Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa SenatorsOct 14, 2021

FinalThursday, Oct 14, 2021· Canadian Tire Centre

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Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	0	2	2		TOR	17	6	25	48
OTT	3	0	0	3		OTT	12	14	10	36

: TOR 75OTT 68
: TOR 5.51OTT 4.97
PP goals: TOR 2OTT 1
Hits: TOR 22OTT 24
Blocks: TOR 15OTT 12
PIM: TOR 8OTT 10
: TOR 54%OTT 46%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Ottawa Senators edge Toronto Maple Leafs 3–2

Ottawa Senators beat Toronto Maple Leafs 3–2 at home. William Nylander (TOR) led the scoring with 1G 1A. TOR's first power-play unit (Spezza, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander and Marner) scored 2 power-play goals on 17 attempts in 3:57 together.

Points
Jason Spezza had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 3 shots in 13:19.Spezza
Points
Tyler Ennis had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 2 shots in 10:15.Ennis
Points
William Nylander had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 6 shots in 22:28.Nylander
PP1
TOR's first power-play unit (Spezza, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander and Marner) scored 2 power-play goals on 17 attempts in 3:57 together.Spezza Tavares Rielly Nylander Marner
Goalie
Anton Forsberg (OTT) faced 48 shots and stopped 46 (.958), +16 against a season average of 31.7; the win.Forsberg
PP1
OTT's first power-play unit (Ennis, Chabot, Norris, Batherson and Stützle) scored 1 power-play goal on 10 attempts in 2:26 together.Ennis Chabot Norris Batherson Stützle
Luck
TOR scored 2 goals on 5.51 expected goals (75 attempts), well short of its chances.
Usage
Shane Pinto (OTT) played 19:11, +7:47 up on his 11:24 season average over 4 games.Pinto

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)OTT attacks right (top on phones) →

OTT
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 143 of 143 attempts · OTT 68 · TOR 75

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

OTT
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

OTT pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 33% of the game, OTT 37%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

OTT

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	OTT
	60	68
	3.96	4.50
	3.51	3.97
	19	19
	4	7
	17	12
	+0.020	−0.020
	33%	37%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Tavares – Ritchie – Marner
8:5535% CF
L2Kerfoot – Nylander – Bunting
6:2940% CF
L3Engvall – Kase – Kampf
5:0767% CF
L4Spezza – Simmonds – Amadio
4:1857% CF
D1Muzzin – Holl
16:0239% CF
D2Brodie – Rielly
14:3744% CF
D3Dermott – Sandin
9:5463% CF

PP1Spezza – Tavares – Rielly – Nylander – Marner
3:57100% CF
PP2Ritchie – Bunting – Engvall – Kase – Sandin
2:18100% CF
PK1FKerfoot – Marner
1:07
PK2FNylander – Engvall
0:30
PK1DBrodie – Rielly
1:26
PK2DMuzzin – Holl
0:50

Current TOR line combinations →

Ottawa Senators

L1Brown – Paul – Pinto
13:0745% CF
L2Norris – Batherson – Stützle
11:5546% CF
L3Ennis – Tierney – Formenton
5:4744% CF
L4Shaw – Sanford – Kelly
2:5757% CF
D1Chabot – Zub
18:4844% CF
D2Holden – Brown
11:2362% CF
D3Mete – Zaitsev
10:4253% CF

PP1Ennis – Chabot – Norris – Batherson – Stützle
2:26100% CF
PP2Tierney – Brown – Sanford – Mete – Pinto
0:42100% CF
PK1FBrown – Paul
2:55
PK2FKelly – Pinto
1:22
PK1DHolden – Zaitsev
3:31
PK2DBrown – Mete
2:38

Current OTT line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

8:31
OTTChris Tierney (Nick Holden, Tyler Ennis)tip-in0.10 xG
TOR: Muzzin, Holl, Kerfoot, Nylander, EngvallOTT: Holden, Ennis, Tierney, Zaitsev, Stützle
TOR 0 – 1 OTT
18:58
OTTTyler EnnisPP (Thomas Chabot, Tim Stützle)tip-in0.12 xG
TOR: Muzzin, Holl, Kerfoot, MarnerOTT: Ennis, Chabot, Norris, Batherson, Stützle
TOR 0 – 2 OTT
19:59
OTTAlex Formenton (Victor Mete)slap0.09 xG
TOR: Muzzin, Holl, Ritchie, Kase, KampfOTT: Brown, Mete, Zaitsev, Formenton, Pinto
TOR 0 – 3 OTT

