Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Carolina HurricanesMar 25, 2023

FinalSaturday, Mar 25, 2023· PNC Arena

away

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

3

@

home

Carolina HurricanesCAR

5

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	2	1	3		TOR	16	18	10	44
CAR	2	0	3	5		CAR	16	5	7	28

: TOR 78CAR 46
: TOR 5.69CAR 3.05
PP goals: TOR 0CAR 1
Hits: TOR 16CAR 14
Blocks: TOR 10CAR 16
PIM: TOR 4CAR 6
: TOR 41%CAR 59%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Carolina Hurricanes beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5–3

Carolina Hurricanes beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5–3 at home. Auston Matthews (TOR) led the scoring with 2G 0A. New look for CAR: Teravainen–Aho–Necas skated 9:50 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (25% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.

Points
Auston Matthews had two goals (2 points) on 15 shots in 22:19.Matthews
Points
Sebastian Aho had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 3 shots in 20:59.Aho
Points
Jesper Fast had 2 assists (2 points) in 15:00.Fast
Points
Martin Necas had 2 assists (2 points) on 2 shots in 19:20.Necas
Points
Morgan Rielly had 2 assists (2 points) in 21:48.Rielly
New line
New look for CAR: Teravainen–Aho–Necas skated 9:50 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (25% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Teravainen Aho Necas
Goalie
Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR) faced 44 shots and stopped 41 (.932), +18 against a season average of 26.1; the win.Kochetkov
New line
New look for CAR: Noesen–Kotkaniemi–Jarvis skated 9:27 together at 5v5 as the L2 trio (37.5% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Noesen Kotkaniemi Jarvis

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)CAR attacks right (top on phones) →

CAR
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 124 of 124 attempts · CAR 46 · TOR 78

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

CAR
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

CAR pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 55% of the game, CAR 19%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

CAR

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	CAR
	70	43
	4.06	1.99
	3.76	1.97
	23	10
	7	6
	22	20
	−0.106	+0.107
	55%	19%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Jarnkrok – Marner – Matthews
11:5678% CF
L2Tavares – Nylander – Bunting
11:2150% CF
L3Kerfoot – Lafferty – Acciari
5:3450% CF
D1Brodie – McCabe
14:5672% CF
D2Giordano – Holl
13:0055% CF
D3Schenn – Rielly
8:3740% CF

PP1Tavares – Rielly – Nylander – Marner – Matthews
3:43100% CF
PP2Giordano – Jarnkrok – Lafferty – Bunting – Liljegren
0:46100% CF
PK1FKerfoot – Marner
0:38
PK2FLafferty – Aston-Reese
0:28
PK1DBrodie – Holl
1:17
PK2DGiordano – Liljegren
0:38

Current TOR line combinations →

Carolina Hurricanes

L1Teravainen – Aho – Necas
9:5025% CF
L2Noesen – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis
9:2738% CF
L3Staal – Fast – Martinook
7:3550% CF
L4Stepan – Puljujarvi – Drury
5:5164% CF
D1Burns – Slavin
17:2845% CF
D2Skjei – Pesce
16:2630% CF
D3Gostisbehere – Chatfield
10:4035% CF

PP1Noesen – Teravainen – Gostisbehere – Aho – Necas
2:1057% CF
PP2Burns – Puljujarvi – Kotkaniemi – Drury – Jarvis
0:38100% CF
PK1FStaal – Martinook
2:13
PK2FTeravainen – Aho
1:55
PK1DBurns – Slavin
2:06
PK2DSkjei – Pesce
1:59

Current CAR line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

1:54
CARBrent BurnsPP (Martin Necas, Shayne Gostisbehere)wrist0.10 xG
TOR: Brodie, Holl, KampfCAR: Burns, Teravainen, Gostisbehere, Aho, Necas
TOR 0 – 1 CAR
10:52
CARJordan Staal (Jordan Martinook, Jesper Fast)wrist0.15 xG
TOR: Brodie, Jarnkrok, McCabe, Marner, MatthewsCAR: Staal, Fast, Skjei, Martinook, Pesce
TOR 0 – 2 CAR

2nd period

4:41
TORCalle Jarnkrok (Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner)wrist0.06 xG
TOR: Brodie, Tavares, Jarnkrok, Rielly, MarnerCAR: Stepan, Skjei, Martinook, Pesce, Puljujarvi
TOR 1 – 2 CAR
12:41
TORAuston Matthewswrist0.04 xG
TOR: Schenn, Rielly, Nylander, Bunting, MatthewsCAR: Burns, Teravainen, Slavin, Aho, Necas
TOR 2 – 2 CAR

