Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo SabresDec 4, 2018

Final / OTTuesday, Dec 4, 2018· KeyBank Center

away

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

4

@

home

Buffalo SabresBUF

3

Goals	1	2	3	OT	T		Shots	1	2	3	OT	T
TOR	0	2	1	1	4		TOR	7	10	11	2	30
BUF	0	1	2	0	3		BUF	14	12	11	4	41

: TOR 63BUF 60
: TOR 3.39BUF 3.09
PP goals: TOR 0BUF 0
Hits: TOR 11BUF 14
Blocks: TOR 11BUF 22
PIM: TOR 4BUF 4
: TOR 56%BUF 44%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Toronto Maple Leafs edge Buffalo Sabres 4–3 (OT)

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Buffalo Sabres 4–3 in overtime at BUF. Auston Matthews (TOR) led the scoring with 2G 1A. Casey Nelson (BUF) played 2:39, −13:06 down on his 15:45 season average over 37 games.

Points
Auston Matthews had two goals and an assist (3 points) on 5 shots in 23:22.Matthews
Points
Jack Eichel had two goals (2 points) on 8 shots in 21:49.Eichel
Points
Jake Gardiner had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 1 shot in 24:48.Gardiner
Points
Sam Reinhart had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 2 shots in 21:35.Reinhart
Points
Rasmus Ristolainen had 2 assists (2 points) on 3 shots in 27:00.Ristolainen
Usage
Casey Nelson (BUF) played 2:39, −13:06 down on his 15:45 season average over 37 games.Nelson
Goalie
Frederik Andersen (TOR) faced 41 shots and stopped 38 (.927), +8 against a season average of 32.6; the win.Andersen
New line
New look for BUF: Sobotka–Rodrigues–Thompson skated 11:24 together at 5v5 as the L2 trio (52.6% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Sobotka Rodrigues Thompson

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)BUF attacks right (top on phones) →

BUF
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 123 of 123 attempts · BUF 60 · TOR 63

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

BUF
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

BUF pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 33% of the game, BUF 31%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

BUF

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	BUF
	67	61
	3.35	3.02
	3.15	2.97
	13	14
	6	7
	11	14
	+0.048	−0.048
	33%	31%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Tavares – Hyman – Marner
15:0664% CF
L2Marleau – Kapanen – Matthews
14:3045% CF
L3Kadri – Brown – Johnsson
10:4056% CF
L4Ennis – Gauthier – Lindholm
4:4830% CF
D1Gardiner – Zaitsev
16:4438% CF
D2Hainsey – Rielly
16:1365% CF
D3Dermott – Ozhiganov
13:2229% CF

PP1Tavares – Kadri – Rielly – Marner – Matthews
1:11
PP2Marleau – Gardiner – Kadri – Rielly – Brown
0:10
PK1FHyman – Brown
0:59
PK2FKapanen – Lindholm
0:22
PK1DHainsey – Zaitsev
1:24
PK2DRielly – Dermott
0:17

Current TOR line combinations →

Buffalo Sabres

L1Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel
14:0250% CF
L2Sobotka – Rodrigues – Thompson
11:2453% CF
L3Okposo – Sheary – Mittelstadt
9:5859% CF
L4Berglund – Larsson – Girgensons
9:0058% CF
D1Bogosian – Dahlin
14:0245% CF
D2Ristolainen – Pilut
11:3865% CF

PP1Skinner – Ristolainen – Reinhart – Eichel – Thompson
1:26100% CF
PP2Ristolainen – Sheary – Reinhart – Eichel – Dahlin
0:10
PK1FLarsson – Girgensons
1:11
PK2FSobotka – Rodrigues
0:17
PK1DBogosian – Ristolainen
1:11
PK2DBeaulieu – Pilut
0:00

Current BUF line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

2nd period

8:33
TORAuston Matthews (Ron Hainsey)backhand0.05 xG
TOR: Marleau, Hainsey, Rielly, Kapanen, MatthewsBUF: Okposo, Bogosian, Beaulieu, Sheary, Mittelstadt
TOR 1 – 0 BUF
14:01
BUFSam Reinhart (Nathan Beaulieu, Rasmus Ristolainen)tip-in0.09 xG
TOR: Hainsey, Ennis, Gauthier, Zaitsev, LindholmBUF: Skinner, Beaulieu, Ristolainen, Reinhart, Eichel
TOR 1 – 1 BUF
19:50
TORJake Gardiner (John Tavares, Mitch Marner)wrist0.16 xG
TOR: Gardiner, Tavares, Hyman, Rielly, MarnerBUF: Berglund, Bogosian, Larsson, Girgensons, Pilut
TOR 2 – 1 BUF

