Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo SabresFeb 21, 2023

FinalTuesday, Feb 21, 2023· KeyBank Center

away

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

6

@

home

Buffalo SabresBUF

3

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TOR	4	1	1	6		TOR	15	8	6	29
BUF	0	0	3	3		BUF	8	11	13	32

: TOR 41BUF 56
: TOR 4.82BUF 2.43
PP goals: TOR 1BUF 0
Hits: TOR 16BUF 17
Blocks: TOR 18BUF 7
PIM: TOR 4BUF 6
: TOR 59%BUF 41%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Buffalo Sabres 6–3

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Buffalo Sabres 6–3 at BUF. Mitch Marner (TOR) led the scoring with 0G 5A. TOR's first power-play unit (Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner and Matthews) scored 1 power-play goal on 6 attempts in 1:31 together.

Points
Ryan O'Reilly had a hat trick and an assist (4 points) on 5 shots in 16:38.O'Reilly
Points
Mitch Marner had 5 assists (5 points) in 16:48.Marner
Points
John Tavares had a goal and 3 assists (4 points) on 3 shots in 15:14.Tavares
Points
Alex Tuch had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 2 shots in 18:28.Tuch
Points
William Nylander had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 7 shots in 15:53.Nylander
PP1
TOR's first power-play unit (Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner and Matthews) scored 1 power-play goal on 6 attempts in 1:31 together.Tavares Rielly Nylander Marner Matthews
Usage
Mitch Marner (TOR) played 16:48, −4:32 down on his 21:20 season average over 79 games.Marner
Usage
Auston Matthews (TOR) played 15:54, −4:26 down on his 20:20 season average over 73 games.Matthews

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)BUF attacks right (top on phones) →

BUF
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 97 of 97 attempts · BUF 56 · TOR 41

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

BUF
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

BUF pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 39% of the game, BUF 43%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

BUF

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	BUF
	41	65
	3.75	2.84
	3.42	2.75
	14	14
	8	5
	26	8
	+0.097	−0.097
	39%	43%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1O'Reilly – Tavares – Marner
11:3138% CF
L2Nylander – Bunting – Matthews
11:2933% CF
L3Jarnkrok – Engvall – Kampf
11:1141% CF
L4Kerfoot – Acciari – Aston-Reese
9:5129% CF
D1Holl – Rielly
14:4132% CF
D2Giordano – Liljegren
13:4039% CF
D3Brodie – Timmins
12:1162% CF

PP1Tavares – Rielly – Nylander – Marner – Matthews
1:31100% CF
PP2O'Reilly – Jarnkrok – Rielly – Engvall – Liljegren
0:26
PK1FMarner – Kampf
0:44
PK2FKerfoot – Acciari
0:37
PK1DBrodie – Holl
1:19
PK2DGiordano – Liljegren
0:37

Current TOR line combinations →

Buffalo Sabres

L1Skinner – Tuch – Thompson
12:0271% CF
L2Okposo – Girgensons – Jost
8:2846% CF
L3Olofsson – Cozens – Peterka
8:1265% CF
L4Mittelstadt – Krebs – Quinn
8:0020% CF
D1Jokiharju – Dahlin
19:0369% CF
D2Samuelsson – Power
12:2364% CF
D3Bryson – Lyubushkin
8:2950% CF

PP1Skinner – Tuch – Thompson – Dahlin – Cozens
0:48100% CF
PP2Okposo – Olofsson – Mittelstadt – Krebs – Power
0:35
PK1FOkposo – Krebs
0:45
PK2FGirgensons – Jost
0:26
PK1DLyubushkin – Power
0:45
PK2DSamuelsson – Dahlin
0:26

Current BUF line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

3:51
TORRyan O'Reilly (Mitch Marner, John Tavares)snap0.15 xG
TOR: Brodie, O'Reilly, Tavares, Marner, TimminsBUF: Skinner, Tuch, Jost, Samuelsson, Power
TOR 1 – 0 BUF
4:28
TORRyan O'Reilly (Mitch Marner, John Tavares)backhand0.17 xG
TOR: Giordano, O'Reilly, Tavares, Marner, LiljegrenBUF: Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Jokiharju, Dahlin
TOR 2 – 0 BUF
7:14
TORJohn Tavares (Ryan O'Reilly, Mitch Marner)wrist0.16 xG
TOR: O'Reilly, Tavares, Holl, Rielly, MarnerBUF: Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Bryson, Lyubushkin
TOR 3 – 0 BUF
12:09
TORMichael Bunting (Morgan Rielly, William Nylander)wrist0.10 xG
TOR: Holl, Rielly, Nylander, Bunting, MatthewsBUF: Mittelstadt, Jokiharju, Samuelsson, Krebs, Quinn
TOR 4 – 0 BUF

2nd period

14:36
TORWilliam NylanderPP (John Tavares, Mitch Marner)wrist0.13 xG
TOR: Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, MatthewsBUF: Tuch, Samuelsson, Lyubushkin, Krebs
TOR 5 – 0 BUF

