Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo SabresMar 20, 2019

FinalWednesday, Mar 20, 2019· KeyBank Center

away

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

4

@

home

Buffalo SabresBUF

2

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	2	2	4		TOR	19	19	8	46
BUF	1	0	1	2		BUF	7	8	9	24

: TOR 77BUF 47
: TOR 5.51BUF 2.57
PP goals: TOR 0BUF 1
Hits: TOR 7BUF 26
Blocks: TOR 10BUF 14
PIM: TOR 4BUF 6
: TOR 55%BUF 45%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Buffalo Sabres 4–2

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Buffalo Sabres 4–2 at BUF. Auston Matthews (TOR) led the scoring with 1G 1A. BUF's first power-play unit (Skinner, Reinhart, Eichel, Mittelstadt and Dahlin) scored 1 power-play goal on 4 attempts in 2:52 together.

Points
Auston Matthews had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 7 shots in 19:39.Matthews
Points
John Tavares had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 6 shots in 19:57.Tavares
PP1
BUF's first power-play unit (Skinner, Reinhart, Eichel, Mittelstadt and Dahlin) scored 1 power-play goal on 4 attempts in 2:52 together.Skinner Reinhart Eichel Mittelstadt Dahlin
Goalie
Carter Hutton (BUF) faced 45 shots and stopped 42 (.933), +14 against a season average of 30.8; the loss.Hutton
New line
New look for BUF: Sobotka–Nylander–Mittelstadt skated 4:21 together at 5v5 as the L3 trio (75% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Sobotka Nylander Mittelstadt
Luck
TOR scored 4 goals on 5.51 expected goals (77 attempts), well short of its chances.
Usage
Brandon Montour (BUF) played 16:44, −5:47 down on his 22:31 season average over 81 games.Montour
Usage
Connor Brown (TOR) played 7:47, −6:05 down on his 13:52 season average over 81 games.Brown

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)BUF attacks right (top on phones) →

BUF
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 124 of 124 attempts · BUF 47 · TOR 77

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

BUF
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

BUF pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 56% of the game, BUF 30%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

BUF

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	BUF
	77	46
	5.53	2.33
	5.33	2.26
	18	8
	4	5
	7	10
	+0.063	−0.063
	56%	30%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Tavares – Hyman – Marner
14:0374% CF
L2Marleau – Kadri – Kapanen
11:0059% CF
L3Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews
10:2773% CF
L4Brown – Petan – Moore
3:5750% CF
D1Muzzin – Zaitsev
14:4959% CF
D2Hainsey – Holl
6:3669% CF
D3Rielly – Ozhiganov
5:0229% CF

PP1Tavares – Kadri – Rielly – Marner – Matthews
3:08100% CF
PP2Marleau – Muzzin – Johnsson – Petan – Nylander
2:280% CF
PK1FBrown – Marner
1:28
PK2FMarleau – Kapanen
0:54
PK1DHainsey – Zaitsev
2:42
PK2DMuzzin – Rielly
0:28

Current TOR line combinations →

Buffalo Sabres

L1Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons
11:1847% CF
L2Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel
8:4132% CF
L3Sobotka – Nylander – Mittelstadt
4:2175% CF
L4Sheary – Rodrigues – Thompson
2:410% CF
D1Bogosian – Ristolainen
13:2333% CF
D2Scandella – Nelson
10:0733% CF
D3Montour – Dahlin
7:1533% CF

PP1Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel – Mittelstadt – Dahlin
2:5267% CF
PP2Okposo – Ristolainen – Sheary – Montour – Rodrigues
0:480% CF
PK1FSobotka – Rodrigues
2:18
PK2FLarsson – Girgensons
0:47
PK1DBogosian – Ristolainen
3:49
PK2DScandella – Nelson
0:49

Current BUF line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

15:04
BUFCasey MittelstadtPP (Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Eichel)wrist0.12 xG
TOR: Muzzin, Nylander, Kapanen, ZaitsevBUF: Skinner, Reinhart, Eichel, Mittelstadt, Dahlin
TOR 0 – 1 BUF

2nd period

1:43
TORAuston Matthews (Andreas Johnsson, Jake Muzzin)deflected0.13 xG
TOR: Muzzin, Rielly, Johnsson, Nylander, MatthewsBUF: Scandella, Reinhart, Montour, Eichel, Mittelstadt
TOR 1 – 1 BUF
18:32
TORJohn Tavares (William Nylander, Auston Matthews)backhand0.03 xG
TOR: Hainsey, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, MatthewsBUF: Scandella, Skinner, Ristolainen, Reinhart, Eichel
TOR 2 – 1 BUF

