	3	0	0	5:51	—	—	36	8
Patrick Maroon L	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	4:44	—	—	36	48
Erik Cernak D	D1	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	5	0	0	26:24	—	—	31	40
Victor Hedman D	D1	0	0	0	-1	2	0.09	2	6	0	25:29	—	—	22	38
Mikhail Sergachev D	D2	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	3	0	20:51	—	—	42	36
Cal Foote D	D2	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	4	2	0	10:50	—	—	26	19
Ryan McDonagh D	D3	0	0	0	+2	2	0.07	2	4	0	22:04	—	—	44	53
Zach Bogosian D	D3	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	3	0	0	11:01	—	—	55	69

TBL goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Andrei Vasilevskiy(start)	W	31	30	1	.968	3.24	60:00

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Auston Matthews C	L1	0	1	1	0	4	0.46	6	1	0	25:04	—	—	74	67
Mitch Marner R	L1	0	1	1	0	0	0.05	2	1	0	24:16	—	—	88	79
Michael Bunting L	L1	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	1	0	0	15:50	—	—	91	77
John Tavares C	L2	0	0	0	0	3	0.88	3	1	0	21:52	—	—	60	74
William Nylander R	L2	0	0	0	0	4	0.48	1	0	0	21:31	—	—	61	53
Alexander Kerfoot C	L2	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	15:13	—	—	54	69
David Kampf C	L3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.14	3	0	0	15:10	—	—	48	37
Ilya Mikheyev R	L3	0	0	0	-1	2	0.17	2	1	0	13:16	—	—	56	62
Pierre Engvall L	L3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	3	0	0	11:23	—	—	57	50
Jason Spezza C	L4	0	0	0	0	2	0.20	3	0	0	8:13	—	—	69	51
Ondrej Kase R	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	0	0	8:06	—	—	50	29
Colin Blackwell C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	3	1	0	5:26	—	—	50	42
TJ Brodie D	D1	0	0	0	-1	1	0.07	2	2	0	23:05	—	—	76	70
Jake Muzzin D	D1	0	0	0	-1	4	0.23	1	3	0	19:30	—	—	64	62
Mark Giordano D	D2	0	0	0	-1	2	0.05	0	1	2	19:00	—	—	52	44
Justin Holl D	D2	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	3	1	2	16:12	—	—	52	36
Morgan Rielly D	D3	1	0	1	0	5	0.28	3	0	0	22:57	—	—	61	59
Ilya Lyubushkin D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	0	11:55	—	—	56	61

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Jack Campbell(start)	L	25	23	2	.920	2.33	58:01

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.