Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo SabresFeb 16, 2020

FinalSunday, Feb 16, 2020· KeyBank Center

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Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	1	1	2		TOR	6	6	10	22
BUF	0	2	3	5		BUF	16	12	8	36

: TOR 44BUF 68
: TOR 1.94BUF 4.39
PP goals: TOR 0BUF 1
Hits: TOR 13BUF 19
Blocks: TOR 13BUF 13
PIM: TOR 6BUF 2
: TOR 40%BUF 60%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Buffalo Sabres beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5–2

Buffalo Sabres beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5–2 at home. Johan Larsson (BUF) led the scoring with 1G 1A. BUF's first power-play unit (Ristolainen, Reinhart, Olofsson, Eichel and Dahlin) scored 1 power-play goal on 8 attempts in 4:21 together.

Points
Johan Larsson had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 2 shots in 14:35.Larsson
Points
Colin Miller had 2 assists (2 points) in 16:18.Miller
Points
Rasmus Ristolainen had 2 assists (2 points) in 23:00.Ristolainen
PP1
BUF's first power-play unit (Ristolainen, Reinhart, Olofsson, Eichel and Dahlin) scored 1 power-play goal on 8 attempts in 4:21 together.Ristolainen Reinhart Olofsson Eichel Dahlin
Goalie
Frederik Andersen (TOR) faced 36 shots and stopped 31 (.861), +6 against a season average of 30.3; the loss.Andersen
New line
New look for BUF: Johansson–Vesey–Lazar skated 11:06 together at 5v5 as the L3 trio (71.4% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Johansson Vesey Lazar
Usage
Justin Holl (TOR) played 25:20, +6:56 up on his 18:24 season average over 67 games.Holl
Usage
Travis Dermott (TOR) played 23:17, +6:05 up on his 17:12 season average over 55 games.Dermott

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)BUF attacks right (top on phones) →

BUF
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 112 of 112 attempts · BUF 68 · TOR 44

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

BUF
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

BUF pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 23% of the game, BUF 52%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

BUF

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	BUF
	47	71
	2.25	4.51
	2.16	4.30
	16	24
	1	10
	8	17
	−0.111	+0.111
	23%	52%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Hyman – Marner – Matthews
17:1545% CF
L2Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander
10:0550% CF
L3Spezza – Marchment – Korshkov
3:5338% CF
L4Clifford – Kapanen – Engvall
2:5810% CF
D1Muzzin – Holl
14:2630% CF
D2Barrie – Dermott
13:1448% CF
D3Liljegren – Sandin
4:0157% CF

PP1Tavares – Barrie – Nylander – Marner – Matthews
1:10100% CF
PP2Spezza – Hyman – Kerfoot – Kapanen – Sandin
0:50100% CF
PK1FEngvall – Marner
1:41
PK2FHyman – Kapanen
0:45
PK1DHoll – Dermott
2:54

Current TOR line combinations →

Buffalo Sabres

L1Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel
14:1656% CF
L2Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons
12:4653% CF
L3Johansson – Vesey – Lazar
11:0671% CF
L4Skinner – Sheary – Rodrigues
8:1250% CF
D1McCabe – Jokiharju
17:4253% CF
D2Ristolainen – Montour
17:3069% CF
D3Miller – Dahlin
11:4768% CF

PP1Ristolainen – Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel – Dahlin
4:2189% CF
PP2Johansson – Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel – Dahlin
0:33100% CF
PK1FGirgensons – Lazar
1:10
PK2FLarsson – Rodrigues
0:36
PK1DMcCabe – Montour
2:00

Current BUF line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

2nd period

1:32
BUFJohan Larsson (Colin Miller, Rasmus Dahlin)wrist0.03 xG
TOR: Tavares, Barrie, Nylander, Dermott, MarchmentBUF: Okposo, Johansson, Larsson, Miller, Dahlin
TOR 0 – 1 BUF
9:42
BUFConor Sheary (Colin Miller, Evan Rodrigues)tip-in0.07 xG
TOR: Kerfoot, Kapanen, Engvall, Dermott, LiljegrenBUF: Miller, Sheary, Olofsson, Rodrigues, Dahlin
TOR 0 – 2 BUF
11:29
TOREgor Korshkov (Jason Spezza, Kyle Clifford)wrist0.04 xG
TOR: Spezza, Clifford, Barrie, Dermott, KorshkovBUF: Okposo, Larsson, Girgensons, McCabe, Jokiharju
TOR 1 – 2 BUF

