Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa SenatorsJan 15, 2021

FinalFriday, Jan 15, 2021· Canadian Tire Centre

away

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

3

@

home

Ottawa SenatorsOTT

5

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TOR	1	1	1	3		TOR	8	11	4	23
OTT	1	3	1	5		OTT	6	9	9	24

: TOR 52OTT 46
: TOR 2.73OTT 3.20
PP goals: TOR 2OTT 1
Hits: TOR 12OTT 33
Blocks: TOR 10OTT 19
PIM: TOR 20OTT 12
: TOR 55%OTT 45%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Ottawa Senators beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5–3

Ottawa Senators beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5–3 at home. Brady Tkachuk (OTT) led the scoring with 1G 2A. OTT's first power-play unit (Dadonov, Chabot, Norris, Batherson and Tkachuk) scored 1 power-play goal on 7 attempts in 5:36 together.

Points
Brady Tkachuk had a goal and 2 assists (3 points) on 5 shots in 16:53.Tkachuk
Points
John Tavares had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 4 shots in 15:57.Tavares
Points
Drake Batherson had 2 assists (2 points) on 5 shots in 17:08.Batherson
Points
Josh Norris had 2 assists (2 points) in 16:07.Norris
Points
Nikita Zaitsev had 2 assists (2 points) in 21:35.Zaitsev
PP1
OTT's first power-play unit (Dadonov, Chabot, Norris, Batherson and Tkachuk) scored 1 power-play goal on 7 attempts in 5:36 together.Dadonov Chabot Norris Batherson Tkachuk
Usage
Alexander Barabanov (TOR) played 4:19, −8:23 down on his 12:42 season average over 21 games.Barabanov
Luck
OTT scored 5 goals on 3.20 expected goals (46 attempts), finishing well above its chances.

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)OTT attacks right (top on phones) →

OTT
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 98 of 98 attempts · OTT 46 · TOR 52

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

OTT
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

OTT pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 38% of the game, OTT 23%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

OTT

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	OTT
	42	44
	1.94	1.69
	1.92	1.62
	6	11
	1	2
	11	13
	−0.003	+0.003
	38%	23%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Thornton – Marner – Matthews
11:3368% CF
L2Hyman – Kerfoot – Mikheyev
8:0062% CF
L3Tavares – Vesey – Nylander
7:0444% CF
L4Spezza – Simmonds – Barabanov
2:5929% CF
D1Brodie – Rielly
13:2638% CF
D2Muzzin – Holl
12:0563% CF
D3Bogosian – Dermott
7:0655% CF

PP1Thornton – Simmonds – Rielly – Marner – Matthews
3:38100% CF
PP2Spezza – Brodie – Tavares – Hyman – Nylander
2:37100% CF
PK1FKerfoot – Mikheyev
1:58
PK2FHyman – Vesey
1:22
PK1DMuzzin – Holl
4:35
PK2DBogosian – Brodie
2:12

Current TOR line combinations →

Ottawa Senators

L1Tierney – Brown – Paul
10:4060% CF
L2Dadonov – Stepan – Stützle
6:2958% CF
L3Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk
6:1733% CF
L4Anisimov – Watson – Paquette
5:0933% CF
D1Chabot – Zaitsev
11:5456% CF
D2Gudbranson – Wolanin
9:1743% CF
D3Coburn – Brown
9:1250% CF

PP1Dadonov – Chabot – Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk
5:3678% CF
PP2Anisimov – Stepan – Brown – Wolanin – Stützle
1:26
PK1FTierney – Brown
3:50
PK2FWatson – Paquette
1:51
PK1DCoburn – Gudbranson
1:28
PK2DBrown – Zaitsev
1:22

Current OTT line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

9:59
TORZach HymanPP (John Tavares, William Nylander)tip-in0.10 xG
TOR: Spezza, Brodie, Tavares, Hyman, NylanderOTT: Coburn, Stepan, Watson, Gudbranson
TOR 1 – 0 OTT
19:16
OTTThomas ChabotPP (Drake Batherson, Josh Norris)slap0.15 xG
TOR: Muzzin, Brodie, MarnerOTT: Dadonov, Chabot, Norris, Batherson, Tkachuk
TOR 1 – 1 OTT

2nd period

9:15
TORAlexander Kerfoot (Justin Holl, Ilya Mikheyev)wrist0.02 xG
TOR: Holl, Hyman, Kerfoot, Dermott, MikheyevOTT: Anisimov, Watson, Gudbranson, Paquette, Wolanin
TOR 2 – 1 OTT
10:28
OTTBrady Tkachuk (Nikita Zaitsev, Josh Norris)tip-in0.08 xG
TOR: Brodie, Hyman, Rielly, Marner, MatthewsOTT: Chabot, Zaitsev, Norris, Batherson, Tkachuk
TOR 2 – 2 OTT
12:32
OTTAustin Watson (Braydon Coburn, Nick Paul)snap0.16 xG
TOR: Spezza, Simmonds, Bogosian, Rielly, BarabanovOTT: Coburn, Watson, Tierney, Paul, Chabot
TOR 2 – 3 OTT
15:03
OTTChris Tierney (Nikita Zaitsev, Brady Tkachuk)wrist0.23 xG
TOR: Thornton, Simmonds, Brodie, Rielly, MatthewsOTT: Stepan, Tierney, Brown, Chabot, Zaitsev, Tkachuk
TOR 2 – 4 OTT

