Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Colorado AvalancheDec 29, 2017

Final / OTFriday, Dec 29, 2017· Pepsi Center

away

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

3

@

home

Colorado AvalancheCOL

4

Goals	1	2	3	OT	T		Shots	1	2	3	OT	T
TOR	1	1	1	0	3		TOR	6	11	16	1	34
COL	1	1	1	1	4		COL	7	8	9	4	28

: TOR 58COL 58
: TOR 2.49COL 2.05
PP goals: TOR 0COL 1
Hits: TOR 21COL 17
Blocks: TOR 14COL 17
PIM: TOR 6COL 4
: TOR 63%COL 37%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Colorado Avalanche edge Toronto Maple Leafs 4–3 (OT)

Colorado Avalanche beat Toronto Maple Leafs 4–3 in overtime at home. Nathan MacKinnon (COL) led the scoring with 1G 2A. Samuel Girard (COL) played 12:00, −5:44 down on his 17:44 season average over 72 games.

Points
Nathan MacKinnon had a goal and 2 assists (3 points) on 5 shots in 22:17.MacKinnon
Points
Roman Polak had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 2 shots in 21:52.Polak
Points
Nikita Zadorov had 2 assists (2 points) in 23:25.Zadorov
Usage
Samuel Girard (COL) played 12:00, −5:44 down on his 17:44 season average over 72 games.Girard
Luck
COL scored 4 goals on 2.05 expected goals (58 attempts), finishing well above its chances.
New line
New look for COL: Wilson–Bourque–Jost skated 6:27 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (57.1% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Wilson Bourque Jost
New line
New look for TOR: Moore–Martin–Leivo skated 7:18 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (71.4% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Moore Martin Leivo
Usage
Roman Polak (TOR) played 21:52, +4:18 up on his 17:34 season average over 53 games.Polak

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)COL attacks right (top on phones) →

COL
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 116 of 116 attempts · COL 58 · TOR 58

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

COL
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

COL pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 37% of the game, COL 36%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

COL

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	COL
	50	53
	2.13	1.77
	2.11	1.72
	8	8
	4	5
	11	7
	+0.076	−0.076
	37%	36%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Hyman – Nylander – Matthews
11:0650% CF
L2van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner
10:4744% CF
L3Marleau – Komarov – Brown
9:1563% CF
L4Moore – Martin – Leivo
7:1871% CF
D1Gardiner – Marincin
13:0861% CF
D2Hainsey – Rielly
12:5739% CF
D3Polak – Borgman
11:0778% CF

PP1Marleau – van Riemsdyk – Gardiner – Bozak – Marner
1:55100% CF
PP2Komarov – Gardiner – Leivo – Nylander – Matthews
1:28100% CF
PK1FKomarov – Hyman
3:11
PK2FMoore – Brown
2:39
PK1DHainsey – Polak
2:48
PK2DMarincin – Rielly
1:12

Current TOR line combinations →

Colorado Avalanche

L1Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen
13:5958% CF
L2Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto
10:4036% CF
L3Kerfoot – Andrighetto – Compher
8:4536% CF
L4Wilson – Bourque – Jost
6:2757% CF
D1Johnson – Zadorov
12:3770% CF
D2Barberio – Nemeth
11:0655% CF
D3Lindholm – Girard
6:0136% CF

PP1Johnson – Landeskog – Compher – MacKinnon – Rantanen
4:06100% CF
PP2Soderberg – Wilson – Kerfoot – Andrighetto – Girard
1:47100% CF
PK1FLandeskog – Compher
1:03
PK2FSoderberg – Nieto
1:01
PK1DJohnson – Nemeth
2:48
PK2DBarberio – Zadorov
1:09

Current COL line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

11:24
COLNathan MacKinnon (Gabriel Landeskog)backhand0.03 xG
TOR: Hainsey, Hyman, Rielly, Nylander, MatthewsCOL: Johnson, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Zadorov, Rantanen
TOR 0 – 1 COL
14:55
TORMatt Martin (Josh Leivo, Roman Polak)backhand0.02 xG
TOR: Moore, Polak, Martin, Leivo, BorgmanCOL: Comeau, Johnson, Kerfoot, Compher, Lindholm
TOR 1 – 1 COL

2nd period

10:29
COLMikko Rantanen (Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Zadorov)wrist0.11 xG
TOR: Marleau, Hainsey, Komarov, Rielly, BrownCOL: Johnson, Nemeth, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen
TOR 1 – 2 COL
14:04
TORRoman Polak (Andreas Borgman, Patrick Marleau)wrist0.03 xG
TOR: Marleau, Polak, Komarov, Brown, BorgmanCOL: Soderberg, Johnson, Wilson, Nemeth, Nieto
TOR 2 – 2 COL

