Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Edmonton OilersJan 28, 2021

FinalThursday, Jan 28, 2021· Rogers Place

away

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

4

@

home

Edmonton OilersEDM

3

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TOR	2	0	2	4		TOR	11	4	12	27
EDM	0	1	2	3		EDM	11	8	10	29

: TOR 48EDM 58
: TOR 3.47EDM 3.54
PP goals: TOR 2EDM 2
Hits: TOR 24EDM 18
Blocks: TOR 14EDM 10
PIM: TOR 14EDM 8
: TOR 47%EDM 53%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Toronto Maple Leafs edge Edmonton Oilers 4–3

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Edmonton Oilers 4–3 at EDM. Leon Draisaitl (EDM) led the scoring with 2G 0A. Leon Draisaitl (EDM) played 27:47, +5:42 up on his 22:05 season average over 55 games.

Points
Leon Draisaitl had two goals (2 points) on 6 shots in 27:47.Draisaitl
Points
Jason Spezza had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 4 shots in 9:53.Spezza
Points
Connor McDavid had 2 assists (2 points) in 25:42.McDavid
Usage
Leon Draisaitl (EDM) played 27:47, +5:42 up on his 22:05 season average over 55 games.Draisaitl
Usage
Alexander Barabanov (TOR) played 5:18, −7:21 down on his 12:39 season average over 21 games.Barabanov
New line
New look for TOR: Spezza–Boyd–Barabanov skated 4:27 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (50% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Spezza Boyd Barabanov
Usage
Travis Boyd (TOR) played 6:13, −4:38 down on his 10:51 season average over 38 games.Boyd
Usage
Adam Larsson (EDM) played 15:38, −4:05 down on his 19:43 season average over 55 games.Larsson

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)EDM attacks right (top on phones) →

EDM
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 106 of 106 attempts · EDM 58 · TOR 48

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

EDM
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

EDM pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 31% of the game, EDM 42%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

EDM

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	EDM
	38	50
	2.21	2.46
	2.18	2.35
	11	16
	2	4
	28	26
	+0.010	−0.010
	31%	42%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Hyman – Marner – Matthews
11:0446% CF
L2Simmonds – Vesey – Kerfoot
8:1057% CF
L3Tavares – Nylander – Mikheyev
7:4636% CF
L4Spezza – Boyd – Barabanov
4:2750% CF
D1Muzzin – Holl
15:5722% CF
D2Brodie – Rielly
11:4836% CF
D3Bogosian – Dermott
7:4264% CF

PP1Spezza – Tavares – Hyman – Rielly – Nylander
2:3583% CF
PP2Simmonds – Rielly – Kerfoot – Marner – Matthews
2:33100% CF
PK1FHyman – Marner
2:38
PK2FVesey – Mikheyev
1:11
PK1DMuzzin – Holl
4:04
PK2DBogosian – Brodie
1:32

Current TOR line combinations →

Edmonton Oilers

L1Draisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun
10:0056% CF
L2Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi
8:3977% CF
L3Neal – Turris – Kassian
7:1862% CF
L4Archibald – Shore – Nygard
2:5040% CF
D1Nurse – Bear
13:5974% CF
D2Larsson – Jones
11:1162% CF
D3Barrie – Koekkoek
11:0238% CF

PP1Barrie – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi
7:11100% CF
PP2Neal – Nugent-Hopkins – Nurse – Draisaitl – McDavid
1:47
PK1FArchibald – Shore
1:59
PK2FTurris – Nugent-Hopkins
1:21
PK1DNurse – Bear
2:18
PK2DLarsson – Koekkoek
2:03

Current EDM line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

9:29
TORJason Spezza (Travis Boyd)backhand0.11 xG
TOR: Spezza, Bogosian, Boyd, Dermott, BarabanovEDM: Barrie, Archibald, Koekkoek, McDavid, Nygard
TOR 1 – 0 EDM
18:22
TORWilliam Nylander (John Tavares, Jason Spezza)wrist0.03 xG
TOR: Muzzin, Brodie, Tavares, Hyman, NylanderEDM: Nugent-Hopkins, Larsson, Koekkoek, Draisaitl
TOR 2 – 0 EDM

2nd period

18:11
EDMLeon DraisaitlPP (Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse)snap0.21 xG
TOR: Muzzin, Holl, MarnerEDM: Nugent-Hopkins, Nurse, Draisaitl, McDavid, Yamamoto
TOR 2 – 1 EDM