3rd period

2:39
BUFJack Eichel (Rasmus Ristolainen, Jeff Skinner)slap0.05 xG
TOR: Gardiner, Hyman, Gauthier, Zaitsev, LindholmBUF: Skinner, Ristolainen, Reinhart, Eichel, Dahlin
TOR 2 – 2 BUF
12:57
BUFJack Eichel (Sam Reinhart)wrist0.25 xG
TOR: Gardiner, Kadri, Brown, Johnsson, ZaitsevBUF: Skinner, Beaulieu, Reinhart, Eichel, Pilut
TOR 2 – 3 BUF
14:47
TORPatrick Marleau (Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews)wrist0.06 xG
TOR: Marleau, Gardiner, Rielly, Kapanen, MatthewsBUF: Berglund, Larsson, Beaulieu, Girgensons, Ristolainen
TOR 3 – 3 BUF

OT period

4:57
TORAuston Matthews (Kasperi Kapanen, Jake Gardiner)wrist0.15 xG
TOR: Gardiner, Kapanen, MatthewsBUF: Sobotka, Rodrigues, Dahlin
TOR 4 – 3 BUF

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mitch Marner R	L1	0	1	1	+1	2	0.30	0	0	0	22:20	—	—	58	60
John Tavares C	L1	0	1	1	+1	5	0.47	1	0	0	22:00	—	—	60	70
Zach Hyman L	L1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	18:23	—	—	59	55
Auston Matthews C	L2	2	1	3	+3	5	0.87	0	2	0	23:22	—	—	55	50
Patrick Marleau C	L2	1	0	1	+2	2	0.16	1	0	2	20:20	—	—	53	44
Kasperi Kapanen R	L2	0	1	1	+3	1	0.19	1	0	0	19:07	—	—	50	42
Nazem Kadri C	L3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.05	0	0	0	16:57	—	—	63	51
Connor Brown R	L3	0	0	0	-1	2	0.07	0	0	2	14:11	—	—	53	32
Andreas Johnsson L	L3	0	0	0	-1	2	0.17	0	0	0	12:38	—	—	53	29
Par Lindholm C	L4	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	0	0	6:52	—	—	23	60
Tyler Ennis R	L4	0	0	0	-1	1	0.24	0	0	0	5:49	—	—	27	64
Frederik Gauthier C	L4	0	0	0	-2	1	0.47	0	0	0	5:23	—	—	27	67
Jake Gardiner D	D1	1	1	2	+1	1	0.17	0	1	0	24:48	—	—	57	59
Nikita Zaitsev D	D1	0	0	0	-3	1	0.02	1	2	0	20:22	—	—	38	47
Morgan Rielly D	D2	0	1	1	+3	2	0.14	2	1	0	25:50	—	—	67	59
Ron Hainsey D	D2	0	1	1	0	1	0.01	1	0	0	20:31	—	—	65	47
Travis Dermott D	D3	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	2	1	0	18:10	—	—	35	48
Igor Ozhiganov D	D3	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	4	0	13:48	—	—	32	50

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Frederik Andersen(start)	W	41	38	3	.927	3.09	64:57

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Jack Eichel C	L1	2	0	2	+3	8	0.84	0	2	0	21:49	—	—	50	43
Sam Reinhart C	L1	1	1	2	+3	2	0.10	1	0	0	21:35	—	—	45	36
Jeff Skinner L	L1	0	1	1	+3	4	0.13	0	1	0	18:32	—	—	48	39
Evan Rodrigues C	L2	0	0	0	-1	5	0.20	0	1	0	16:57	—	—	40	26
Vladimir Sobotka C	L2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.06	1	0	0	16:55	—	—	46	42
Tage Thompson C	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	0	4	15:10	—	—	48	27
Conor Sheary L	L3	0	0	0	-1	4	0.39	0	2	0	15:33	—	—	46	78
Casey Mittelstadt C	L3	0	0	0	-1	2	0.13	0	0	0	12:28	—	—	43	57
Kyle Okposo R	L3	0	0	0	-1	2	0.30	0	0	0	12:07	—	—	50	60
Zemgus Girgensons C	L4	0	0	0	-2	0	0.11	3	1	0	13:27	—	—	50	55
Johan Larsson L	L4	0	0	0	-2	2	0.27	0	1	0	12:20	—	—	57	57
Patrik Berglund C	L4	0	0	0	-2	1	0.10	0	0	0	10:27	—	—	50	48
Rasmus Dahlin D	D1	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	0	4	0	29:15	—	—	38	31
Zach Bogosian D	D1	0	0	0	-2	3	0.06	3	4	0	26:34	—	—	42	35
Rasmus Ristolainen D	D2	0	2	2	+1	3	0.26	3	3	0	27:00	—	—	54	62
Lawrence Pilut D	D2	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	1	0	22:49	—	—	61	73
Nathan Beaulieu D	—	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	1	2	0	15:14	—	—	49	50
Casey Nelson D	—	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	2:39	—	—	67	96

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Linus Ullmark(start)	O	30	26	4	.867	3.39	64:57

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.