3rd period

0:22
TORMitch Marner (John Tavares)wrist0.17 xG
TOR: Muzzin, Tavares, Hyman, Marner, ZaitsevBUF: Bogosian, Ristolainen, Sheary, Rodrigues, Thompson
TOR 3 – 1 BUF
5:37
BUFAlex Nylander (Vladimir Sobotka, Zach Bogosian)slap0.16 xG
TOR: Tavares, Hyman, Rielly, Marner, OzhiganovBUF: Sobotka, Bogosian, Ristolainen, Nylander, Mittelstadt
TOR 3 – 2 BUF
19:27
TORZach HymanENbackhand0.25 xG
TOR: Hainsey, Tavares, Hyman, Marner, ZaitsevBUF: Skinner, Ristolainen, Sheary, Reinhart, Eichel, Dahlin
TOR 4 – 2 BUF

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mitch Marner R	L1	1	0	1	+1	2	0.46	1	0	0	22:30	—	—	71	86
John Tavares C	L1	1	1	2	+2	6	1.22	0	0	0	19:57	—	—	66	79
Zach Hyman L	L1	1	0	1	+1	2	0.56	0	0	4	17:12	—	—	70	78
Patrick Marleau C	L2	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	1	1	0	17:18	—	—	52	36
Nazem Kadri C	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	1	0	0	15:56	—	—	62	61
Kasperi Kapanen R	L2	0	0	0	0	7	1.08	0	0	0	15:56	—	—	58	60
Auston Matthews C	L3	1	1	2	+2	7	0.96	0	1	0	19:39	—	—	67	78
William Nylander R	L3	0	1	1	+2	3	0.23	0	0	0	17:23	—	—	64	65
Andreas Johnsson L	L3	0	1	1	+1	3	0.26	2	1	0	15:01	—	—	69	83
Nic Petan C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.15	0	0	0	7:47	—	—	55	76
Connor Brown R	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	0	0	7:47	—	—	55	76
Trevor Moore L	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	0	0	5:41	—	—	46	37
Jake Muzzin D	D1	0	1	1	+2	1	0.05	1	1	0	24:13	—	—	62	81
Nikita Zaitsev D	D1	0	0	0	+2	2	0.06	0	2	0	23:41	—	—	63	88
Ron Hainsey D	D2	0	0	0	+2	4	0.10	0	2	0	24:21	—	—	65	62
Justin Holl D	D2	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	0	0	7:43	—	—	69	22
Morgan Rielly D	D3	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	0	2	0	25:25	—	—	62	73
Igor Ozhiganov D	D3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.13	0	0	0	8:42	—	—	50	51

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Garret Sparks(start)	W	24	22	2	.917	2.57	60:00

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Johan Larsson L	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.15	2	2	2	14:25	—	—	50	72
Zemgus Girgensons C	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.66	4	0	2	14:02	—	—	42	42
Kyle Okposo R	L1	0	0	0	0	2	0.24	0	1	0	13:15	—	—	50	72
Jack Eichel C	L2	0	1	1	-3	3	0.21	2	0	2	20:27	—	—	37	22
Jeff Skinner L	L2	0	0	0	-2	1	0.03	1	0	0	17:47	—	—	33	17
Sam Reinhart C	L2	0	0	0	-3	2	0.28	1	0	0	17:31	—	—	37	18
Casey Mittelstadt C	L3	1	0	1	0	3	0.31	1	1	0	12:16	—	—	47	50
Vladimir Sobotka C	L3	0	1	1	+1	1	0.07	3	0	0	12:15	—	—	50	42
Alex Nylander L	L3	1	0	1	+1	1	0.16	0	0	0	10:50	—	—	30	18
Evan Rodrigues C	L4	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	0	0	0	17:33	—	—	20	3
Conor Sheary L	L4	0	0	0	-2	0	0.06	1	1	0	15:42	—	—	30	12
Tage Thompson C	L4	0	0	0	-1	2	0.16	3	0	0	12:08	—	—	36	32
Rasmus Ristolainen D	D1	0	0	0	-2	0	0.02	1	2	0	22:42	—	—	32	29
Zach Bogosian D	D1	0	1	1	0	1	0.07	2	2	0	22:31	—	—	36	46
Marco Scandella D	D2	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	1	1	0	19:11	—	—	33	10
Casey Nelson D	D2	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	1	0	0	17:32	—	—	41	9
Rasmus Dahlin D	D3	0	1	1	-1	1	0.03	3	1	0	18:06	—	—	36	58
Brandon Montour D	D3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.02	0	3	0	16:44	—	—	43	32

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Carter Hutton(start)	L	45	42	3	.933	5.26	59:01

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.