3rd period

6:15
OTTDerek Stepan (Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson)wrist0.02 xG
TOR: Thornton, Simmonds, Brodie, Rielly, MatthewsOTT: Stepan, Chabot, Zaitsev, Batherson, Tkachuk
TOR 2 – 5 OTT
7:07
TORJohn TavaresPPwrist0.11 xG
TOR: Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, MatthewsOTT: Coburn, Tierney, Brown, Zaitsev
TOR 3 – 5 OTT

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mitch Marner R	L1	0	0	0	-1	0	0.18	0	0	0	24:22	—	—	52	57
Auston Matthews C	L1	0	0	0	-3	3	0.57	0	1	0	23:05	—	—	53	56
Joe Thornton C	L1	0	0	0	-2	0	0.13	1	1	2	18:09	—	—	60	65
Zach Hyman L	L2	1	0	1	0	2	0.35	2	0	0	20:20	—	—	50	59
Alexander Kerfoot C	L2	1	0	1	+1	4	0.24	0	0	0	14:49	—	—	55	61
Ilya Mikheyev R	L2	0	1	1	+1	1	0.02	1	1	0	14:40	—	—	43	47
William Nylander R	L3	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0	0	2	16:15	—	—	40	68
John Tavares C	L3	1	1	2	0	4	0.69	1	1	0	15:57	—	—	50	72
Jimmy Vesey L	L3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	2	11:25	—	—	44	72
Wayne Simmonds R	L4	0	0	0	-3	2	0.30	0	0	10	10:03	—	—	44	28
Jason Spezza C	L4	0	0	0	-1	0	0.02	0	0	2	8:34	—	—	38	24
Alexander Barabanov L	L4	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	0	4:19	—	—	38	21
Morgan Rielly D	D1	0	0	0	-4	1	0.07	0	1	0	23:22	—	—	47	42
TJ Brodie D	D1	0	0	0	-3	1	0.01	0	0	0	21:44	—	—	33	35
Justin Holl D	D2	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	1	2	0	21:14	—	—	58	76
Jake Muzzin D	D2	0	0	0	0	4	0.14	2	0	0	19:40	—	—	63	73
Travis Dermott D	D3	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	3	2	12:59	—	—	40	58
Zach Bogosian D	D3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	0	11:51	—	—	44	45

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Frederik Andersen(start)	L	24	19	5	.792	2.36	57:20

Ottawa Senators

OTT skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Connor Brown R	L1	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	2	19:20	—	—	63	24
Chris Tierney C	L1	1	0	1	+2	1	0.28	2	0	0	17:31	—	—	61	49
Nick Paul L	L1	0	1	1	+1	0	0.14	2	1	0	14:27	—	—	61	57
Derek Stepan C	L2	1	0	1	+2	3	0.11	1	1	2	16:28	—	—	71	54
Evgenii Dadonov L	L2	0	0	0	0	0	0.14	1	0	0	15:31	—	—	54	20
Tim Stützle C	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	1	0	0	12:11	—	—	40	14
Drake Batherson R	L3	0	2	2	+2	5	0.53	4	1	0	17:08	—	—	54	64
Brady Tkachuk L	L3	1	2	3	+3	5	1.26	5	0	0	16:53	—	—	72	84
Josh Norris C	L3	0	2	2	+1	0	0.00	2	2	0	16:07	—	—	14	24
Austin Watson L	L4	1	0	1	0	1	0.23	1	1	2	12:04	—	—	27	53
Cedric Paquette C	L4	0	0	0	-1	1	0.06	3	3	2	11:11	—	—	27	43
Artem Anisimov C	L4	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	2	0	0	10:17	—	—	47	42
Thomas Chabot D	D1	1	0	1	+4	3	0.17	2	2	4	27:12	—	—	57	68
Nikita Zaitsev D	D1	0	2	2	+3	0	0.02	1	1	0	21:35	—	—	57	65
Erik Gudbranson D	D2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	1	5	0	19:51	—	—	43	30
Christian Wolanin D	D2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.03	0	0	0	15:50	—	—	44	26
Braydon Coburn D	D3	0	1	1	+1	2	0.13	1	0	0	14:35	—	—	60	56
Joshua Brown D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	2	0	14:21	—	—	47	44

OTT goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Matt Murray(start)	W	23	20	3	.870	2.73	59:42

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.