Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa SenatorsMar 18, 2023

Final / SOSaturday, Mar 18, 2023· Canadian Tire Centre

away

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

5

@

home

Ottawa SenatorsOTT

4

Goals	1	2	3	OT	SO	T		Shots	1	2	3	OT	T
TOR	1	2	1	0	1	5		TOR	9	11	7	2	29
OTT	1	1	2	0	0	4		OTT	19	18	12	3	52

: TOR 51OTT 93
: TOR 3.03OTT 4.21
PP goals: TOR 1OTT 0
Hits: TOR 25OTT 34
Blocks: TOR 20OTT 16
PIM: TOR 6OTT 4
: TOR 46%OTT 54%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Toronto Maple Leafs edge Ottawa Senators 5–4 (SO)

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Ottawa Senators 5–4 in a shootout at OTT. Brady Tkachuk (OTT) led the scoring with 2G 0A. Matt Murray (TOR) faced 52 shots and stopped 48 (.923), +23 against a season average of 29.3; the win.

Points
Brady Tkachuk had two goals (2 points) on 8 shots in 23:48.Tkachuk
Points
Calle Jarnkrok had two goals (2 points) on 3 shots in 17:55.Jarnkrok
Points
Mitch Marner had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 4 shots in 25:31.Marner
Points
Tim Stützle had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 3 shots in 27:18.Stützle
Points
Auston Matthews had 2 assists (2 points) on 4 shots in 23:25.Matthews
Points
John Tavares had 2 assists (2 points) in 18:56.Tavares
Points
Travis Hamonic had 2 assists (2 points) on 3 shots in 19:49.Hamonic
Goalie
Matt Murray (TOR) faced 52 shots and stopped 48 (.923), +23 against a season average of 29.3; the win.Murray

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)OTT attacks right (top on phones) →

OTT
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 144 of 144 attempts · OTT 93 · TOR 51

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

OTT
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

OTT pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 18% of the game, OTT 35%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

OTT

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	OTT
	50	85
	2.47	3.48
	2.28	3.24
	12	20
	2	6
	14	23
	−0.026	+0.026
	18%	35%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Tavares – Bunting – Marner
10:1024% CF
L2Jarnkrok – Kerfoot – Matthews
9:5252% CF
L3Nylander – Lafferty – McMann
5:3940% CF
L4Simmonds – Aston-Reese – Kampf
5:2627% CF
D1McCabe – Liljegren
16:5040% CF
D2Brodie – Holl
16:2627% CF
D3Schenn – Rielly
11:3245% CF

PP1Tavares – Rielly – Nylander – Marner – Matthews
2:5533% CF
PP2Jarnkrok – Kerfoot – Lafferty – Bunting – Liljegren
0:360% CF
PK1FMarner – Kampf
1:46
PK2FJarnkrok – Kerfoot
0:36
PK1DBrodie – Holl
1:31
PK2DSchenn – McCabe
0:41

Current TOR line combinations →

Ottawa Senators

L1Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle
14:2750% CF
L2Giroux – DeBrincat – Greig
10:0879% CF
L3Brassard – Gauthier – Pinto
8:2573% CF
L4Watson – Brown – Gambrell
5:0388% CF
D1Hamonic – Chychrun
15:4162% CF
D2Chabot – Brannstrom
14:3663% CF
D3Sanderson – Zub
13:5952% CF

PP1DeBrincat – Batherson – Tkachuk – Sanderson – Stützle
2:14100% CF
PP2Giroux – Brassard – Chabot – Chychrun – Pinto
1:1650% CF
PK1FWatson – Gambrell
1:48
PK2FBrown – Stützle
0:29
PK1DHamonic – Sanderson
2:14
PK2DBrannstrom – Zub
1:06

Current OTT line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

3:11
TORJake McCabe (Mitch Marner, John Tavares)wrist0.11 xG
TOR: Tavares, McCabe, Bunting, Marner, LiljegrenOTT: Giroux, Hamonic, DeBrincat, Chychrun, Greig
TOR 1 – 0 OTT
14:28
OTTJulien Gauthier (Shane Pinto, Erik Brannstrom)tip-in0.07 xG
TOR: Brodie, Holl, Nylander, Aston-Reese, KampfOTT: Brassard, Chabot, Gauthier, Brannstrom, Pinto
TOR 1 – 1 OTT

2nd period

5:32
OTTTim StützleSH (Travis Hamonic)wrist0.04 xG
TOR: Jarnkrok, Kerfoot, Lafferty, Bunting, LiljegrenOTT: Giroux, Brannstrom, Sanderson, Stützle
TOR 1 – 2 OTT
6:09
TORMitch MarnerPP (Morgan Rielly, John Tavares)wrist0.12 xG
TOR: Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, MatthewsOTT: Watson, Gambrell, Brannstrom, Zub
TOR 2 – 2 OTT
9:16
TORCalle Jarnkrok (Auston Matthews, Timothy Liljegren)slap0.10 xG
TOR: Jarnkrok, McCabe, Kerfoot, Matthews, LiljegrenOTT: Batherson, Tkachuk, Sanderson, Stützle, Zub
TOR 3 – 2 OTT

