Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa SenatorsJan 16, 2021

FinalSaturday, Jan 16, 2021· Canadian Tire Centre

away

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

3

@

home

Ottawa SenatorsOTT

2

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TOR	1	1	1	3		TOR	10	19	11	40
OTT	1	0	1	2		OTT	7	5	7	19

: TOR 73OTT 36
: TOR 3.26OTT 2.87
PP goals: TOR 1OTT 0
Hits: TOR 15OTT 30
Blocks: TOR 6OTT 21
PIM: TOR 10OTT 8
: TOR 63%OTT 38%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Toronto Maple Leafs edge Ottawa Senators 3–2

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Ottawa Senators 3–2 at OTT. Mitch Marner (TOR) led the scoring with 1G 2A. Matt Murray (OTT) faced 40 shots and stopped 37 (.925), +13 against a season average of 27.3; the loss.

Points
Mitch Marner had a goal and 2 assists (3 points) on 2 shots in 23:46.Marner
Points
Auston Matthews had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 6 shots in 21:50.Matthews
Points
Joe Thornton had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 3 shots in 14:05.Thornton
Goalie
Matt Murray (OTT) faced 40 shots and stopped 37 (.925), +13 against a season average of 27.3; the loss.Murray
Usage
Nick Robertson (TOR) played 2:20, −8:31 down on his 10:51 season average over 5 games.Robertson
New line
New look for OTT: Watson–Paquette–White skated 5:21 together at 5v5 as the L3 trio (0% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Watson Paquette White
Usage
Colin White (OTT) played 11:24, −3:22 down on his 14:46 season average over 44 games.White
Usage
Nick Paul (OTT) played 12:35, −3:34 down on his 16:09 season average over 55 games.Paul

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)OTT attacks right (top on phones) →

OTT
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 109 of 109 attempts · OTT 36 · TOR 73

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

OTT
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

OTT pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 46% of the game, OTT 24%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

OTT

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	OTT
	67	26
	2.28	1.58
	2.21	1.52
	11	11
	2	6
	18	12
	+0.133	−0.133
	46%	24%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Thornton – Marner – Matthews
9:3281% CF
L2Tavares – Vesey – Nylander
8:0672% CF
L3Hyman – Kerfoot – Mikheyev
6:5282% CF
L4Spezza – Simmonds – Robertson
2:0667% CF
D1Brodie – Rielly
15:2768% CF
D2Muzzin – Holl
14:1183% CF
D3Bogosian – Dermott
7:0978% CF

PP1Tavares – Rielly – Nylander – Marner – Matthews
2:27100% CF
PP2Thornton – Simmonds – Rielly – Marner – Matthews
1:53100% CF
PK1FKerfoot – Mikheyev
1:34
PK2FHyman – Marner
0:53
PK1DMuzzin – Holl
4:42
PK2DBogosian – Brodie
1:43

Current TOR line combinations →

Ottawa Senators

L1Tierney – Brown – Paul
9:3133% CF
L2Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk
6:5130% CF
L3Watson – Paquette – White
5:210% CF
L4Dadonov – Stepan – Stützle
4:0438% CF
D1Chabot – Zaitsev
16:1342% CF
D2Gudbranson – Reilly
14:4123% CF
D3Coburn – Brown
10:0217% CF

PP1Dadonov – Chabot – Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk
6:0083% CF
PP2Stepan – Reilly – Brown – White – Stützle
1:55100% CF
PK1FTierney – Brown
2:15
PK2FStepan – Paul
1:04
PK1DGudbranson – Zaitsev
1:32
PK2DCoburn – Brown
1:31

Current OTT line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

10:55
OTTNick Paul (Nikita Zaitsev, Connor Brown)wrist0.16 xG
TOR: Brodie, Hyman, Rielly, Marner, MatthewsOTT: Tierney, Brown, Paul, Chabot, Zaitsev
TOR 0 – 1 OTT
14:17
TORJoe Thornton (Mitch Marner, TJ Brodie)snap0.02 xG
TOR: Thornton, Brodie, Rielly, Marner, MatthewsOTT: Gudbranson, Chabot, Norris, Batherson, Tkachuk
TOR 1 – 1 OTT

2nd period

1:10
TORMitch Marner (Auston Matthews)wrist0.12 xG
TOR: Brodie, Hyman, Rielly, Marner, MatthewsOTT: Stepan, Gudbranson, Reilly, Batherson, Tkachuk
TOR 2 – 1 OTT