3rd period

2:11
TORZach Hyman (Jake Muzzin, Mitch Marner)tip-in0.07 xG
TOR: Muzzin, Hyman, Marner, Matthews, LiljegrenBUF: Okposo, Johansson, Larsson, Miller, Montour
TOR 2 – 2 BUF
6:06
BUFJack EichelPP (Victor Olofsson, Rasmus Ristolainen)wrist0.10 xG
TOR: Holl, Hyman, Dermott, MarnerBUF: Ristolainen, Reinhart, Olofsson, Eichel, Dahlin
TOR 2 – 3 BUF
6:55
BUFKyle Okposo (Johan Larsson)wrist0.20 xG
TOR: Tavares, Barrie, Hyman, Kerfoot, SandinBUF: Okposo, Skinner, Ristolainen, Montour, Rodrigues
TOR 2 – 4 BUF
7:37
BUFJimmy Vesey (Rasmus Ristolainen)wrist0.46 xG
TOR: Muzzin, Hyman, Marner, Matthews, LiljegrenBUF: Johansson, Vesey, Ristolainen, Lazar, Montour
TOR 2 – 5 BUF

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mitch Marner R	L1	0	1	1	0	1	0.24	3	0	0	22:14	—	—	47	44
Zach Hyman L	L1	1	0	1	-1	6	0.83	0	1	0	20:44	—	—	49	45
Auston Matthews C	L1	0	0	0	0	3	0.16	0	1	0	19:42	—	—	49	47
John Tavares C	L2	0	0	0	-2	2	0.08	0	0	0	18:04	—	—	31	15
William Nylander R	L2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	0	0	0	16:50	—	—	39	42
Alexander Kerfoot C	L2	0	0	0	-2	2	0.11	1	0	0	14:57	—	—	44	34
Mason Marchment L	L3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.06	1	0	0	12:14	—	—	20	9
Egor Korshkov R	L3	1	0	1	+1	1	0.04	1	0	0	10:08	—	—	53	33
Jason Spezza C	L3	0	1	1	+1	2	0.19	0	0	0	10:01	—	—	53	34
Pierre Engvall L	L4	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	12:02	—	—	12	2
Kasperi Kapanen R	L4	0	0	0	-1	1	0.11	0	0	0	11:41	—	—	21	15
Kyle Clifford L	L4	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	2	0	0	8:19	—	—	35	21
Justin Holl D	D1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	0	25:20	—	—	36	29
Jake Muzzin D	D1	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	2	3	4	21:14	—	—	27	19
Tyson Barrie D	D2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.08	1	2	0	24:13	—	—	44	37
Travis Dermott D	D2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	1	2	2	23:17	—	—	50	44
Timothy Liljegren D	D3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	0	12:07	—	—	44	41
Rasmus Sandin D	D3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	0	11:59	—	—	38	48

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Frederik Andersen(start)	L	36	31	5	.861	4.39	60:00

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Jack Eichel C	L1	1	0	1	0	5	0.61	2	0	0	22:36	—	—	65	63
Sam Reinhart C	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	0	1	0	21:51	—	—	65	63
Victor Olofsson L	L1	0	1	1	+1	4	0.48	0	0	0	19:17	—	—	58	48
Zemgus Girgensons C	L2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.20	0	1	0	14:39	—	—	61	61
Johan Larsson L	L2	1	1	2	-1	2	0.12	1	0	0	14:35	—	—	59	56
Kyle Okposo R	L2	1	0	1	0	1	0.40	3	0	0	13:36	—	—	62	58
Marcus Johansson L	L3	0	0	0	+1	4	0.25	0	1	0	15:12	—	—	66	72
Curtis Lazar C	L3	0	0	0	+1	3	0.49	2	1	0	12:59	—	—	68	78
Jimmy Vesey L	L3	1	0	1	+1	2	0.47	1	0	0	12:32	—	—	60	69
Jeff Skinner L	L4	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	11:25	—	—	50	82
Conor Sheary L	L4	1	0	1	+1	5	0.80	0	1	0	10:15	—	—	50	81
Evan Rodrigues C	L4	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	0	0	0	9:48	—	—	47	69
Jake McCabe D	D1	0	0	0	-1	5	0.17	0	3	0	20:15	—	—	53	48
Henri Jokiharju D	D1	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	0	19:52	—	—	53	48
Rasmus Ristolainen D	D2	0	2	2	+2	0	0.09	5	1	2	23:00	—	—	67	79
Brandon Montour D	D2	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	1	3	0	22:03	—	—	64	80
Rasmus Dahlin D	D3	0	1	1	+2	2	0.10	1	0	0	17:47	—	—	65	73
Colin Miller D	D3	0	2	2	+1	0	0.03	2	0	0	16:18	—	—	62	73

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Carter Hutton(start)	W	22	20	2	.909	1.94	60:00

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.