3rd period

3:11
TORJason SpezzaPP (Morgan Rielly, William Nylander)slap0.07 xG
TOR: Spezza, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, MarnerOTT: Brown, Mete, Kelly, Pinto
TOR 1 – 3 OTT
8:50
TORWilliam NylanderPP (Jason Spezza, John Tavares)wrist0.09 xG
TOR: Spezza, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, MarnerOTT: Holden, Brown, Paul, Zaitsev
TOR 2 – 3 OTT

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mitch Marner R	L1	0	0	0	0	6	1.66	1	0	0	24:20	—	—	49	56
John Tavares C	L1	0	1	1	0	4	0.53	1	2	2	23:12	—	—	45	53
Nick Ritchie L	L1	0	0	0	-1	2	0.23	4	0	0	14:40	—	—	34	24
William Nylander R	L2	1	1	2	-1	6	0.79	1	0	0	22:28	—	—	58	70
Michael Bunting L	L2	0	0	0	0	6	0.72	0	0	0	15:44	—	—	57	51
Alexander Kerfoot C	L2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	13:29	—	—	46	50
Ondrej Kase R	L3	0	0	0	-1	2	0.06	1	1	0	13:42	—	—	53	43
David Kampf C	L3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.13	2	0	0	12:24	—	—	44	32
Pierre Engvall L	L3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	2	12:20	—	—	25	16
Jason Spezza C	L4	1	1	2	0	3	0.15	0	0	0	13:19	—	—	33	13
Wayne Simmonds R	L4	0	0	0	0	3	0.16	0	1	2	8:37	—	—	52	34
Michael Amadio R	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	8:15	—	—	56	35
Justin Holl D	D1	0	0	0	-2	1	0.03	3	4	0	20:52	—	—	40	37
Jake Muzzin D	D1	0	0	0	-2	3	0.16	1	1	2	18:34	—	—	39	41
Morgan Rielly D	D2	0	1	1	0	2	0.34	3	1	0	23:43	—	—	49	35
TJ Brodie D	D2	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	0	2	0	19:48	—	—	45	35
Rasmus Sandin D	D3	0	0	0	0	3	0.26	4	1	0	16:01	—	—	57	78
Travis Dermott D	D3	0	0	0	0	4	0.23	1	1	0	13:17	—	—	56	68

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Petr Mrazek(start)	L	26	23	3	.885	3.79	40:00
Jack Campbell	—	10	10	0	.1000	1.18	19:27

Ottawa Senators

OTT skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Connor Brown R	L1	0	0	0	+1	2	0.23	0	0	0	23:04	—	—	50	45
Nick Paul L	L1	0	0	0	0	2	0.29	4	1	0	20:20	—	—	43	35
Shane Pinto C	L1	0	0	0	+1	4	0.74	0	0	0	19:11	—	—	49	48
Drake Batherson R	L2	0	0	0	0	4	0.47	5	0	0	18:53	—	—	49	48
Josh Norris C	L2	0	0	0	0	3	0.64	0	1	0	17:19	—	—	48	45
Tim Stützle C	L2	0	1	1	+1	1	0.36	0	0	0	16:57	—	—	56	58
Chris Tierney C	L3	1	0	1	+1	1	0.28	0	0	2	13:19	—	—	59	64
Alex Formenton L	L3	1	0	1	+1	2	0.13	3	0	0	11:28	—	—	71	79
Tyler Ennis R	L3	1	1	2	+1	2	0.28	0	0	0	10:15	—	—	43	37
Parker Kelly C	L4	0	0	0	0	3	0.92	0	0	0	9:39	—	—	75	88
Zachary Sanford L	L4	0	0	0	0	3	0.25	1	0	0	9:22	—	—	58	71
Logan Shaw R	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	2	5:05	—	—	67	87
Thomas Chabot D	D1	0	1	1	0	2	0.23	1	0	0	26:24	—	—	48	51
Artem Zub D	D1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	4	2	22:12	—	—	44	48
Nick Holden D	D2	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	3	1	0	17:51	—	—	64	62
Joshua Brown D	D2	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	3	1	2	16:46	—	—	58	51
Nikita Zaitsev D	D3	0	0	0	+2	2	0.08	2	0	2	17:29	—	—	57	55
Victor Mete D	D3	0	1	1	+1	3	0.06	0	3	0	16:08	—	—	55	53

OTT goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Anton Forsberg(start)	W	48	46	2	.958	5.51	60:00

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.