Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Colorado AvalancheFeb 12, 2019

FinalTuesday, Feb 12, 2019· Pepsi Center

away

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

5

@

home

Colorado AvalancheCOL

2

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TOR	1	3	1	5		TOR	9	12	7	28
COL	1	0	1	2		COL	17	10	9	36

: TOR 44COL 66
: TOR 1.74COL 2.25
PP goals: TOR 3COL 0
Hits: TOR 20COL 19
Blocks: TOR 20COL 11
PIM: TOR 4COL 12
: TOR 46%COL 54%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Colorado Avalanche 5–2

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Colorado Avalanche 5–2 at COL. Auston Matthews (TOR) led the scoring with 1G 2A. TOR's first power-play unit (Tavares, Kadri, Rielly, Marner and Matthews) scored 2 power-play goals on 5 attempts in 3:19 together.

Points
Auston Matthews had a goal and 2 assists (3 points) on 4 shots in 18:16.Matthews
Points
Kasperi Kapanen had two goals (2 points) on 4 shots in 15:36.Kapanen
Points
Nazem Kadri had two goals (2 points) on 3 shots in 14:58.Kadri
Points
Alexander Kerfoot had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 1 shot in 14:06.Kerfoot
Points
John Tavares had 2 assists (2 points) on 2 shots in 18:19.Tavares
Points
Samuel Girard had 2 assists (2 points) on 2 shots in 18:25.Girard
PP1
TOR's first power-play unit (Tavares, Kadri, Rielly, Marner and Matthews) scored 2 power-play goals on 5 attempts in 3:19 together.Tavares Kadri Rielly Marner Matthews
Luck
TOR scored 5 goals on 1.74 expected goals (44 attempts), finishing well above its chances.

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)COL attacks right (top on phones) →

COL
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 110 of 110 attempts · COL 66 · TOR 44

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

COL
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

COL pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 16% of the game, COL 37%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

COL

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	COL
	40	65
	1.08	1.86
	1.08	1.74
	7	13
	6	0
	19	18
	+0.016	−0.016
	16%	37%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Tavares – Hyman – Marner
10:3925% CF
L2Marleau – Kapanen – Matthews
9:5954% CF
L3Brown – Gauthier – Lindholm
8:1633% CF
L4Kadri – Johnsson – Nylander
7:2350% CF
D1Gardiner – Dermott
11:0067% CF
D2Hainsey – Rielly
9:3828% CF
D3Muzzin – Zaitsev
9:0856% CF

PP1Tavares – Kadri – Rielly – Marner – Matthews
3:1971% CF
PP2Marleau – Gardiner – Johnsson – Nylander – Kapanen
1:4875% CF
PK1FBrown – Kapanen
1:27
PK2FHyman – Marner
1:15
PK1DHainsey – Zaitsev
3:55
PK2DMuzzin – Rielly
1:22

Current TOR line combinations →

Colorado Avalanche

L1Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen
15:2257% CF
L2Kerfoot – Compher – Jost
8:5740% CF
L3Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto
8:4586% CF
L4Andrighetto – Greer – Dries
4:5650% CF
D1Johnson – Zadorov
6:4673% CF
D2Barrie – Girard
6:3886% CF
D3Nemeth – Graves
3:4925% CF

PP1Soderberg – Kerfoot – Andrighetto – Jost – Girard
3:08100% CF
PP2Barrie – Landeskog – Compher – MacKinnon – Rantanen
2:4750% CF
PK1FNieto – Dries
2:21
PK2FSoderberg – Calvert
1:25
PK1DJohnson – Nemeth
3:48
PK2DGraves – Zadorov
0:22

Current COL line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

3:17
TORKasperi Kapanen (Auston Matthews)wrist0.06 xG
TOR: Marleau, Muzzin, Rielly, Kapanen, MatthewsCOL: Johnson, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen, Girard
TOR 1 – 0 COL
15:16
COLRyan Graves (Alexander Kerfoot, Samuel Girard)slap0.01 xG
TOR: Marleau, Rielly, Kapanen, Dermott, MatthewsCOL: Kerfoot, Graves, Compher, Zadorov, Jost
TOR 1 – 1 COL

2nd period

5:19
TORAuston MatthewsPP (John Tavares, Mitch Marner)wrist0.14 xG
TOR: Tavares, Kadri, Rielly, Marner, MatthewsCOL: Soderberg, Johnson, Calvert, Zadorov
TOR 2 – 1 COL
6:46
TORNazem KadriPP (John Tavares, Auston Matthews)wrist0.15 xG
TOR: Tavares, Kadri, Rielly, Marner, MatthewsCOL: Soderberg, Johnson, Calvert, Nemeth
TOR 3 – 1 COL
7:08
TORKasperi KapanenPP (Patrick Marleau)wrist0.03 xG
TOR: Marleau, Gardiner, Johnsson, Nylander, KapanenCOL: Nieto, Graves, Zadorov, Dries
TOR 4 – 1 COL

