Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa SenatorsMar 25, 2021

Final / OTThursday, Mar 25, 2021· Canadian Tire Centre

away

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

3

@

home

Ottawa SenatorsOTT

2

Goals	1	2	3	OT	T		Shots	1	2	3	OT	T
TOR	0	1	1	1	3		TOR	12	17	8	4	41
OTT	1	0	1	0	2		OTT	8	16	6	1	31

: TOR 73OTT 51
: TOR 5.14OTT 3.50
PP goals: TOR 0OTT 0
Hits: TOR 15OTT 29
Blocks: TOR 9OTT 17
PIM: TOR 6OTT 6
: TOR 37%OTT 63%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Toronto Maple Leafs edge Ottawa Senators 3–2 (OT)

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Ottawa Senators 3–2 in overtime at OTT. Justin Holl (TOR) led the scoring with 1G 0A. Anton Forsberg (OTT) faced 41 shots and stopped 38 (.927), +8 against a season average of 33.0; the overtime loss.

Goalie
Anton Forsberg (OTT) faced 41 shots and stopped 38 (.927), +8 against a season average of 33.0; the overtime loss.Forsberg
Luck
TOR scored 3 goals on 5.14 expected goals (73 attempts), well short of its chances.
New line
New look for OTT: Dzingel–Bishop–Formenton skated 7:08 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (37.5% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Dzingel Bishop Formenton
Usage
Zach Hyman (TOR) played 14:41, −4:48 down on his 19:29 season average over 42 games.Hyman
Usage
Ilya Mikheyev (TOR) played 10:40, −3:37 down on his 14:17 season average over 53 games.Mikheyev
Usage
TJ Brodie (TOR) played 25:06, +3:36 up on his 21:30 season average over 55 games.Brodie
Usage
Auston Matthews (TOR) played 24:43, +3:14 up on his 21:29 season average over 51 games.Matthews
Usage
Braydon Coburn (OTT) played 10:57, −5:23 down on his 16:20 season average over 18 games.Coburn

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)OTT attacks right (top on phones) →

OTT
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 124 of 124 attempts · OTT 51 · TOR 73

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

OTT
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

OTT pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 38% of the game, OTT 14%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

OTT

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	OTT
	68	46
	4.62	2.77
	4.51	2.74
	20	12
	2	10
	19	14
	−0.073	+0.073
	38%	14%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Simmonds – Marner – Matthews
12:5858% CF
L2Tavares – Galchenyuk – Nylander
9:3779% CF
L3Thornton – Spezza – Kerfoot
6:5562% CF
L4Hyman – Engvall – Mikheyev
5:5764% CF
D1Brodie – Rielly
17:3854% CF
D2Muzzin – Holl
14:5355% CF
D3Bogosian – Dermott
12:3563% CF

PP1Thornton – Simmonds – Rielly – Marner – Matthews
2:2686% CF
PP2Spezza – Brodie – Tavares – Hyman – Nylander
1:350% CF
PK1FSpezza – Hyman
1:26
PK2FKerfoot – Mikheyev
0:55
PK1DMuzzin – Holl
2:48
PK2DBogosian – Brodie
1:30

Current TOR line combinations →

Ottawa Senators

L1Dadonov – Norris – Tkachuk
10:4039% CF
L2Brown – Paul – White
10:408% CF
L3Tierney – Batherson – Stützle
10:0842% CF
L4Dzingel – Bishop – Formenton
7:0838% CF
D1Chabot – Zaitsev
20:0936% CF
D2Reilly – Zub
14:0740% CF
D3Coburn – Brown
8:4044% CF

PP1Dadonov – Chabot – Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle
2:4550% CF
PP2Dzingel – Reilly – Brown – White – Norris
1:30
PK1FBrown – Paul
1:23
PK2FTierney – Formenton
0:52
PK1DZaitsev – Zub
2:04
PK2DReilly – Brown
0:45

Current OTT line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

18:53
OTTConnor BrownSH (Chris Tierney)wrist0.11 xG
TOR: Spezza, Brodie, Tavares, Hyman, NylanderOTT: Tierney, Brown, Brown, Zaitsev
TOR 0 – 1 OTT

2nd period

14:40
TORIlya Mikheyev (TJ Brodie, Zach Hyman)deflected0.56 xG
TOR: Brodie, Hyman, Rielly, Engvall, MikheyevOTT: Dadonov, Chabot, Zaitsev, Norris, Tkachuk
TOR 1 – 1 OTT