3rd period

2:42
TORAuston MatthewsPP (Mitch Marner, Joe Thornton)snap0.07 xG
TOR: Thornton, Simmonds, Rielly, Marner, MatthewsOTT: Coburn, Tierney, Brown, Zaitsev
TOR 3 – 1 OTT
11:44
OTTTim Stützle (Thomas Chabot, Colin White)slap0.10 xG
TOR: Bogosian, Tavares, Rielly, Vesey, NylanderOTT: Dadonov, White, Chabot, Zaitsev, Stützle
TOR 3 – 2 OTT

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mitch Marner R	L1	1	2	3	+1	2	0.27	1	2	4	23:46	—	—	62	54
Auston Matthews C	L1	1	1	2	+1	6	0.69	2	0	0	21:50	—	—	74	69
Joe Thornton C	L1	1	1	2	+1	3	0.22	1	0	0	14:05	—	—	86	94
John Tavares C	L2	0	0	0	-1	4	0.31	2	0	2	18:19	—	—	66	54
William Nylander R	L2	0	0	0	-1	2	0.41	0	0	0	17:03	—	—	71	51
Jimmy Vesey L	L2	0	0	0	-1	3	0.20	2	1	0	15:01	—	—	75	67
Zach Hyman L	L3	0	0	0	0	0	0.05	0	1	2	17:47	—	—	77	52
Ilya Mikheyev R	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	0	2	15:21	—	—	77	57
Alexander Kerfoot C	L3	0	0	0	0	3	0.30	1	0	0	14:39	—	—	75	48
Wayne Simmonds R	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.05	0	0	0	7:33	—	—	67	54
Jason Spezza C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	0	0	0	6:57	—	—	60	46
Nick Robertson L	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	0	0	0	2:20	—	—	50	52
Morgan Rielly D	D1	0	0	0	0	5	0.13	2	0	0	24:43	—	—	61	52
TJ Brodie D	D1	0	1	1	+1	1	0.11	1	1	0	21:45	—	—	68	61
Jake Muzzin D	D2	0	0	0	0	5	0.18	1	0	0	23:25	—	—	80	69
Justin Holl D	D2	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	0	22:26	—	—	82	78
Zach Bogosian D	D3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.04	0	0	0	14:15	—	—	64	40
Travis Dermott D	D3	0	0	0	0	2	0.18	0	0	0	8:57	—	—	79	65

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Jack Campbell(start)	W	19	17	2	.895	2.87	59:48

Ottawa Senators

OTT skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Connor Brown R	L1	0	1	1	+1	0	0.17	0	4	0	21:26	—	—	23	38
Chris Tierney C	L1	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	1	0	17:17	—	—	25	36
Nick Paul L	L1	1	0	1	+1	2	0.19	0	0	0	12:35	—	—	25	29
Drake Batherson R	L2	0	0	0	-2	1	0.01	3	0	0	19:29	—	—	22	25
Brady Tkachuk L	L2	0	0	0	-2	2	0.30	2	0	0	18:53	—	—	39	62
Josh Norris C	L2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.46	2	0	0	15:33	—	—	21	39
Colin White C	L3	0	1	1	+1	1	0.17	2	1	0	11:24	—	—	26	41
Cedric Paquette C	L3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	2	2	10:46	—	—	6	29
Austin Watson L	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	4	2	0	10:28	—	—	21	15
Derek Stepan C	L4	0	0	0	-1	2	0.34	4	2	0	16:04	—	—	42	53
Tim Stützle C	L4	1	0	1	+1	3	0.26	0	0	2	14:52	—	—	44	47
Evgenii Dadonov L	L4	0	0	0	+1	3	0.61	0	0	0	14:06	—	—	43	61
Thomas Chabot D	D1	0	1	1	+1	2	0.12	1	1	2	24:22	—	—	44	60
Nikita Zaitsev D	D1	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	2	0	0	21:48	—	—	39	62
Erik Gudbranson D	D2	0	0	0	-2	2	0.04	3	1	0	19:12	—	—	25	32
Mike Reilly D	D2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.03	1	2	0	17:04	—	—	21	30
Joshua Brown D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	3	2	15:27	—	—	14	26
Braydon Coburn D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	2	0	14:36	—	—	17	30

OTT goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Matt Murray(start)	L	40	37	3	.925	3.26	59:40

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.