Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple LeafsApr 27, 2023

FinalPlayoffsThursday, Apr 27, 2023· Scotiabank Arena

away

Tampa Bay LightningTBL

4

@

home

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

2

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TBL	1	1	2	4		TBL	14	11	13	38
TOR	1	0	1	2		TOR	9	7	14	30

: TBL 70TOR 57
: TBL 3.97TOR 3.78
PP goals: TBL 0TOR 0
Hits: TBL 37TOR 44
Blocks: TBL 13TOR 21
PIM: TBL 4TOR 4
: TBL 42%TOR 58%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Toronto Maple Leafs 4–2

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Toronto Maple Leafs 4–2 at TOR. Anthony Cirelli (TBL) led the scoring with 1G 1A. Ilya Samsonov (TOR) faced 37 shots and stopped 34 (.919), +9 against a season average of 28.3; the loss.

Points
Anthony Cirelli had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 4 shots in 16:28.Cirelli
Points
Michael Eyssimont had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 2 shots in 12:20.Eyssimont
Points
John Tavares had 2 assists (2 points) on 5 shots in 19:19.Tavares
Goalie
Ilya Samsonov (TOR) faced 37 shots and stopped 34 (.919), +9 against a season average of 28.3; the loss.Samsonov
Usage
Justin Holl (TOR) played 12:33, −8:14 down on his 20:47 season average over 7 games.Holl
Usage
Ian Cole (TBL) played 14:40, −4:58 down on his 19:38 season average over 5 games.Cole
Luck
TOR scored 2 goals on 3.78 expected goals (57 attempts), well short of its chances.
Usage
Sam Lafferty (TOR) played 6:51, −4:19 down on his 11:10 season average over 8 games.Lafferty

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TBL attacks left (bottom on phones)TOR attacks right (top on phones) →

TOR
TBL
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 127 of 127 attempts · TOR 57 · TBL 70

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

TOR
TBL
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

TOR pressure
TBL pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TBL 37% of the game, TOR 29%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

TOR

TBL

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TBL	TOR
	66	44
	2.08	2.92
	1.99	2.73
	11	10
	6	2
	29	19
	−0.043	+0.043
	37%	29%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Tampa Bay Lightning

L1Stamkos – Kucherov – Point
12:3756% CF
L2Killorn – Cirelli – Hagel
10:0657% CF
L3Paul – Colton – Eyssimont
9:2181% CF
L4Perry – Maroon – Bellemare
6:0420% CF
D1Hedman – Perbix
17:0558% CF
D2Raddysh – Sergachev
16:5448% CF
D3Cole – Bogosian
9:1469% CF

PP1Killorn – Stamkos – Kucherov – Point – Sergachev
2:55100% CF
PP2Perry – Hedman – Paul – Colton – Hagel
0:390% CF
PK1FCirelli – Hagel
2:09
PK2FKillorn – Bellemare
1:33
PK1DCole – Hedman
1:56
PK2DRaddysh – Sergachev
1:42

Current TBL line combinations →

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Jarnkrok – Nylander – Matthews
9:2255% CF
L2O'Reilly – Kerfoot – Acciari
9:1644% CF
L3Tavares – Marner – Knies
6:4964% CF
L4Lafferty – Aston-Reese – Kampf
5:279% CF
D1Brodie – McCabe
16:1341% CF
D2Schenn – Rielly
15:2234% CF
D3Giordano – Holl
10:4641% CF

PP1O'Reilly – Tavares – Rielly – Marner – Matthews
2:0756% CF
PP2Giordano – Jarnkrok – Kerfoot – Nylander – Knies
0:32100% CF
PK1FMarner – Kampf
2:19
PK2FJarnkrok – Acciari
0:54
PK1DBrodie – Holl
1:11
PK2DGiordano – McCabe
0:38

Current TOR line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

5:46
TORMorgan Rielly (Matthew Knies, John Tavares)wrist0.02 xG
TBL: Paul, Raddysh, Sergachev, Colton, EyssimontTOR: Schenn, Tavares, Rielly, Marner, Knies
TBL 0 – 1 TOR
6:12
TBLAnthony Cirelli (Brandon Hagel, Nick Perbix)wrist0.03 xG
TBL: Killorn, Hedman, Cirelli, Hagel, PerbixTOR: Giordano, O'Reilly, Holl, Kerfoot, Acciari
TBL 1 – 1 TOR

2nd period

4:23
TBLMichael Eyssimont (Zach Bogosian, Ian Cole)wrist0.09 xG
TBL: Hedman, Paul, Colton, Eyssimont, PerbixTOR: Giordano, O'Reilly, Holl, Lafferty, Kampf
TBL 2 – 1 TOR