3rd period

8:13
CARStefan Noesen (Jesperi Kotkaniemi)other0.18 xG
TOR: Giordano, Tavares, Holl, Kerfoot, AcciariCAR: Noesen, Gostisbehere, Chatfield, Kotkaniemi, Jarvis
TOR 2 – 3 CAR
17:02
TORAuston Matthews (Michael Bunting, Morgan Rielly)wrist0.25 xG
TOR: Rielly, Nylander, Bunting, Matthews, LiljegrenCAR: Burns, Martinook, Slavin, Aho, Necas
TOR 3 – 3 CAR
17:34
CARSebastian Aho (Jaccob Slavin, Martin Necas)backhand0.03 xG
TOR: Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Bunting, LiljegrenCAR: Burns, Martinook, Slavin, Aho, Necas
TOR 3 – 4 CAR
18:43
CARTeuvo TeravainenEN (Sebastian Aho, Jesper Fast)wrist0.53 xG
TOR: Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Bunting, Marner, MatthewsCAR: Burns, Fast, Skjei, Teravainen, Aho
TOR 3 – 5 CAR

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Auston Matthews C	L1	2	0	2	0	15	1.44	0	0	0	22:19	—	—	78	83
Mitch Marner R	L1	0	1	1	-1	2	0.31	0	0	0	21:43	—	—	75	74
Calle Jarnkrok C	L1	1	0	1	0	2	0.22	1	0	0	17:00	—	—	73	70
William Nylander R	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.20	0	0	0	22:36	—	—	56	66
John Tavares C	L2	0	0	0	-2	9	1.39	0	0	0	20:40	—	—	48	41
Michael Bunting L	L2	0	1	1	0	4	0.75	2	0	0	18:52	—	—	56	60
Noel Acciari C	L3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.10	4	2	2	16:39	—	—	57	68
Alexander Kerfoot C	L3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	13:24	—	—	60	61
Sam Lafferty C	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.11	1	0	0	9:44	—	—	55	51
TJ Brodie D	D1	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	2	0	19:45	—	—	74	80
Jake McCabe D	D1	0	0	0	-1	3	0.43	1	1	2	16:51	—	—	71	75
Justin Holl D	D2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.08	1	0	0	17:40	—	—	58	47
Mark Giordano D	D2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	0	14:46	—	—	55	45
Morgan Rielly D	D3	0	2	2	+1	0	0.05	0	2	0	21:48	—	—	55	68
Luke Schenn D	D3	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	2	0	0	11:18	—	—	40	52
David Kampf C	—	0	0	0	0	1	0.17	0	0	0	13:18	—	—	55	68
Timothy Liljegren D	—	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	2	0	0	11:39	—	—	54	60
Zachary Aston-Reese L	—	0	0	0	0	2	0.42	1	2	0	8:00	—	—	36	78

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Matt Murray(start)	L	27	23	4	.852	2.52	58:44

Carolina Hurricanes

CAR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Teuvo Teravainen C	L1	1	0	1	0	2	0.58	0	1	0	22:06	—	—	21	29
Sebastian Aho C	L1	1	1	2	0	3	0.28	0	0	0	20:59	—	—	39	28
Martin Necas C	L1	0	2	2	-1	2	0.20	2	2	0	19:20	—	—	38	26
Seth Jarvis R	L2	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	1	0	12:54	—	—	35	45
Jesperi Kotkaniemi C	L2	0	1	1	+1	2	0.27	1	2	0	12:50	—	—	32	39
Stefan Noesen R	L2	1	0	1	+1	3	0.49	0	0	0	12:25	—	—	41	49
Jordan Martinook L	L3	0	1	1	0	2	0.12	2	1	2	18:35	—	—	43	28
Jordan Staal C	L3	1	0	1	+1	3	0.43	3	2	0	17:48	—	—	36	33
Jesper Fast R	L3	0	2	2	+2	0	0.00	2	0	0	15:00	—	—	36	35
Jack Drury C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	1	0	0	8:20	—	—	58	30
Jesse Puljujarvi R	L4	0	0	0	-1	0	0.10	0	0	0	7:57	—	—	50	22
Derek Stepan C	L4	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	7:54	—	—	54	29
Jaccob Slavin D	D1	0	1	1	-1	2	0.03	1	1	0	22:49	—	—	44	32
Brent Burns D	D1	1	0	1	0	3	0.20	0	0	2	22:33	—	—	47	30
Brady Skjei D	D2	0	0	0	+1	3	0.03	0	1	0	22:14	—	—	33	39
Brett Pesce D	D2	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	3	2	21:15	—	—	27	29
Shayne Gostisbehere D	D3	0	1	1	+1	1	0.19	0	1	0	15:06	—	—	42	33
Jalen Chatfield D	D3	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	1	0	13:55	—	—	38	38

CAR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Pyotr Kochetkov(start)	W	44	41	3	.932	5.69	60:00

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.