3rd period

10:41
TORJason Spezza (Alexander Kerfoot)snap0.11 xG
TOR: Thornton, Spezza, Muzzin, Holl, KerfootOTT: Dadonov, Chabot, Zaitsev, Norris, Tkachuk
TOR 2 – 1 OTT
13:14
OTTAlex Formenton (Clark Bishop, Ryan Dzingel)wrist0.15 xG
TOR: Thornton, Muzzin, Holl, Hyman, KerfootOTT: Coburn, Dzingel, Brown, Bishop, Formenton
TOR 2 – 2 OTT

OT period

4:42
TORJustin Holl (Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews)wrist0.18 xG
TOR: Holl, Marner, MatthewsOTT: Chabot, Formenton, Batherson
TOR 3 – 2 OTT

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Auston Matthews C	L1	0	1	1	+1	3	0.55	1	0	2	24:43	—	—	62	60
Mitch Marner R	L1	0	1	1	+1	7	0.70	2	1	0	24:04	—	—	61	62
Wayne Simmonds R	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	2	0	0	16:09	—	—	62	57
William Nylander R	L2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.34	0	0	0	19:18	—	—	68	69
John Tavares C	L2	0	0	0	-1	4	0.56	0	0	2	18:25	—	—	64	65
Alex Galchenyuk C	L2	0	0	0	0	3	0.20	1	0	0	12:41	—	—	71	69
Jason Spezza C	L3	1	0	1	0	3	0.14	0	0	0	13:34	—	—	60	50
Alexander Kerfoot C	L3	0	1	1	0	1	0.07	1	1	0	12:41	—	—	47	33
Joe Thornton C	L3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	11:43	—	—	56	32
Zach Hyman L	L4	0	1	1	-1	2	0.63	0	0	0	14:41	—	—	48	63
Ilya Mikheyev R	L4	1	0	1	+1	3	0.79	1	0	0	10:40	—	—	53	82
Pierre Engvall L	L4	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	1	0	0	8:53	—	—	60	81
Morgan Rielly D	D1	0	0	0	+1	3	0.41	1	1	2	25:46	—	—	59	73
TJ Brodie D	D1	0	1	1	0	1	0.08	0	0	0	25:06	—	—	58	73
Justin Holl D	D2	1	0	1	+1	4	0.37	1	2	0	20:36	—	—	56	55
Jake Muzzin D	D2	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	2	4	0	19:25	—	—	57	54
Zach Bogosian D	D3	0	0	0	0	2	0.13	1	0	0	15:08	—	—	64	57
Travis Dermott D	D3	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	1	0	0	14:33	—	—	67	58

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Jack Campbell(start)	W	31	29	2	.935	3.50	64:42

Ottawa Senators

OTT skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Josh Norris C	L1	0	0	0	-2	3	0.95	2	1	0	20:10	—	—	49	40
Brady Tkachuk L	L1	0	0	0	-2	6	0.37	6	1	0	17:57	—	—	44	34
Evgenii Dadonov L	L1	0	0	0	-2	1	0.46	0	1	0	16:00	—	—	41	30
Nick Paul L	L2	0	0	0	0	0	0.14	1	2	0	20:01	—	—	29	26
Connor Brown R	L2	1	0	1	+1	2	0.23	1	1	2	18:19	—	—	26	20
Colin White C	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	2	2	0	12:55	—	—	27	60
Drake Batherson R	L3	0	0	0	-1	2	0.28	3	0	0	17:11	—	—	50	37
Tim Stützle C	L3	0	0	0	0	3	0.26	0	1	0	16:09	—	—	48	33
Chris Tierney C	L3	0	1	1	+1	1	0.02	0	1	0	14:54	—	—	43	38
Alex Formenton L	L4	1	0	1	0	3	0.16	2	0	0	12:44	—	—	32	43
Ryan Dzingel C	L4	0	1	1	+1	1	0.21	2	0	0	12:11	—	—	37	49
Clark Bishop C	L4	0	1	1	+1	1	0.13	2	2	0	8:53	—	—	38	48
Thomas Chabot D	D1	0	0	0	-3	2	0.03	0	2	4	31:18	—	—	38	38
Nikita Zaitsev D	D1	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	2	2	0	25:56	—	—	39	38
Artem Zub D	D2	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	2	0	0	20:10	—	—	37	16
Mike Reilly D	D2	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	19:50	—	—	39	17
Joshua Brown D	D3	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	4	1	0	12:31	—	—	44	50
Braydon Coburn D	D3	0	0	0	+1	1	0.12	0	0	0	10:57	—	—	46	49

OTT goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Anton Forsberg(start)	O	41	38	3	.927	5.14	64:42

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.