3rd period

4:34
COLAlexander Kerfoot (Nikita Zadorov, Nathan MacKinnon)wrist0.05 xG
TOR: Marleau, Polak, Komarov, Rielly, BrownCOL: Johnson, Kerfoot, MacKinnon, Zadorov, Rantanen
TOR 2 – 3 COL
18:05
TORJames van Riemsdyk (Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner)backhand0.17 xG
TOR: Marleau, van Riemsdyk, Gardiner, Bozak, Rielly, MarnerCOL: Comeau, Soderberg, Barberio, Compher, Zadorov
TOR 3 – 3 COL

OT period

3:25
COLJ.T. CompherPP (Samuel Girard, Carl Soderberg)wrist0.04 xG
TOR: Hainsey, Polak, HymanCOL: Soderberg, Kerfoot, Compher, Girard
TOR 3 – 4 COL

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Auston Matthews C	L1	0	0	0	-1	5	0.50	0	0	0	19:52	—	—	39	49
Zach Hyman L	L1	0	0	0	-1	1	0.17	1	1	0	19:44	—	—	42	47
William Nylander R	L1	0	0	0	-1	1	0.11	0	1	0	16:36	—	—	40	44
Mitch Marner R	L2	0	0	0	+1	3	0.07	0	0	2	16:12	—	—	43	39
Tyler Bozak C	L2	0	0	0	+1	1	0.07	0	0	0	16:06	—	—	47	23
James van Riemsdyk L	L2	1	0	1	+1	4	0.37	0	0	0	15:13	—	—	50	67
Patrick Marleau C	L3	0	1	1	0	6	0.80	0	0	0	16:22	—	—	48	62
Leo Komarov R	L3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	6	2	0	16:16	—	—	58	50
Connor Brown R	L3	0	0	0	-1	4	0.14	0	0	2	15:35	—	—	57	52
Dominic Moore C	L4	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	1	0	0	12:02	—	—	69	99
Josh Leivo L	L4	0	1	1	+1	1	0.06	0	0	0	10:05	—	—	75	92
Matt Martin L	L4	1	0	1	+1	1	0.02	3	0	0	8:57	—	—	75	92
Jake Gardiner D	D1	0	1	1	+1	1	0.05	0	2	0	21:35	—	—	64	63
Martin Marincin D	D1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	17:55	—	—	52	52
Ron Hainsey D	D2	0	0	0	-2	1	0.03	1	1	0	24:48	—	—	38	51
Morgan Rielly D	D2	0	1	1	-2	1	0.03	0	0	0	22:42	—	—	32	27
Roman Polak D	D3	1	1	2	+1	2	0.04	7	4	2	21:52	—	—	58	77
Andreas Borgman D	D3	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	1	2	0	13:13	—	—	64	74

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Calvin Pickard(start)	O	28	24	4	.857	2.05	62:35

Colorado Avalanche

COL skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Gabriel Landeskog L	L1	0	1	1	+2	2	0.17	1	0	0	23:43	—	—	58	63
Nathan MacKinnon C	L1	1	2	3	+3	5	0.27	0	2	0	22:17	—	—	61	66
Mikko Rantanen R	L1	1	0	1	+3	4	0.58	0	0	2	22:00	—	—	60	63
Carl Soderberg C	L2	0	1	1	-2	0	0.00	1	2	0	18:58	—	—	44	26
Blake Comeau L	L2	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	1	0	2	16:59	—	—	42	5
Matt Nieto L	L2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	15:18	—	—	47	10
J.T. Compher L	L3	1	0	1	-2	1	0.08	0	1	0	16:46	—	—	29	22
Alexander Kerfoot C	L3	1	0	1	0	1	0.05	0	0	0	12:49	—	—	47	58
Sven Andrighetto R	L3	0	0	0	0	2	0.29	2	0	0	12:40	—	—	50	57
Colin Wilson C	L4	0	0	0	-1	1	0.08	0	0	0	10:15	—	—	58	54
Gabriel Bourque L	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	0	0	9:58	—	—	39	5
Tyson Jost C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	1	0	9:04	—	—	57	42
Erik Johnson D	D1	0	0	0	+1	6	0.33	3	4	0	29:40	—	—	53	42
Nikita Zadorov D	D1	0	2	2	+1	0	0.08	1	5	0	23:25	—	—	61	59
Patrik Nemeth D	D2	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	0	0	0	21:56	—	—	41	35
Mark Barberio D	D2	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	3	2	0	19:09	—	—	50	54
Samuel Girard D	D3	0	1	1	0	0	0.04	1	0	0	12:00	—	—	56	68
Anton Lindholm D	D3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	3	0	0	11:10	—	—	38	27

COL goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Semyon Varlamov(start)	W	34	31	3	.912	2.49	63:25

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.