3rd period

5:12
BUFJack Quinn (Casey Mittelstadt)wrist0.06 xG
TOR: Brodie, Engvall, Aston-Reese, Timmins, KampfBUF: Mittelstadt, Bryson, Lyubushkin, Cozens, Quinn
TOR 5 – 1 BUF
8:01
BUFAlex Tuch (Tage Thompson, Henri Jokiharju)wrist0.04 xG
TOR: Holl, Rielly, Nylander, Bunting, MatthewsBUF: Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Jokiharju, Dahlin
TOR 5 – 2 BUF
16:29
BUFJeff Skinner (Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch)wrist0.03 xG
TOR: Brodie, O'Reilly, Holl, Engvall, AcciariBUF: Skinner, Mittelstadt, Dahlin, Cozens, Power
TOR 5 – 3 BUF
18:50
TORRyan O'ReillyEN (Mitch Marner)backhand0.82 xG
TOR: Brodie, O'Reilly, Tavares, Holl, MarnerBUF: Okposo, Skinner, Jost, Dahlin, Krebs, Power
TOR 6 – 3 BUF

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mitch Marner R	L1	0	5	5	+4	0	0.00	0	1	0	16:48	—	—	36	61
Ryan O'Reilly C	L1	3	1	4	+3	5	1.38	0	0	0	16:38	—	—	44	72
John Tavares C	L1	1	3	4	+4	3	0.64	0	0	0	15:14	—	—	41	66
Auston Matthews C	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.33	1	5	0	15:54	—	—	33	55
William Nylander R	L2	1	1	2	0	7	0.86	0	1	0	15:53	—	—	36	55
Michael Bunting L	L2	1	0	1	0	1	0.12	0	0	2	13:51	—	—	36	55
Pierre Engvall L	L3	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	0	0	15:53	—	—	46	48
David Kampf C	L3	0	0	0	-1	3	0.35	1	0	0	15:36	—	—	40	45
Calle Jarnkrok C	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	1	0	0	14:48	—	—	39	33
Alexander Kerfoot C	L4	0	0	0	0	3	0.76	1	2	0	14:20	—	—	44	72
Noel Acciari C	L4	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	7	0	0	13:19	—	—	42	74
Zachary Aston-Reese L	L4	0	0	0	-1	1	0.15	1	0	0	10:44	—	—	27	51
Morgan Rielly D	D1	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	21:34	—	—	31	37
Justin Holl D	D1	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	3	3	0	21:10	—	—	27	50
Timothy Liljegren D	D2	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	2	0	20:32	—	—	33	48
Mark Giordano D	D2	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	0	2	0	19:53	—	—	33	62
TJ Brodie D	D3	0	0	0	0	3	0.17	0	2	0	21:02	—	—	57	71
Conor Timmins D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	2	14:51	—	—	57	73

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Ilya Samsonov(start)	W	32	29	3	.906	2.43	60:00

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Alex Tuch R	L1	1	1	2	-2	2	0.41	3	1	0	18:28	—	—	64	47
Tage Thompson C	L1	0	1	1	-1	3	0.24	1	0	0	18:01	—	—	68	51
Jeff Skinner L	L1	1	0	1	-2	3	0.06	0	0	0	16:27	—	—	69	51
Kyle Okposo R	L2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.18	3	0	0	15:10	—	—	72	52
Tyson Jost C	L2	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	1	0	2	14:40	—	—	58	33
Zemgus Girgensons C	L2	0	0	0	0	3	0.13	1	0	0	13:55	—	—	60	29
Dylan Cozens C	L3	0	0	0	+2	3	0.32	0	0	0	14:32	—	—	64	46
Victor Olofsson L	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	0	0	0	13:45	—	—	62	52
JJ Peterka R	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.18	0	0	0	11:44	—	—	67	54
Casey Mittelstadt C	L4	0	1	1	+1	1	0.04	0	0	0	16:03	—	—	44	26
Peyton Krebs C	L4	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	1	1	0	15:08	—	—	53	36
Jack Quinn R	L4	1	0	1	0	4	0.16	3	0	0	13:29	—	—	33	21
Rasmus Dahlin D	D1	0	1	1	0	3	0.10	1	3	0	26:04	—	—	67	56
Henri Jokiharju D	D1	0	1	1	-1	3	0.27	1	0	2	23:22	—	—	68	60
Owen Power D	D2	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	0	0	0	23:51	—	—	57	29
Mattias Samuelsson D	D2	0	0	0	-2	1	0.10	1	0	0	17:41	—	—	66	47
Ilya Lyubushkin D	D3	0	0	0	0	1	0.13	1	1	0	14:32	—	—	56	41
Jacob Bryson D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	2	12:05	—	—	42	23

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Craig Anderson	—	18	17	1	.944	2.58	46:29
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen(start)	L	10	6	4	.600	1.41	12:09

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.