3rd period

9:39
TORCalle Jarnkrok (Auston Matthews, Alexander Kerfoot)wrist0.19 xG
TOR: Jarnkrok, Rielly, McCabe, Kerfoot, MatthewsOTT: Chabot, Brannstrom, Batherson, Tkachuk, Stützle
TOR 4 – 2 OTT
10:42
OTTBrady Tkachuk (Tim Stützle, Travis Hamonic)wrist0.19 xG
TOR: Brodie, Tavares, Holl, Nylander, MarnerOTT: Hamonic, Chychrun, Batherson, Tkachuk, Stützle
TOR 4 – 3 OTT
19:49
OTTBrady Tkachuk (Claude Giroux, Thomas Chabot)wrist0.06 xG
TOR: Holl, McCabe, Marner, KampfOTT: Giroux, Chabot, DeBrincat, Batherson, Tkachuk, Stützle
TOR 4 – 4 OTT

Decided in the shootout: TOR 5 – 4 OTT.

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mitch Marner R	L1	1	1	2	0	4	0.28	1	0	0	25:31	—	—	27	29
John Tavares C	L1	0	2	2	0	0	0.00	3	0	0	18:56	—	—	37	36
Michael Bunting L	L1	0	0	0	0	3	0.33	0	0	0	13:10	—	—	35	54
Auston Matthews C	L2	0	2	2	+2	4	0.60	1	0	0	23:25	—	—	58	83
Calle Jarnkrok C	L2	2	0	2	+1	3	0.78	0	0	0	17:55	—	—	61	88
Alexander Kerfoot C	L2	0	1	1	+1	2	0.23	2	0	0	16:04	—	—	45	69
William Nylander R	L3	0	0	0	-2	2	0.04	0	0	0	16:53	—	—	45	27
Sam Lafferty C	L3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.08	0	2	0	13:10	—	—	28	26
Bobby McMann C	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.20	1	0	0	7:00	—	—	35	28
David Kampf C	L4	0	0	0	-1	2	0.15	3	0	0	18:03	—	—	24	7
Zachary Aston-Reese L	L4	0	0	0	-1	0	0.04	0	0	0	11:03	—	—	21	7
Wayne Simmonds R	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	0	6:44	—	—	22	6
Jake McCabe D	D1	1	0	1	+3	2	0.14	0	3	0	23:49	—	—	43	65
Timothy Liljegren D	D1	0	1	1	+1	2	0.09	3	2	2	22:52	—	—	41	62
TJ Brodie D	D2	0	0	0	-2	1	0.02	0	3	2	21:14	—	—	29	21
Justin Holl D	D2	0	0	0	-2	0	0.02	3	7	2	20:58	—	—	27	22
Morgan Rielly D	D3	0	1	1	+1	2	0.04	2	2	0	20:29	—	—	52	45
Luke Schenn D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	0	13:09	—	—	40	21

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Matt Murray(start)	W	52	48	4	.923	4.21	65:00

Ottawa Senators

OTT skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Tim Stützle C	L1	1	1	2	0	3	0.34	2	0	0	27:18	—	—	49	34
Brady Tkachuk L	L1	2	0	2	-1	8	0.83	4	1	0	23:48	—	—	51	44
Drake Batherson R	L1	0	0	0	-1	4	0.15	4	0	0	22:52	—	—	53	44
Claude Giroux R	L2	0	1	1	0	8	0.68	1	0	0	21:05	—	—	71	58
Alex DeBrincat R	L2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.23	1	0	0	20:04	—	—	74	63
Ridly Greig C	L2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.28	1	0	2	12:20	—	—	79	78
Shane Pinto C	L3	0	1	1	+1	6	0.61	1	2	0	15:00	—	—	68	75
Derick Brassard C	L3	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	3	0	0	13:17	—	—	67	73
Julien Gauthier R	L3	1	0	1	+1	2	0.23	2	0	0	10:19	—	—	70	70
Austin Watson L	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	2	0	0	9:10	—	—	69	100
Dylan Gambrell C	L4	0	0	0	0	3	0.27	1	1	0	8:33	—	—	54	56
Patrick Brown C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	4	0	0	8:20	—	—	59	74
Jakob Chychrun D	D1	0	0	0	0	4	0.05	1	0	2	21:22	—	—	69	61
Travis Hamonic D	D1	0	2	2	0	3	0.07	3	3	0	19:49	—	—	62	57
Thomas Chabot D	D2	0	1	1	0	0	0.05	1	4	0	23:14	—	—	66	59
Erik Brannstrom D	D2	0	1	1	+1	5	0.11	1	0	0	16:27	—	—	64	57
Jake Sanderson D	D3	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	1	4	0	23:07	—	—	56	59
Artem Zub D	D3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	1	1	0	17:06	—	—	56	59

OTT goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Mads Sogaard(start)	O	29	25	4	.862	3.03	63:10

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.