Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Buffalo SabresNov 13, 2018

FinalTuesday, Nov 13, 2018· KeyBank Center

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Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TBL	0	1	0	1		TBL	8	14	8	30
BUF	1	1	0	2		BUF	11	2	6	19

: TBL 65BUF 36
: TBL 2.72BUF 1.21
PP goals: TBL 0BUF 0
Hits: TBL 33BUF 19
Blocks: TBL 9BUF 17
PIM: TBL 4BUF 4
: TBL 57%BUF 43%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Buffalo Sabres edge Tampa Bay Lightning 2–1

Buffalo Sabres beat Tampa Bay Lightning 2–1 at home. Nathan Beaulieu (BUF) led the scoring with 0G 2A. New look for BUF: Larsson–Girgensons–Thompson skated 10:58 together at 5v5 as the L2 trio (37.5% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.

Points
Nathan Beaulieu had 2 assists (2 points) in 9:36.Beaulieu
New line
New look for BUF: Larsson–Girgensons–Thompson skated 10:58 together at 5v5 as the L2 trio (37.5% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Larsson Girgensons Thompson
New line
New look for TBL: Johnson–Point–Joseph skated 7:19 together at 5v5 as the L2 trio (72.7% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Johnson Point Joseph
Usage
Nathan Beaulieu (BUF) played 9:36, −6:02 down on his 15:38 season average over 47 games.Beaulieu
New line
New look for BUF: Pominville–Sobotka–Rodrigues skated 10:42 together at 5v5 as the L3 trio (36.4% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Pominville Sobotka Rodrigues
New line
New look for TBL: Killorn–Gourde–Cirelli skated 6:40 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (87.5% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Killorn Gourde Cirelli
Usage
J.T. Miller (TBL) played 21:33, +6:59 up on his 14:34 season average over 74 games.Miller
Luck
TBL scored 1 goal on 2.72 expected goals (65 attempts), well short of its chances.

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TBL attacks left (bottom on phones)BUF attacks right (top on phones) →

BUF
TBL
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 101 of 101 attempts · BUF 36 · TBL 65

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

BUF
TBL
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

BUF pressure
TBL pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TBL 66% of the game, BUF 16%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

BUF

TBL

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TBL	BUF
	70	36
	2.79	1.15
	2.61	1.14
	16	5
	5	4
	11	17
	+0.074	−0.074
	66%	16%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Tampa Bay Lightning

L1Stamkos – Kucherov – Miller
17:4772% CF
L2Johnson – Point – Joseph
7:1973% CF
L3Callahan – Paquette – Erne
7:0858% CF
L4Killorn – Gourde – Cirelli
6:4088% CF
D1McDonagh – Cernak
13:2961% CF
D2Girardi – Hedman
11:5331% CF
D3Coburn – Sergachev
9:4869% CF

PP1Johnson – Gourde – Erne – Point – Sergachev
1:00100% CF
PP2Killorn – Stamkos – Hedman – Kucherov – Miller
0:52100% CF
PK1FKillorn – Cirelli
1:19
PK2FCallahan – Paquette
0:29
PK1DGirardi – McDonagh
2:00

Current TBL line combinations →

Buffalo Sabres

L1Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel
13:1248% CF
L2Larsson – Girgensons – Thompson
10:5838% CF
L3Pominville – Sobotka – Rodrigues
10:4236% CF
L4Okposo – Sheary – Mittelstadt
10:2424% CF
D1McCabe – Ristolainen
19:2744% CF
D2Bogosian – Scandella
16:3724% CF
D3Beaulieu – Dahlin
9:3644% CF

PP1Okposo – Skinner – Ristolainen – Reinhart – Eichel
2:00100% CF
PK1FSobotka – Larsson
0:57
PK2FEichel – Rodrigues
0:43
PK1DBogosian – Scandella
1:03
PK2DMcCabe – Ristolainen
0:57

Current BUF line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

17:45
BUFJeff Skinner (Sam Reinhart, Nathan Beaulieu)backhand0.08 xG
TBL: Girardi, Johnson, Hedman, Gourde, PointBUF: Skinner, Beaulieu, Reinhart, Eichel, Dahlin
TBL 0 – 1 BUF

