Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Buffalo SabresOct 25, 2021

FinalMonday, Oct 25, 2021· KeyBank Center

away

Tampa Bay LightningTBL

1

@

home

Buffalo SabresBUF

5

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TBL	1	0	0	1		TBL	14	11	11	36
BUF	1	1	3	5		BUF	9	3	13	25

: TBL 70BUF 44
: TBL 2.57BUF 3.05
PP goals: TBL 0BUF 0
Hits: TBL 17BUF 12
Blocks: TBL 8BUF 18
PIM: TBL 4BUF 6
: TBL 45%BUF 55%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Buffalo Sabres rout Tampa Bay Lightning 5–1

Buffalo Sabres beat Tampa Bay Lightning 5–1 at home. Victor Olofsson (BUF) led the scoring with 2G 0A. Craig Anderson (BUF) faced 36 shots and stopped 35 (.972), +6 against a season average of 30.5; the win.

Points
Victor Olofsson had two goals (2 points) on 3 shots in 16:00.Olofsson
Points
Robert Hagg had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 2 shots in 19:14.Hagg
Points
Tage Thompson had 2 assists (2 points) on 1 shot in 16:35.Thompson
Goalie
Craig Anderson (BUF) faced 36 shots and stopped 35 (.972), +6 against a season average of 30.5; the win.Anderson
Luck
BUF scored 5 goals on 3.05 expected goals (44 attempts), finishing well above its chances.
New line
New look for TBL: Perry–Colton–Barré-Boulet skated 8:26 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (47.1% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Perry Colton Barré-Boulet
Luck
TBL scored 1 goal on 2.57 expected goals (70 attempts), well short of its chances.
Usage
Robert Hagg (BUF) played 19:14, +3:16 up on his 15:58 season average over 63 games.Hagg

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TBL attacks left (bottom on phones)BUF attacks right (top on phones) →

BUF
TBL
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 114 of 114 attempts · BUF 44 · TBL 70

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

BUF
TBL
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

BUF pressure
TBL pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TBL 45% of the game, BUF 22%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

BUF

TBL

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TBL	BUF
	70	43
	2.55	1.88
	2.45	1.76
	18	8
	0	5
	11	14
	−0.057	+0.057
	45%	22%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Tampa Bay Lightning

L1Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli
11:5786% CF
L2Bellemare – Katchouk – Raddysh
9:4769% CF
L3Stamkos – Palat – Point
8:5147% CF
L4Perry – Colton – Barré-Boulet
8:2647% CF
D1Hedman – Rutta
12:5558% CF
D2McDonagh – Cernak
12:5264% CF
D3Sustr – Sergachev
7:3544% CF

PP1Perry – Killorn – Stamkos – Hedman – Point
2:000% CF
PP2Palat – Cirelli – Sergachev – Colton – Barré-Boulet
1:27100% CF
PK1FKillorn – Bellemare
0:42
PK2FKatchouk – Raddysh
0:26
PK1DMcDonagh – Sergachev
1:14
PK2DHedman – Rutta
0:26

Current TBL line combinations →

Buffalo Sabres

L1Olofsson – Asplund – Thompson
11:1436% CF
L2Okposo – Girgensons – Caggiula
10:4725% CF
L3Skinner – Hinostroza – Cozens
10:1945% CF
L4Hayden – Bjork – Ruotsalainen
8:0947% CF
D1Butcher – Dahlin
16:2947% CF
D2Pysyk – Hagg
14:0041% CF
D3Miller – Bryson
13:0022% CF

PP1Skinner – Olofsson – Asplund – Thompson – Dahlin
1:18100% CF
PP2Okposo – Miller – Girgensons – Bryson – Cozens
0:250% CF
PK1FBjork – Caggiula
1:04
PK2FHayden – Ruotsalainen
0:42
PK1DPysyk – Hagg
2:16
PK2DMiller – Bryson
0:29

Current BUF line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

1:41
BUFVictor Olofsson (Tage Thompson, Robert Hagg)wrist0.05 xG
TBL: Stamkos, Hedman, Palat, Point, RuttaBUF: Pysyk, Hagg, Olofsson, Asplund, Thompson
TBL 0 – 1 BUF
18:26
TBLAlex Killorn (Ryan McDonagh, Mathieu Joseph)wrist0.14 xG
TBL: Killorn, McDonagh, Cernak, Joseph, CirelliBUF: Butcher, Olofsson, Asplund, Thompson, Dahlin
TBL 1 – 1 BUF

2nd period

19:22
BUFDrake Caggiulawrist0.15 xG
TBL: Stamkos, Palat, Point, Cernak, SergachevBUF: Okposo, Girgensons, Butcher, Caggiula, Dahlin
TBL 1 – 2 BUF