3rd period

5:42
TORNazem Kadri (William Nylander, Andreas Johnsson)wrist0.14 xG
TOR: Muzzin, Kadri, Johnsson, Nylander, ZaitsevCOL: Barrie, Kerfoot, Graves, Compher, Jost
TOR 5 – 1 COL
8:14
COLAlexander Kerfoot (Samuel Girard)tip-in0.07 xG
TOR: Hainsey, Hyman, Dermott, Marner, ZaitsevCOL: Soderberg, Kerfoot, Andrighetto, Jost, Girard
TOR 5 – 2 COL

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mitch Marner R	L1	0	1	1	-1	0	0.00	2	1	0	18:40	—	—	21	10
John Tavares C	L1	0	2	2	0	2	0.22	0	2	0	18:19	—	—	30	13
Zach Hyman L	L1	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	2	0	16:58	—	—	29	12
Auston Matthews C	L2	1	2	3	0	4	0.21	0	1	0	18:16	—	—	43	46
Patrick Marleau C	L2	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0	3	0	17:05	—	—	46	55
Kasperi Kapanen R	L2	2	0	2	0	4	0.16	1	0	2	15:36	—	—	47	55
Connor Brown R	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	0	0	12:55	—	—	38	8
Par Lindholm C	L3	0	0	0	0	2	0.18	2	1	0	11:20	—	—	37	16
Frederik Gauthier C	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	0	0	9:31	—	—	32	9
Nazem Kadri C	L4	2	0	2	+1	3	0.30	0	0	0	14:58	—	—	47	64
William Nylander R	L4	0	1	1	+1	5	0.29	0	0	0	13:21	—	—	53	75
Andreas Johnsson L	L4	0	1	1	+1	0	0.07	3	0	0	12:20	—	—	53	66
Jake Gardiner D	D1	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	0	2	0	18:52	—	—	63	60
Travis Dermott D	D1	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	1	1	2	16:14	—	—	37	35
Morgan Rielly D	D2	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	1	1	0	22:37	—	—	28	28
Ron Hainsey D	D2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.03	5	3	0	19:01	—	—	24	12
Nikita Zaitsev D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	19:45	—	—	46	48
Jake Muzzin D	D3	0	0	0	+2	2	0.11	3	2	0	18:12	—	—	40	54

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Frederik Andersen(start)	W	36	34	2	.944	2.25	60:00

Colorado Avalanche

COL skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mikko Rantanen R	L1	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	0	20:15	—	—	64	68
Gabriel Landeskog L	L1	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	4	1	0	20:14	—	—	54	48
Nathan MacKinnon C	L1	0	0	0	-1	2	0.09	1	0	0	19:50	—	—	64	63
J.T. Compher L	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	0	0	4	15:54	—	—	48	51
Tyson Jost C	L2	0	0	0	+1	1	0.09	0	0	0	14:54	—	—	40	30
Alexander Kerfoot C	L2	1	1	2	+1	1	0.07	0	0	0	14:06	—	—	42	30
Carl Soderberg C	L3	0	0	0	+1	7	0.66	0	0	0	16:06	—	—	82	91
Matt Nieto L	L3	0	0	0	0	5	0.32	1	1	0	15:11	—	—	79	84
Matt Calvert L	L3	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	2	0	0	13:41	—	—	84	91
Sheldon Dries C	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	11:01	—	—	50	48
Sven Andrighetto R	L4	0	0	0	+1	0	0.10	0	0	2	10:30	—	—	73	85
A.J. Greer L	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	2	8:08	—	—	50	48
Erik Johnson D	D1	0	0	0	-1	4	0.07	0	2	0	22:33	—	—	66	68
Nikita Zadorov D	D1	0	0	0	+1	2	0.04	5	0	2	18:21	—	—	76	77
Tyson Barrie D	D2	0	0	0	-1	4	0.28	0	2	2	22:41	—	—	61	58
Samuel Girard D	D2	0	2	2	0	2	0.07	0	0	0	18:25	—	—	62	75
Patrik Nemeth D	D3	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	0	0	0	17:59	—	—	42	33
Ryan Graves D	D3	1	0	1	0	3	0.04	3	3	0	14:14	—	—	45	33

COL goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Philipp Grubauer	—	11	10	1	.909	0.60	32:52
Semyon Varlamov(start)	L	17	13	4	.765	1.14	27:08

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.