2nd period

5:43
BUFKyle Okposo (Conor Sheary, Nathan Beaulieu)wrist0.09 xG
TBL: Girardi, Johnson, Hedman, Point, JosephBUF: Okposo, Beaulieu, Sheary, Mittelstadt, Dahlin
TBL 0 – 2 BUF
5:58
TBLAnthony Cirelli (Alex Killorn, Yanni Gourde)wrist0.13 xG
TBL: Killorn, McDonagh, Gourde, Cernak, CirelliBUF: Pominville, Sobotka, Beaulieu, Rodrigues, Dahlin
TBL 1 – 2 BUF

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Tampa Bay Lightning

TBL skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Nikita Kucherov R	L1	0	0	0	0	2	0.28	0	1	0	22:29	—	—	72	68
Steven Stamkos C	L1	0	0	0	0	5	0.36	1	0	0	22:01	—	—	68	57
J.T. Miller C	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	1	0	21:33	—	—	72	68
Brayden Point C	L2	0	0	0	-2	3	0.41	0	0	0	17:46	—	—	63	57
Tyler Johnson C	L2	0	0	0	-2	1	0.17	0	0	2	15:39	—	—	67	64
Mathieu Joseph R	L2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.09	2	0	0	11:19	—	—	56	80
Adam Erne L	L3	0	0	0	0	2	0.13	2	0	0	10:06	—	—	62	86
Cedric Paquette C	L3	0	0	0	0	2	0.37	5	1	0	9:52	—	—	53	85
Ryan Callahan R	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	1	0	8:55	—	—	64	86
Yanni Gourde C	L4	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	4	0	0	15:18	—	—	57	51
Alex Killorn L	L4	0	1	1	+1	2	0.21	0	0	0	12:59	—	—	60	80
Anthony Cirelli C	L4	1	0	1	+1	2	0.40	1	0	0	12:04	—	—	77	97
Ryan McDonagh D	D1	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	1	3	0	22:06	—	—	64	72
Erik Cernak D	D1	0	0	0	+1	2	0.03	5	0	2	17:06	—	—	63	72
Victor Hedman D	D2	0	0	0	-2	0	0.01	1	0	0	24:25	—	—	59	43
Dan Girardi D	D2	0	0	0	-2	2	0.05	3	1	0	18:19	—	—	57	64
Mikhail Sergachev D	D3	0	0	0	0	3	0.15	5	1	0	20:25	—	—	77	88
Braydon Coburn D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	15:09	—	—	78	84

TBL goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Louis Domingue(start)	L	19	17	2	.895	1.21	58:29

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Jack Eichel C	L1	0	0	0	+1	3	0.10	0	0	0	19:37	—	—	39	35
Sam Reinhart C	L1	0	1	1	+1	2	0.13	0	0	0	19:24	—	—	37	31
Jeff Skinner L	L1	1	0	1	+1	3	0.24	0	0	2	16:46	—	—	42	37
Johan Larsson L	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	1	1	0	16:13	—	—	39	34
Zemgus Girgensons C	L2	0	0	0	0	0	0.13	2	1	2	14:48	—	—	39	34
Tage Thompson C	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	1	0	11:55	—	—	36	39
Vladimir Sobotka C	L3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	15:03	—	—	25	19
Evan Rodrigues C	L3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.07	0	0	0	12:34	—	—	31	21
Jason Pominville R	L3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	0	11:00	—	—	36	27
Kyle Okposo R	L4	1	0	1	+1	2	0.10	0	0	0	16:05	—	—	26	23
Casey Mittelstadt C	L4	0	0	0	+1	1	0.15	0	0	0	12:39	—	—	21	25
Conor Sheary L	L4	0	1	1	+1	1	0.03	0	0	0	12:03	—	—	22	25
Rasmus Ristolainen D	D1	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	9	2	0	28:08	—	—	41	49
Jake McCabe D	D1	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	1	3	0	22:29	—	—	43	51
Zach Bogosian D	D2	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	3	0	24:07	—	—	21	17
Marco Scandella D	D2	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	3	0	18:57	—	—	24	21
Rasmus Dahlin D	D3	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	1	0	14:36	—	—	32	23
Nathan Beaulieu D	D3	0	2	2	+1	0	0.00	3	1	0	9:36	—	—	44	35

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Carter Hutton(start)	W	30	29	1	.967	2.72	60:00

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.