Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Buffalo SabresMar 4, 2023

FinalSaturday, Mar 4, 2023· KeyBank Center

away

Tampa Bay LightningTBL

3

@

home

Buffalo SabresBUF

5

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TBL	1	0	2	3		TBL	13	8	15	36
BUF	1	3	1	5		BUF	13	17	4	34

: TBL 62BUF 58
: TBL 3.13BUF 3.44
PP goals: TBL 1BUF 2
Hits: TBL 28BUF 17
Blocks: TBL 12BUF 13
PIM: TBL 17BUF 17
: TBL 63%BUF 37%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Buffalo Sabres beat Tampa Bay Lightning 5–3

Buffalo Sabres beat Tampa Bay Lightning 5–3 at home. Alex Killorn (TBL) led the scoring with 2G 0A. BUF's first power-play unit (Skinner, Olofsson, Thompson, Dahlin and Cozens) scored 2 power-play goals on 8 attempts in 3:06 together.

Points
Alex Killorn had two goals (2 points) on 2 shots in 18:18.Killorn
Points
Jeff Skinner had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 1 shot in 16:56.Skinner
Points
Tage Thompson had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 1 shot in 18:15.Thompson
PP1
BUF's first power-play unit (Skinner, Olofsson, Thompson, Dahlin and Cozens) scored 2 power-play goals on 8 attempts in 3:06 together.Skinner Olofsson Thompson Dahlin Cozens
New line
New look for TBL: Maroon–Colton–Eyssimont skated 5:24 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (0% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Maroon Colton Eyssimont
Usage
Rasmus Dahlin (BUF) played 15:43, −10:13 down on his 25:56 season average over 77 games.Dahlin
Usage
Ilya Lyubushkin (BUF) played 23:17, +8:24 up on his 14:53 season average over 67 games.Lyubushkin
Goalie
Eric Comrie (BUF) faced 36 shots and stopped 33 (.917), +5 against a season average of 31.3; the win.Comrie

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TBL attacks left (bottom on phones)BUF attacks right (top on phones) →

BUF
TBL
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 120 of 120 attempts · BUF 58 · TBL 62

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

BUF
TBL
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

BUF pressure
TBL pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TBL 30% of the game, BUF 37%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

BUF

TBL

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TBL	BUF
	43	53
	1.77	2.76
	1.72	2.55
	8	12
	2	7
	16	19
	+0.091	−0.091
	30%	37%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Tampa Bay Lightning

L1Maroon – Colton – Eyssimont
5:240% CF
L2Kucherov – Point – Hagel
5:0963% CF
L3Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli
4:1463% CF
L4Perry – Paul – Jeannot
3:5625% CF
D1Cole – Perbix
11:5464% CF
D2Bogosian – Sergachev
7:0438% CF
D3Hedman – Raddysh
6:0843% CF

PP1Killorn – Stamkos – Kucherov – Point – Sergachev
4:5488% CF
PP2Perry – Hedman – Paul – Colton – Hagel
0:55100% CF
PK1FCirelli – Hagel
1:32
PK2FKillorn – Jeannot
1:23
PK1DCole – Sergachev
2:07
PK2DBogosian – Hedman
0:12

Current TBL line combinations →

Buffalo Sabres

L1Hinostroza – Mittelstadt – Cozens
8:5668% CF
L2Skinner – Thompson – Quinn
8:2925% CF
L3Olofsson – Krebs – Peterka
8:1261% CF
L4Okposo – Girgensons – Jost
6:3245% CF
D1Jokiharju – Power
9:5763% CF
D2Samuelsson – Dahlin
9:4947% CF
D3Stillman – Lyubushkin
5:4883% CF

PP1Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson – Dahlin – Cozens
3:06100% CF
PP2Mittelstadt – Krebs – Quinn – Peterka – Power
1:000% CF
PK1FOkposo – Krebs
2:26
PK2FGirgensons – Jost
0:48
PK1DSamuelsson – Lyubushkin
2:51
PK2DJokiharju – Power
2:23

Current BUF line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

13:28
TBLBrayden PointPP (Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos)snap0.15 xG
TBL: Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Cirelli, SergachevBUF: Jost, Samuelsson, Lyubushkin, Krebs
TBL 1 – 0 BUF
16:15
BUFTage ThompsonPP (Rasmus Dahlin)wrist0.06 xG
TBL: Killorn, Cole, Sergachev, JeannotBUF: Skinner, Olofsson, Thompson, Dahlin, Cozens
TBL 1 – 1 BUF

2nd period

5:35
BUFVinnie Hinostroza (Casey Mittelstadt, Dylan Cozens)snap0.17 xG
TBL: Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Cirelli, PerbixBUF: Hinostroza, Mittelstadt, Jokiharju, Cozens, Power
TBL 1 – 2 BUF
12:30
BUFTyson Jostbackhand0.16 xG
TBL: Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, SergachevBUF: Jost, Samuelsson, Lyubushkin, Cozens
TBL 1 – 3 BUF
19:46
BUFJack Quinn (Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner)wrist0.08 xG
TBL: Perry, Cole, Stamkos, Point, PerbixBUF: Skinner, Thompson, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Quinn
TBL 1 – 4 BUF