3rd period

11:53
TBLNick Paul (Ross Colton, Michael Eyssimont)wrist0.02 xG
TBL: Cole, Bogosian, Paul, Colton, EyssimontTOR: Giordano, Holl, Lafferty, Aston-Reese, Kampf
TBL 3 – 1 TOR
16:26
TORAuston Matthews (John Tavares, Mitch Marner)wrist0.07 xG
TBL: Killorn, Cole, Hedman, Cirelli, HagelTOR: O'Reilly, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews
TBL 3 – 2 TOR
19:55
TBLAlex KillornEN (Victor Hedman, Anthony Cirelli)backhand0.91 xG
TBL: Killorn, Hedman, Kucherov, Cirelli, SergachevTOR: O'Reilly, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews
TBL 4 – 2 TOR

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Tampa Bay Lightning

TBL skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Nikita Kucherov R	L1	0	0	0	+1	5	0.22	2	0	0	20:17	—	—	61	44
Brayden Point C	L1	0	0	0	0	2	0.37	4	0	0	19:37	—	—	56	41
Steven Stamkos C	L1	0	0	0	0	5	0.41	3	1	0	18:35	—	—	60	42
Alex Killorn L	L2	1	0	1	+1	4	1.15	1	1	0	19:17	—	—	57	40
Brandon Hagel L	L2	0	1	1	0	5	0.75	0	0	0	19:13	—	—	52	31
Anthony Cirelli C	L2	1	1	2	+1	4	0.16	2	0	0	16:28	—	—	58	32
Nick Paul L	L3	1	0	1	+1	2	0.03	2	0	0	14:30	—	—	76	73
Ross Colton C	L3	0	1	1	+1	1	0.05	5	0	2	12:29	—	—	74	49
Michael Eyssimont C	L3	1	1	2	+1	2	0.18	1	0	0	12:20	—	—	75	71
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	9:31	—	—	38	34
Corey Perry R	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	8:47	—	—	43	35
Patrick Maroon L	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.03	2	0	2	8:42	—	—	44	21
Victor Hedman D	D1	0	1	1	+2	2	0.21	3	5	0	25:36	—	—	60	69
Nick Perbix D	D1	0	1	1	+2	2	0.10	2	3	0	18:09	—	—	59	67
Mikhail Sergachev D	D2	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	4	2	0	24:59	—	—	56	29
Darren Raddysh D	D2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.21	1	1	0	22:07	—	—	52	30
Ian Cole D	D3	0	1	1	0	0	0.01	0	0	0	14:40	—	—	65	32
Zach Bogosian D	D3	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	4	0	0	10:43	—	—	76	36

TBL goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Andrei Vasilevskiy(start)	W	30	28	2	.933	3.78	60:00

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Auston Matthews C	L1	1	0	1	0	3	0.57	4	0	0	23:56	—	—	50	71
William Nylander R	L1	0	0	0	0	4	0.75	1	0	0	21:11	—	—	42	65
Calle Jarnkrok C	L1	0	0	0	0	3	0.70	1	1	0	13:17	—	—	50	72
Ryan O'Reilly C	L2	0	0	0	-2	1	0.13	0	0	0	20:09	—	—	47	21
Noel Acciari C	L2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	9	2	0	13:40	—	—	43	16
Alexander Kerfoot C	L2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	3	0	2	12:43	—	—	39	10
Mitch Marner R	L3	0	1	1	+1	2	0.72	1	3	0	23:46	—	—	42	64
John Tavares C	L3	0	2	2	+1	5	0.54	1	0	0	19:19	—	—	44	62
Matthew Knies L	L3	0	1	1	+1	1	0.08	2	1	0	11:46	—	—	55	81
David Kampf C	L4	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	1	1	0	13:35	—	—	14	5
Sam Lafferty C	L4	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	2	1	0	6:51	—	—	8	0
Zachary Aston-Reese L	L4	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	2	1	0	6:14	—	—	23	6
TJ Brodie D	D1	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	3	1	0	21:17	—	—	41	53
Jake McCabe D	D1	0	0	0	0	1	0.11	5	1	0	20:51	—	—	37	44
Morgan Rielly D	D2	1	0	1	+1	3	0.10	1	6	0	26:24	—	—	41	66
Luke Schenn D	D2	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	4	1	0	15:44	—	—	35	67
Mark Giordano D	D3	0	0	0	-3	1	0.01	1	2	0	16:24	—	—	45	63
Justin Holl D	D3	0	0	0	-3	2	0.05	3	0	2	12:33	—	—	44	33

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Ilya Samsonov(start)	L	37	34	3	.919	2.57	56:20

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.