3rd period

7:00
EDMLeon DraisaitlPP (Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie)backhand0.16 xG
TOR: Muzzin, Holl, Hyman, MarnerEDM: Barrie, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, McDavid, Yamamoto
TOR 2 – 2 EDM
7:56
TORWayne SimmondsPP (Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly)tip-in0.14 xG
TOR: Simmonds, Rielly, Kerfoot, Marner, MatthewsEDM: Turris, Nugent-Hopkins, Nurse, Bear
TOR 3 – 2 EDM
11:12
EDMZack Kassian (Kyle Turris, Adam Larsson)wrist0.19 xG
TOR: Muzzin, Simmonds, Holl, Vesey, KerfootEDM: Turris, Kassian, Nugent-Hopkins, Larsson, Jones
TOR 3 – 3 EDM
13:37
TORAuston MatthewsPP (TJ Brodie, Alexander Kerfoot)snap0.11 xG
TOR: Simmonds, Brodie, Kerfoot, Marner, MatthewsEDM: Nugent-Hopkins, Nurse, Jones, Yamamoto
TOR 4 – 3 EDM

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mitch Marner R	L1	0	1	1	0	2	0.35	1	1	0	23:48	—	—	50	60
Zach Hyman L	L1	0	0	0	+1	1	0.38	0	0	2	20:23	—	—	45	55
Auston Matthews C	L1	1	0	1	0	4	0.38	1	1	0	20:11	—	—	42	55
Alexander Kerfoot C	L2	0	1	1	-1	3	0.35	0	0	6	16:09	—	—	44	35
Jimmy Vesey L	L2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	0	12:56	—	—	44	40
Wayne Simmonds R	L2	1	0	1	-1	1	0.14	1	0	0	11:13	—	—	57	42
John Tavares C	L3	0	1	1	+1	1	0.20	2	1	0	17:16	—	—	41	48
Ilya Mikheyev R	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.13	4	2	0	16:12	—	—	31	38
William Nylander R	L3	1	0	1	+1	5	0.63	0	0	2	14:28	—	—	44	42
Jason Spezza C	L4	1	1	2	+1	4	0.36	0	1	2	9:53	—	—	39	48
Travis Boyd C	L4	0	1	1	+1	0	0.03	0	0	0	6:13	—	—	29	29
Alexander Barabanov L	L4	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	0	0	5:18	—	—	50	37
Justin Holl D	D1	0	0	0	-1	1	0.05	6	1	2	24:50	—	—	22	32
Jake Muzzin D	D1	0	0	0	0	0	0.08	0	2	0	23:11	—	—	28	33
Morgan Rielly D	D2	0	1	1	0	2	0.32	2	2	0	20:35	—	—	40	43
TJ Brodie D	D2	0	1	1	+1	0	0.01	1	0	0	19:27	—	—	42	39
Zach Bogosian D	D3	0	0	0	+1	2	0.06	3	0	0	15:57	—	—	61	80
Travis Dermott D	D3	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	2	0	10:56	—	—	65	82

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Frederik Andersen(start)	W	29	26	3	.897	3.54	59:02

Edmonton Oilers

EDM skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Leon Draisaitl C	L1	2	0	2	-1	6	1.37	0	0	0	27:47	—	—	50	65
Kailer Yamamoto R	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.19	3	1	0	15:46	—	—	56	62
Dominik Kahun C	L1	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	1	0	0	12:26	—	—	55	55
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	L2	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	27:08	—	—	65	61
Connor McDavid C	L2	0	2	2	-1	0	0.00	1	0	0	25:42	—	—	63	32
Jesse Puljujarvi R	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.24	1	0	0	19:11	—	—	74	59
Kyle Turris C	L3	0	1	1	0	1	0.12	1	0	2	14:06	—	—	63	64
James Neal L	L3	0	0	0	0	6	0.57	2	0	0	13:32	—	—	62	59
Zack Kassian R	L3	1	0	1	+1	4	0.46	0	0	0	11:49	—	—	59	56
Josh Archibald R	L4	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	3	1	2	8:24	—	—	25	6
Joakim Nygard L	L4	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	6:27	—	—	25	6
Devin Shore C	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	6:10	—	—	40	28
Darnell Nurse D	D1	0	1	1	0	2	0.17	1	1	0	21:59	—	—	71	57
Ethan Bear D	D1	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	0	1	2	20:10	—	—	78	59
Adam Larsson D	D2	0	1	1	0	1	0.02	2	3	2	15:38	—	—	56	68
Caleb Jones D	D2	0	0	0	+1	1	0.09	0	0	0	13:35	—	—	64	67
Tyson Barrie D	D3	0	1	1	-1	1	0.14	0	0	0	21:10	—	—	35	31
Slater Koekkoek D	D3	0	0	0	-2	1	0.03	1	3	0	15:15	—	—	33	32

EDM goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Mikko Koskinen(start)	L	27	23	4	.852	3.47	57:42

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.