3rd period

4:25
BUFVinnie Hinostrozawrist0.13 xG
TBL: Killorn, Hedman, Sustr, Joseph, ColtonBUF: Pysyk, Hinostroza, Butcher, Asplund, Thompson
TBL 1 – 3 BUF
14:25
BUFRobert HaggEN (Zemgus Girgensons)wrist0.40 xG
TBL: Perry, Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Point, CirelliBUF: Okposo, Pysyk, Girgensons, Hagg, Caggiula
TBL 1 – 4 BUF
17:30
BUFVictor OlofssonEN (Rasmus Asplund, Tage Thompson)wrist0.77 xG
TBL: Perry, Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Point, CirelliBUF: Pysyk, Hagg, Olofsson, Asplund, Thompson
TBL 1 – 5 BUF

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Tampa Bay Lightning

TBL skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Anthony Cirelli C	L1	0	0	0	-1	2	0.24	1	0	0	20:56	—	—	88	90
Alex Killorn L	L1	1	0	1	-2	2	0.30	0	0	0	20:39	—	—	81	77
Mathieu Joseph R	L1	0	1	1	0	2	0.10	3	0	0	17:10	—	—	70	61
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	1	1	0	11:52	—	—	67	87
Taylor Raddysh R	L2	0	0	0	0	2	0.36	1	0	0	11:46	—	—	72	92
Boris Katchouk L	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	1	0	0	11:38	—	—	68	90
Steven Stamkos C	L3	0	0	0	-4	3	0.24	0	0	0	18:21	—	—	48	50
Brayden Point C	L3	0	0	0	-4	0	0.14	0	0	0	17:07	—	—	52	52
Ondrej Palat L	L3	0	0	0	-2	1	0.13	3	2	0	13:41	—	—	58	52
Alex Barré-Boulet C	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	14:34	—	—	44	31
Corey Perry R	L4	0	0	0	-2	1	0.02	2	1	0	14:25	—	—	50	31
Ross Colton C	L4	0	0	0	-1	3	0.25	0	1	0	13:20	—	—	40	21
Victor Hedman D	D1	0	0	0	-4	1	0.05	0	0	0	22:43	—	—	51	44
Jan Rutta D	D1	0	0	0	-1	3	0.06	1	1	0	17:21	—	—	64	57
Ryan McDonagh D	D2	0	1	1	+1	5	0.26	0	1	0	22:24	—	—	72	76
Erik Cernak D	D2	0	0	0	0	5	0.04	3	0	4	19:17	—	—	67	63
Mikhail Sergachev D	D3	0	0	0	-1	3	0.11	0	1	0	19:13	—	—	61	54
Andrej Sustr D	D3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.04	0	0	0	12:29	—	—	50	49

TBL goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Brian Elliott(start)	L	23	20	3	.870	1.88	57:04

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Tage Thompson C	L1	0	2	2	+2	1	0.05	0	0	0	16:35	—	—	40	27
Victor Olofsson L	L1	2	0	2	+1	3	0.90	0	1	0	16:00	—	—	33	19
Rasmus Asplund C	L1	0	1	1	+2	0	0.05	0	0	2	15:50	—	—	39	25
Kyle Okposo R	L2	0	0	0	+2	1	0.03	1	1	0	18:03	—	—	27	31
Zemgus Girgensons C	L2	0	1	1	+2	1	0.08	0	1	0	17:02	—	—	25	31
Drake Caggiula L	L2	1	0	1	+2	2	0.20	1	0	0	17:01	—	—	27	33
Dylan Cozens C	L3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	14:15	—	—	41	64
Vinnie Hinostroza C	L3	1	0	1	+1	2	0.31	0	1	0	13:52	—	—	46	64
Jeff Skinner L	L3	0	0	0	0	4	0.40	0	0	0	13:00	—	—	48	80
Arttu Ruotsalainen C	L4	0	0	0	0	2	0.21	0	0	0	11:44	—	—	44	59
Anders Bjork L	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	0	1	0	11:17	—	—	44	54
John Hayden C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	5	0	2	10:39	—	—	46	64
Rasmus Dahlin D	D1	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	1	1	0	23:08	—	—	44	46
Will Butcher D	D1	0	0	0	+1	0	0.06	0	2	0	20:44	—	—	49	48
Mark Pysyk D	D2	0	0	0	+4	1	0.11	0	1	0	19:29	—	—	41	51
Robert Hagg D	D2	1	1	2	+3	2	0.41	1	3	0	19:14	—	—	36	38
Colin Miller D	D3	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	3	3	2	19:01	—	—	23	34
Jacob Bryson D	D3	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	2	0	17:08	—	—	30	37

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Craig Anderson(start)	W	36	35	1	.972	2.57	59:58

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.