3rd period

0:53
BUFJeff SkinnerPPwrist0.10 xG
TBL: Killorn, Cole, Paul, SergachevBUF: Skinner, Olofsson, Thompson, Dahlin, Cozens
TBL 1 – 5 BUF
2:55
TBLAlex Killorn (Nick Perbix, Nick Paul)tip-in0.10 xG
TBL: Killorn, Cole, Paul, Hagel, PerbixBUF: Olofsson, Jokiharju, Lyubushkin, Krebs, Peterka
TBL 2 – 5 BUF
13:18
TBLAlex KillornSH (Tanner Jeannot, Victor Hedman)backhand0.34 xG
TBL: Killorn, Cole, Hedman, JeannotBUF: Olofsson, Thompson, Dahlin, Krebs, Quinn
TBL 3 – 5 BUF

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Tampa Bay Lightning

TBL skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Ross Colton C	L1	0	0	0	0	4	0.34	3	1	0	15:08	—	—	37	37
Patrick Maroon L	L1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	2	14:28	—	—	33	30
Michael Eyssimont C	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.19	4	0	2	12:20	—	—	23	23
Brandon Hagel L	L2	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	0	0	18:25	—	—	63	68
Nikita Kucherov R	L2	0	1	1	-1	2	0.34	0	0	0	16:38	—	—	44	31
Brayden Point C	L2	1	0	1	-2	7	0.71	0	0	0	14:34	—	—	60	44
Alex Killorn L	L3	2	0	2	+1	2	0.51	1	0	0	18:18	—	—	65	49
Anthony Cirelli C	L3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	2	15:45	—	—	52	30
Steven Stamkos C	L3	0	1	1	-3	1	0.09	1	0	0	13:28	—	—	50	21
Nick Paul L	L4	0	1	1	+1	3	0.14	5	0	2	15:59	—	—	44	69
Corey Perry R	L4	0	0	0	-1	1	0.15	0	0	2	13:23	—	—	55	58
Tanner Jeannot L	L4	0	1	1	+1	1	0.09	3	1	5	12:52	—	—	41	55
Ian Cole D	D1	0	0	0	+1	5	0.19	0	2	0	22:52	—	—	63	62
Nick Perbix D	D1	0	1	1	-1	1	0.03	1	0	0	17:20	—	—	57	42
Mikhail Sergachev D	D2	0	0	0	-1	2	0.21	1	1	2	24:32	—	—	38	44
Zach Bogosian D	D2	0	0	0	0	3	0.02	3	2	0	16:41	—	—	38	40
Victor Hedman D	D3	0	1	1	0	2	0.11	1	2	0	19:50	—	—	27	11
Darren Raddysh D	D3	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	1	0	12:20	—	—	43	36

TBL goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Brian Elliott(start)	L	34	29	5	.853	3.44	57:30

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Dylan Cozens C	L1	0	1	1	+2	5	0.76	2	0	0	15:27	—	—	65	61
Casey Mittelstadt C	L1	0	1	1	+1	3	0.33	0	0	0	14:43	—	—	67	65
Vinnie Hinostroza C	L1	1	0	1	+1	2	0.18	0	0	0	12:04	—	—	70	63
Tage Thompson C	L2	1	1	2	0	1	0.08	0	1	0	18:15	—	—	40	54
Jeff Skinner L	L2	1	1	2	+1	1	0.15	0	0	2	16:56	—	—	29	36
Jack Quinn R	L2	1	0	1	0	1	0.08	0	0	0	14:16	—	—	41	50
Peyton Krebs C	L3	0	0	0	-2	1	0.05	0	0	0	16:45	—	—	61	65
Victor Olofsson L	L3	0	0	0	-2	3	0.61	0	1	0	13:32	—	—	64	67
JJ Peterka R	L3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.12	0	0	0	11:51	—	—	65	69
Kyle Okposo R	L4	0	0	0	0	4	0.08	1	1	0	14:16	—	—	44	63
Tyson Jost C	L4	1	0	1	+1	4	0.61	1	0	0	13:55	—	—	50	59
Zemgus Girgensons C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	0	0	11:36	—	—	46	67
Owen Power D	D1	0	0	0	+1	1	0.06	0	1	2	24:54	—	—	57	54
Henri Jokiharju D	D1	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	4	1	0	20:26	—	—	54	54
Mattias Samuelsson D	D2	0	0	0	+2	3	0.14	4	4	2	24:22	—	—	46	66
Rasmus Dahlin D	D2	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	1	1	4	15:43	—	—	44	68
Ilya Lyubushkin D	D3	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	3	0	23:17	—	—	53	54
Riley Stillman D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.04	2	0	7	7:57	—	—	83	85

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Eric Comrie(start)	W	36	33	3	.917	3.13	59:54

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.